TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Just for fun at this point, but this is an incredible GFS run. Snowstorm, Arctic outbreak, rinse and repeat. We have 27” piled up through hour 300, parts of SW Ohio are pushing 4 feet. Modeled snow depth at hour 300: Parts of SW Ohio buried under 40" of snow. Yeah, I'm thinking that's not going to be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: You can’t say that and not post maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Holy cow. And that's only until the morning of the 15th! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Holy cow. And that's only until the morning of the 15th! Until 18z, we can pretend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, north pgh said: Agree maybe with the cold more chances for Clippers Thing is, the ensembles generally have moved back to a below normal temp look for much of the period, which I think is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: RAP looks like a big hit. Looks like the short, range rapid refresh models have done a 180 on the storm. So, are we all happy again, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: So, are we all happy again, lol. I hope so... but not because anyone really expects to get 10 clean inches of snow out of this in our local area.. If so I can already hear the crying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Everything I've seen the FRAM method is way more accurate (still not perfect) in forecasting ice accretion so I'm glad you posted a map that's utilizing that. If anyone needs any bed time reading, here is agreat article on the science of freezing rain: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/31/4/waf-d-15-0118_1.xml 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Curious as to what the NWS does as far as advisories and warnings. NWS CLE went with an advisory in its far SE counties, but the current forecasts call for around a quarter of inch or more of ice in parts of PBZ's warning area. Could see the advisory get sandwiched in between warnings, perhaps PBZ ends up going with an advisory in its northernmost east Ohio counties to kind of line up with that and then warnings further south where the more substantial ice is expected. It looks probable that everywhere not in the watch will get a WWA for the possibility of a glaze to a tenth of an inch of icing. The current watch area is the wildcard. Probably warning level on snowfall for I-80 area, and for icing in parts of East Ohio, the West Virginia panhandle and possibly parts of SW PA. May be a zone of advisories in between where neither snow, nor ice would warrant a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Curious as to what the NWS does as far as advisories and warnings. I'd bet they are following the WPC: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wso/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Curious as to what the NWS does as far as advisories and warnings. NWS CLE went with an advisory in its far SE counties, but the current forecasts call for around a quarter of inch or more of ice in parts of PBZ's warning area. Could see the advisory get sandwiched in between warnings, perhaps PBZ ends up going with an advisory in its northernmost east Ohio counties to kind of line up with that and then warnings further south where the more substantial ice is expected. It looks probable that everywhere not in the watch will get a WWA for the possibility of a glaze to a tenth of an inch of icing. The current watch area is the wildcard. Probably warning level on snowfall for I-80 area, and for icing in parts of East Ohio, the West Virginia panhandle and possibly parts of SW PA. May be a zone of advisories in between where neither snow, nor ice would warrant a warning? That's my guess, maybe a band 2 -3 counties wide in OH where snow and ice totals due to sleet both fall under criteria for a warning. I agree advisories get extended east to areas that currently have nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 In theory, an advisory gets issued for areas that even see as much as a drop of freezing rain, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Regardless of how much ice snow sleet we get exactly. It is looking highly likely that tomorrow night people should stay indoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, TimB84 said: In theory, an advisory gets issued for areas that even see as much as a drop of freezing rain, right? Correct, "Snow accumulations of 3 inches over 12 hours, any freezing rain accumulations less than ¼ inch, or a high impact snow/ice event." https://www.weather.gov/pbz/wwacriteria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 and looking at the Euro we are talking about historic levels of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Regardless of how much ice snow sleet we get exactly. It is looking highly likely that tomorrow night people should stay indoors. I am exceptionally worried about essentially being stuck at work. I work till about 430 and while I know I can get in fine I’m concerned about getting home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 WSW up in Allegheny Co. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. Ice accumulations between one tenth and three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Road conditions can be found by visiting your states Department of Transportation website. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I am exceptionally worried about essentially being stuck at work. I work till about 430 and while I know I can get in fine I’m concerned about getting home. If you have to be stuck somewhere, I’d suggest it be anywhere but work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Yuck. The text of the WSW means it isn't really being issued because of snow (no >6" in 12hr)... >0.25" of freezing rain then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, donyewest said: Yuck. The text of the WSW means it isn't really being issued because of snow (no >6" in 12hr)... >0.25" of freezing rain then? Yes. On the plus side, at least it's kind of a marginal warning. Doesn't look like they expect widespread 0.25"+ ice accretion given the range (0.1-0.3"), so there might be some isolated power issues but it doesn't look it's going to be a massive ice storm. Let's hope the NWS forecasts pans out, and some of the higher modeled totals do not occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Might be the first time I’ve yawned while reading a winter storm warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Might be the first time I’ve yawned while reading a winter storm warning. I was thinking that myself. They must think that the front isn't gonna push through too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Draw a line from City of Pittsburgh to Clarion, the further North / West you go will be rapidly increasing impacts. South and East of that line rapidly decreasing impacts. That's my take based on looking at all the 6z data / 12z NAM. Still almost 36 hours until we get into the part of the storm we are all interested in, so any minor adjustments one way or the other will have big influence on sensible weather. Slower / Less amped look of that wave is what we want, but the trends have been slightly in the opposite direction on the GFS / NAM so lots of stuff to track / analyze. The front really slows down as I mentioned before, and there is some warm nose influence as the freezing line even bumps NW a little bit. Looks like the counties NWS has highlighted in the watch currently is a good call although I could see an expansion eastward with advisories. Most counties currently in the watch would hit warning criteria based on freezing rain. I think there will be last minute shifts that will drive us nut - But this is the accurate story to me as well. Since I’m a bit NW of that line, hoping for more snow. Certainly support for 6”+ N of the city - just TBD if that starts at 5 miles or 50 miles. We’d be in better shape if we get a little more eastern progression before the main wave comes and tries to advect warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: If you have to be stuck somewhere, I’d suggest it be anywhere but work. I’m probably calling off. I’m not about to have it start icing up around noon and wrecking going home. snow is one thing but ice I won’t ever mess with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: I was thinking that myself. They must think that the front isn't gonna push through too fast. Good thing the warning starts at 4am so people can panic about their morning commute in a 39 degree rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18z HRRR is interesting. Basically goes straight from rain to sleet in Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I’m probably calling off. I’m not about to have it start icing up around noon and wrecking going home. snow is one thing but ice I won’t ever mess with. I still think any travel issues around the city wont be to at least 6pm - 7pm. I'm by no means an expert though so do what you gotta do. I'm fortunate enough I'll be able monitor obs tomorrow and if it looks like things might get icy sooner I can head out early. Might just be easier for some to not go in verse to trying and leave early. Friday morning commute should certainly be the main problem time as we should be in the lower 20s by then and precipitation still coming down, of what form who knows lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Guess who is probably taking off tomorrow night.... Yeah I really don't want to deal with accidents all over the city again. Last time we got snow and ice I fell on back and we had to shovel, salt, and break the ice off the street to get cars out of the James Street parking garage. HRRR looks way colder fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I still think any travel issues around the city wont be to at least 6pm - 7pm. I'm by no means an expert though so do what you gotta do. I'm fortunate enough I'll be able monitor obs tomorrow and if it looks like things might get icy sooner I can head out early. Might just be easier for some to not go in verse to trying and leave early. Friday morning commute should certainly be the main problem time as we should be in the lower 20s by then and precipitation still coming down, of what form who knows lol. We already have some patients calling and cancelling tomorrow morning. Can't say I'm really surprised based on the timing of the Winter Storm Warning even though impact should be later on as you stated. I'm probably in wait and see mode about leaving/closing early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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