Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[TimB]

Ukie trended warmer.

[CoraopolisWx]

Wow, GFS has an ole fashioned sleet bomb. Lol

[MikeB_01]

27 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Ukie trended warmer.

Yes.. Just a little. If I had to guess, the movement on that model would lead me to think more freezing rain. The warm air is deeper on that model than others. 

 

So less snow, more FZR 

[MikeB_01]

12z GEFS

[MikeB_01]

12z GEFS Prob of 6+"

[dj3]

So close. I'd feel better if it wasn't the southern outlier right now. 

[MikeB_01]

12z GEFS Panels

[TimB]

Euro with a slight tick in the right direction. Maybe not enough, but when is it ever?

[TheClimateChanger]

Baby steps on the Euro:

 

[dj3]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Euro with a slight tick in the right direction. Maybe not enough, but when is it ever?

It was but we probably need 1-2 more of those ticks without going backwards. GFS seems to linger the moisture longer as well. 

ETA: I didn't see hour 78 at that point. I guess the Euro does have some lingering precip as well just seems lighter than the GFS on the back edge. 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Euro with a slight tick in the right direction. Maybe not enough, but when is it ever?

I'd say a bit more than a slight tick. Now gets heavier snows (6, 7 inches) into parts of Beaver and Butler Counties. Not quite up to the GFS's totals of around a foot. But certainly increases likelihood of a decent snowfall (5"+) for north and west of the city.

[TheClimateChanger]

Our south ticks are killing the storm. Now looks like a rather pedestrian snow event (7-10 inches) for most of northern Ohio and western New York. Maybe a few lollipops up to a foot in the favored areas with a bit of lake/orographic enhancement.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Our south ticks are killing the storm. Now looks like a rather pedestrian snow event (7-10 inches) for most of northern Ohio and western New York. Maybe a few lollipops up to a foot in the favored areas with a bit of lake/orographic enhancement.

By the time it trends here, might be under 6" everywhere. 

[jwilson]

At this point, I'm just hoping the models are under-developing surface warmth.  Looking at the NAM, for example, we'd be talking about significant icing.  The kind of ice that threatens power outages and tree damage, among other things.  12-18" of frozen precipitation and almost none of it is snow.  A fairly thick warm layer from 700-850 for most of the duration.  Maybe that dryslotting could help cut back precip totals, as well, but pretty much all the models have us approaching 2" of total precip.

With snow mostly off the table, I'd rather have plain rain.  The lower-res models show more of a sleet bomb.  Pretty rare to get measurably accumulating sleet.

[Ahoff]

26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

By the time it trends here, might be under 6" everywhere. 

Better than a half inch of ice.

[Ahoff]

6 minutes ago, jwilson said:

At this point, I'm just hoping the models are under-developing surface warmth.  Looking at the NAM, for example, we'd be talking about significant icing.  The kind of ice that threatens power outages and tree damage, among other things.  12-18" of frozen precipitation and almost none of it is snow.  A fairly thick warm layer from 700-850 for most of the duration.  Maybe that dryslotting could help cut back precip totals, as well, but pretty much all the models have us approaching 2" of total precip.

With snow mostly off the table, I'd rather have plain rain.  The lower-res models show more of a sleet bomb.  Pretty rare to get measurably accumulating sleet.

It is?

[Burghblizz]

26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Our south ticks are killing the storm. Now looks like a rather pedestrian snow event (7-10 inches) for most of northern Ohio and western New York. Maybe a few lollipops up to a foot in the favored areas with a bit of lake/orographic enhancement.

Those areas aren’t staying in the waves of precip as long due to the slightly more progressive nature. So it was more timing as opposed to system strength.

GFS has a chance to be the king here. I feel like others are trending to it more than it’s trending to others. But you still have to be concerned about a tick the wrong way. 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Those areas aren’t staying in the waves of precip as long due to the slightly more progressive nature. So it was more timing as opposed to system strength.

GFS has a chance to be the king here. I feel like others are trending to it more than it’s trending to others. But you still have to be concerned about a tick the wrong way. 

Yeah, you are right. And it's not exactly dry. Still shows 2" of total precipitation nosing into western Allegheny, with a widespread 1.3-1.8" for all of northern Ohio. I'm actually a little bit surprised the snow map is as paltry as it is for those areas (even at 10:1). Must be a bit more mixed precipitation up that way versus the GFS solution.

[TimB]

9 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It is?

If @jwilsonsays it is, there’s a pretty solid chance it is.

[Burghblizz]

16 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It is?

I wouldn’t feel great in the WV border counties, but rest of the area still has a shot. Obviously even better North and West of the city. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

50 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Those areas aren’t staying in the waves of precip as long due to the slightly more progressive nature. So it was more timing as opposed to system strength.

GFS has a chance to be the king here. I feel like others are trending to it more than it’s trending to others. But you still have to be concerned about a tick the wrong way. 

This is what I thought too, yes the wave is slightly weaker more strung out, but the whole thing is more progressive too, so those areas that were getting hit by both waves had higher totals now there is a larger swath of decent snow. In any event if we have to sacrifice someone else's snow to have an interesting event here I'll throw that baby into the volcano everytime, we have like 8 - 9 months out of the year for plain rain. Give me something wintry over plain rain any day in mid winter.

[KPITSnow]

8 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

This is what I thought too, yes the wave is slightly weaker more strung out, but the whole thing is more progressive too, so those areas that were getting hit by both waves had higher totals now there is a larger swath of decent snow. In any event if we have to sacrifice someone else's snow to have an interesting event here I'll throw that baby into the volcano everytime, we have like 8 - 9 months out of the year for plain rain. Give me something wintry over plain rain any day in mid winter.

Not to mention those areas we are sacrificing already had a 12-18 inch storm this year.

[TimB]

12z HRRR was at 33 at daybreak Thursday. 18z HRRR is at 36 at the same time and stays above freezing through the end of its run. Hours and hours of 33 degree rain.

[KPITSnow]

17 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

12z HRRR was at 33 at daybreak Thursday. 18z HRRR is at 36 at the same time and stays above freezing through the end of its run. Hours and hours of 33 degree rain.

NAM looks like it may be warmer than 12z as well.

 

edit: looks pretty north in general.

[TimB]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

NAM looks like it may be warmer than 12z as well.

Looks a lot like the HRRR through 45.

[KPITSnow]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Looks a lot like the HRRR through 45.

That’s absurd. The low is literally 100’s of miles north as opposed to 12z.

[dj3]

I would think the GFS starts to tick back towards other consensus at this point but who knows. Nam looks significantly north at hour 48 compared to 12z.

[KPITSnow]

Just now, dj3 said:

I would think the GFS starts to tick back towards other consensus at this point but who knows. Nam looks significantly north at hour 48 compared to 12z.

At this range a change that big is striking. Just hilarious that we almost never get a trend in our direction as we approach a storm.

[dj3]

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

That’s absurd. The low is literally 100’s of miles north as opposed to 12z.

I think there was a run last week where the NAM went from a bomb to almost a complete whiff for the Boston blizzard. And it was not very far out, within 60 hours I believe. 

[TimB]

A boring rainstorm. It’s almost like they set these models up in such a way that they suck us in for a storm we had no business tracking, only to pull the rug out.