MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Early on (only thru 18 hr) looking a little more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Changes through 36 hrs are pretty negligible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Changes through 36 hrs are pretty negligible More zr than 18z total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I also can't believe one of you literally created an account on reddit to stalk me. WHat the hell is your problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: More zr than 18z total. Yes. As the model continued, the GFS is maybe 25 miles SE of the HRRR with that nasty band of zr. 3k right in between the two. GFS would be a rough day for anyone in the metro and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Solid swath of 6” across Allegheny County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The most notable thing form the 00z so far is the narrow band of HEAVY zr that is showing up consistently on the modeling. It has been clear on all so far. The position of that band will be a very rough patch for whoever is under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 We need the Canadian to come to the GFS. I still think the NAM has precip issues that hopefully can come back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Canadian no change. Tomorrow at noon we need to see the models come together somehow. Still a lot of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: I also can't believe one of you literally created an account on reddit to stalk me. WHat the hell is your problem? That's next level lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Go Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: Go Euro figured I was the only crazy bastard still awake. Looks about as good as I think this can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: figured I was the only crazy bastard still awake. Looks about as good as I think this can. Its on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Lock it in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: The most notable thing form the 00z so far is the narrow band of HEAVY zr that is showing up consistently on the modeling. It has been clear on all so far. The position of that band will be a very rough patch for whoever is under it. But again, if it's heavy that'd likely lead to more run off, correct? What are the temps at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Up to 0.5” ice is back in play on the new nws forecast maps just a tick to the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Really looking like an ice storm or nothing. Really at this point just want a miracle and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Really looking like an ice storm or nothing. Really at this point just want a miracle and rain. I'll take ice to a few inches of snow on the back end. 33 and rain does nothing for me but I can understand if you are worried about driving in the ice. Thursday PM commute may be a tricky one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Southeast tier of CLE counties got an advisory, while the rest of their counties got a warning, if that’s any indicator of what product PBZ issues today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, dj3 said: I'll take ice to a few inches of snow on the back end. 33 and rain does nothing for me but I can understand if you are worried about driving in the ice. Thursday PM commute may be a tricky one. Would guess that the warm air holds on long enough not to snarl the PM commute, but people drive like idiots in rain too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6z euro ticked north west a bit it looks like judging by tropical tidbits products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Would guess that the warm air holds on long enough not to snarl the PM commute, but people drive like idiots in rain too. Yea that agrees with the NWS point and click forecast too. GFS is the earliest with the changeover it looks like. This will be a tricky forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, dj3 said: Yea that agrees with the NWS point and click forecast too. GFS is the earliest with the changeover it looks like. This will be a tricky forecast for sure. HRRR has 33-34 and rain in and around the city through at least 6pm tomorrow, while a steady freezing rain falls all day near the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Actually that HRRR run is an unmitigated disaster. Upwards of an inch of zr in a band from the airport through Wexford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Actually that HRRR run is an unmitigated disaster. Upwards of an inch of zr in a band from the airport through Wexford. With temps starting to crash into the 20’s. Hopefully am the models are overdoing freezing rain and it’s more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 So I compared when the 2M temperatures fell below 32 on the 6z GFS to 6z Euro, both have it through Allegheny County by 00z Friday (7PM Thursday) with about .75 - 1 inch of qpf over the next 24 hours afterwards. NAM is similar but about 6 hours slower. That's going to be my benchmark for comparing whether we see the front slow down more. Euro has been speeding it up and GFS slowing it down, but they are both about the same so that might have just been the goalposts narrowing. The frustrating part is the front makes decent progress, then gets hung up right before it passes through Allegheny county Thursday afternoon. I think if that second wave slows down the front probably clears sooner. The upper levels are really going to come down to nowcast time, using the surface freezing temperature as a benchmark to see how this is trending should give some insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, TimB84 said: HRRR has 33-34 and rain in and around the city through at least 6pm tomorrow, while a steady freezing rain falls all day near the airport. 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Actually that HRRR run is an unmitigated disaster. Upwards of an inch of zr in a band from the airport through Wexford. If i had to take a guess at it, I would think the line of ZR is further north and west. The warm advection always wins around here. If the GFS is realized, then maybe we are looking a little rougher for the ZR in the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Funny that we never jackpot on snow but looks like we are in it to jackpot on freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: If i had to take a guess at it, I would think the line of ZR is further north and west. The warm advection always wins around here. If the GFS is realized, then maybe we are looking a little rougher for the ZR in the metro. Oh for sure, warm advection will push the rain line further north than modeled 9 times out of 10, and even if this is that rare exception, I suppose ice totals would be reduced by the fact that some of the event is occurring during the day with temps close to freezing and ground temperatures probably above freezing in many instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 this would be a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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