runupthescore Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Can any confirm what is happening in the areas that are being identified as ZR? In Marshall Twp just south of cranberry and it’s rain. There was a little glaze on a metal railing about an hour ago but it’s gone now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runupthescore Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 If you believe this it’s uh…touch and go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I think tonight will get a little dicey. it doesn't take much accretion to cause problems. Hopefully we get atleast an inch of snow to freshen things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: I think tonight will get a little dicey. it doesn't take much accretion to cause problems. Hopefully we get atleast an inch of snow to freshen things up. Agreed. Glad the snow largely survived the warm part of this week but what’s left looks like hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, donyewest said: Woo! Looks like the metro is right outside the edge of the guidance there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 31 here with rain picking up. Nothing accreting on surfaces at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Well 1” of zr qpf doesn’t mean 1” accretion, correct? I don’t subscribe to Pivotal premium but I know there are maps for more realistic accretion. What % of zr qpf usually “sticks”? Right, some models just show basically (If Surface Temperature is <=32) and precipitation is liquid based on higher levels of the atmosphere being above 32. Then show as ice. It's literally just a total of how much qpf falls as rain while surface is at or below 32. Pivotal does have ice maps that utilize the FRAM method which is much more accurate at depicting actual accretion but they are for pay only. It's not a simple this % will accrete type deal, you need to take into account surface and air temperature, solar radiation, albedo of the object, winds, latent heat release and that effect on already accreted ice, how thick the warm layer is (is the droplet super cooled or above freezing) even the kinetic energy of the droplet when it hits the object. Needless to say it's a lot of complicated interdependent factors lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Looks like the metro is right outside the edge of the guidance there That lines up pretty well with where guidance indicates the front slows / gets hung up. It would make sense that areas just to the west of that line will have freezing rain for most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 met from another forum Surface temps appear to be a bit colder than forecast, KPIT is down to 31/29 in west Pittsburgh, and KAGC is now down to 33/32 in the southeast part of the Burgh. Front has cleared all parts of the Burgh, which is seen with both airports now reporting a north wind. Only a matter of time before we begin to ice up as temps continue to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Right, some models just show basically (If Surface Temperature is <=32) and precipitation is liquid based on higher levels of the atmosphere being above 32. Then show as ice. It's literally just a total of how much qpf falls as rain while surface is at or below 32. Pivotal does have ice maps that utilize the FRAM method which is much more accurate at depicting actual accretion but they are for pay only. It's not a simple this % will accrete type deal, you need to take into account surface and air temperature, solar radiation, albedo of the object, winds, latent heat release and that effect on already accreted ice, how thick the warm layer is (is the droplet super cooled or above freezing) even the kinetic energy of the droplet when it hits the object. Needless to say it's a lot of complicated interdependent factors lol Would think that most of those factors work against efficient ice accretion during the day today even in areas that are below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: met from another forum Surface temps appear to be a bit colder than forecast, KPIT is down to 31/29 in west Pittsburgh, and KAGC is now down to 33/32 in the southeast part of the Burgh. Front has cleared all parts of the Burgh, which is seen with both airports now reporting a north wind. Only a matter of time before we begin to ice up as temps continue to drop. Looks like that wind shift occurred at around 3:00 this morning at PIT and between 4:00 and 5:00 at AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Seeing a bit more ice accrual now, especially on the bird feeder. Rhododendrons have icicles hanging from the leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Finally dropped to 31.5 after 2 hours at 31.6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 What are forecasts saying down there. Looks like a big ice storm. 20 inches predicted up here in rochester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: That’s a fairly large push forward in their timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 33.1°. Holding steady since 8:35 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: met from another forum Surface temps appear to be a bit colder than forecast, KPIT is down to 31/29 in west Pittsburgh, and KAGC is now down to 33/32 in the southeast part of the Burgh. Front has cleared all parts of the Burgh, which is seen with both airports now reporting a north wind. Only a matter of time before we begin to ice up as temps continue to drop. Wouldn't the front already being through help cool the upper levels at some point? I mean even if it gets stuck just past the county, wouldn't the cold air up above catch up to the front? This is a weird one, so I'm not sure I understand all the dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Wouldn't the front already being through help cool the upper levels at some point? I mean even if it gets stuck just past the county, wouldn't the cold air up above catch up to the front? This is a weird one, so I'm not sure I understand all the dynamics. HRRR and the like even have modest warming (a degree or two) before it starts to cool back down. It’s these kinds of storms that make me realize how much I don’t know about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Is that little wedge of snow nosing into beaver county legit on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Looking at the national radar...This thing is a monster. Mexico to Maine and Missouri to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: Looking at the national radar...This thing is a monster. Mexico to Maine and Missouri to the coast. For being a weak low pressure there is a ton of moisture transport with this thing. Pretty cool to see on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Not in our area, but the NWS in Charleston has upgraded some of its southeast Ohio counties to an Ice Storm Warning. Now talking about potential for widespread power outages and up to 3/4" of ice accumulation. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 1102 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 KYZ101-102-OHZ067-075-083-084-040015- /O.UPG.KRLX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220204T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KRLX.IS.W.0001.220203T1602Z-220204T1200Z/ Greenup-Carter-Morgan-Athens-Jackson OH-Vinton- Including the cities of Flatwoods, Raceland, Russell, Grayson, Olive Hill, Carter Caves State Park, Grayson Lake State Park, McConnelsville, Stockport, Athens, Jackson, Wellston, Oak Hill, McArthur, and Hamden 1102 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing. Snow accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of three tenths to three quarters of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Expect widespread power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just threw the frisbee with the dog out front and no ice yet. (North of 422 Butler) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just came home from out running errands. My temp is still holding at 33.4. Driving on Mcknight road and about is was 36 in my car. Rain has picked up to moderate. According to everyone here posting most of us from central Allegheny county and east won't be changing until evening. I guess that's good to keep the ice down but I think we will still see the worst ice tonight. The Canadian doesn't have us switching to snow until after 1:00 am and then we get a couple inches tomorrow morning. Blustery and cold tomorrow with snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, north pgh said: Just came home from out running errands. My temp is still holding at 33.4. Driving on Mcknight road and about is was 36 in my car. Rain has picked up to moderate. According to everyone here posting most of us from central Allegheny county and east won't be changing until evening. I guess that's good to keep the ice down but I think we will still see the worst ice tonight. The Canadian doesn't have us switching to snow until after 1:00 am and then we get a couple inches tomorrow morning. Blustery and cold tomorrow with snow showers. The Canadian is always warmer than every other guidance it seems. I'm guessing we switch over around dinner time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The Canadian is always warmer than every other guidance it seems. I'm guessing we switch over around dinner time. In these situations, the warmest guidance often wins so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canadian nails it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: In these situations, the warmest guidance often wins so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canadian nails it. This is opposite though of when we have WAA driving up from the SW. isn’t really the same scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 50 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Wouldn't the front already being through help cool the upper levels at some point? I mean even if it gets stuck just past the county, wouldn't the cold air up above catch up to the front? This is a weird one, so I'm not sure I understand all the dynamics. With the air being less dense up there, you would think so. Still much to learn I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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