KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: It happens but crying about every miss to the south east or NW isn't helping. We will eventually get a great memorable storm but it's very difficult for everything to line up perfectly for our area. 1950 redux could be lurking around the corner. I don’t need a 1950 storm. I’d like more than one storm in the last 12 years that we didn’t look at models two days out and get half of what is expected. The only recent one I remember is last years December storm. Almost everything else had underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Maybe it’s not our climate that’s the problem, but the models that don’t understand our climate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 That had to be a toss run just looks really wonky. 3k not finished yet but looks better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Our climate is nowhere near as bad as it’s been recently. Until the storm last year we had only a few 6+ inch storm even in the previous 10 years. We've been above our average each year for most of the last decade. Our average snowfall actually went up after 2010-2019. We had a top 5 storm all time to start the decade and another 10" storm in there. Numerous 6-10" and a lot of 4-6" also. This decade we've already had a 10" storm and a 9" storm. This is exactly our climo and even exceeding it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, dj3 said: That had to be a toss run just looks really wonky. 3k not finished yet but looks better Thats what I am saying. The NAM run just looked strange. The interesting thing about the 00z so far (and it has trended this way a little today) is that the storm appears more amped. Yesterday we saw a flattening of the system as a whole and today that ridge is popping just a little bit more. Interested to see what the other models do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Man, every single storm, KPIT walks himself into a pile on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just an observation. 0z NAM has the low up in northern New Jersey at 1:00 am Friday and the Gfs and cmc have it in Virginia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said: We've been above our average each year for most of the last decade. Our average snowfall actually went up after 2010-2019. We had a top 5 storm all time to start the decade and another 10" storm in there. Numerous 6-10" and a lot of 4-6" also. This is exactly our climo and even exceeding it. Whatever, I’m done arguing. Our winters have been crap for ably a decade with one good storm in that time. but hey, if you’re happy with a storm given 7 inches, dry slotting, and mixing when we were expected to get a foot more power to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Man, every single storm, KPIT walks himself into a pile on. Maybe he thrives on it. Makes him stronger, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, north pgh said: Just an observation. 0z NAM has the low up in northern New Jersey at 1:00 am Friday and the Gfs and cmc have it in Virginia. 3K also has it significantly further south than the NAM --> At least so far in the run. Still waiting for it to run its course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Whatever, I’m done arguing. Our winters have been crap for ably a decade with one good storm in that time. but hey, if you’re happy with a storm given 7 inches, dry slotting, and mixing when we were expected to get a foot more power to you. So, winter 13-14, 14-15, 17-18, 20-21 were crap? There were some bad and average, but nearly have were great. What do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: Nah. You guys just go looking for it. Everyone melted this afternoon and you all decided to pile on me. No way. All we are asking for is a little positive energy. No wishcasting, but some good positive vibes. We all understand the challenges for winter weather in this area. It is what it is. Lets enjoy the ride and laugh along the way 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: KPitt is starting to rub off on you Maybe, but even the text of the watch is now 3-5” of snow with up to a tenth of ice. That’s advisory level and not watch or warning worthy no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Maybe, but even the text of the watch is now 3-5” of snow with up to a tenth of ice. That’s advisory level and not watch or warning worthy no matter how you slice it. Wouldn’t the WSW be because of the ice putting up to that level, beyond the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Maybe, but even the text of the watch is now 3-5” of snow with up to a tenth of ice. That’s advisory level and not watch or warning worthy no matter how you slice it. I think they keep it there because of the uncertainty in the forecast. We are talking about the FZR line at the edge of the county. Close call and a tough call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3k NAM looks like an icy mess alot colder than the 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3K is nearing the end of the run on TT. Its definitely better than the reg NAM. Cooler and def more interesting. Pretty rough on the FZR though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 3K also has it significantly further south than the NAM --> At least so far in the run. Still waiting for it to run its course. It’s also south/east and earlier with freezing line pushing through compared to the 18z run. All I need to ignore the 12k run is the fact that hour 54 essentially has no precipitation anywhere in PA compared to its previous run where the entire state was engulfed. The nam often seems super inconsistent and jumpy to me. Don’t get me wrong I’d rather it show a big hit for us but I don’t think it should be weighted the same as the gfs or euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Wouldn’t the WSW be because of the ice putting up to that level, beyond the snow. How much ice combined with a low end advisory snowfall is worthy of a watch/warning? Surely not 0.0x”, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Wouldn’t the WSW be because of the ice putting up to that level, beyond the snow. Winter Storm Watch: [WS.A] Potential for a blizzard, heavy snowfall, or ice storm within the next 18 to 48 hours. Issued when there is a 50% confidence or greater of at least 6 inches of snow over 12 hours, or at least 8 inches of snow over 24 hours, and/or a ¼ inch of ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Winter Storm Watch: [WS.A] Potential for a blizzard, heavy snowfall, or ice storm within the next 18 to 48 hours. Issued when there is a 50% confidence or greater of at least 6 inches of snow over 12 hours, or at least 8 inches of snow over 24 hours, and/or a ¼ inch of ice. 3-5” of snow and up to 0.1” of ice both would seem to fall well short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: 3-5” of snow and up to 0.1” of ice both would seem to fall well short. Why does this bother you? Whether it is an advisory or warning it’s going to be slick driving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, north pgh said: Why does this bother you? Whether it is an advisory or warning it’s going to be slick driving. Because the watch only exists for continuity purposes at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 3-5” of snow and up to 0.1” of ice both would seem to fall well short. I still think that it is for the potential. HRRR is dropping more than 1" on ice on Beaver county with almost nothing in eastern AGC. Little tiny shifts make big differences here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nws will drop to advisory overnight if they have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: Nws will drop to advisory overnight if they have to. Of course they will, but pretty sure PBZ leads the nation by a wide margin in watches that get downgraded to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Of course they will, but pretty sure PBZ leads the nation by a wide margin in watches that get downgraded to advisories. I wonder if there is actually a site that can display that graphic. That would be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 What happens if the Euro and gfs both come in further south. I'm sure that's why they are always cautious since our are seems like an absolute nightmare to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It’s like the boy who cried wolf except we keep coming back for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS is running... Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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