Burghblizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Might not translate to snow output, but the high presses east a little quicker in NAM. Good trend. Verbatim still probably a helluva sleet storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This is one case where the maps that include sleet accumulation are probably more realistic, rather than a sudden decrease from 12" of snow to 0" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That NAM run is a precip bomb with a ton of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Saw the WSW was hoisted and Ron Smiley was saying he was expecting more snow than what was forecasted. He's usually rather conservative, but pretty good about totals, so that's interesting. Figured that meant the models went in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Everything so far is starting to suggest that we might be below freezing most of the day Thursday, but temps aloft don’t support snow during that timeframe. This can’t be good, unless you really want the crippling ice storm. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The NAM gives us almost two inches of frozen precip whether that be zr, sleet, or snow. ever wanted to see half a foot of sleet? This might be your chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Probably too late in the game to get to Pittsburgh, but it is now starting to show heavy snow in parts of the NWS office's CWA. Even the much warmer NAM now brings 8-12"+ to Mercer, Venango, and Forest Counties. Far cry from the 3-6" in the WSW. Might be able to get those higher totals to come down another row of counties further south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Everything so far is starting to suggest that we will be below freezing most of the day Thursday, but temps aloft don’t support snow during that timeframe. This can’t be good. Pray for sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Pray for sleet That’s the bottom line. The goalposts are narrowing. The most plausible options are a sleet bomb or an ice storm or some combination of the two, with little rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I don't really understand why the forecast still has mid and upper 30s on Thursday? Even the warmer NAM has temps below freezing by daybreak, and drops it into the upper 20s during the afternoon Thursday. GFS shows mid 20s Thursday afternoon. If temps are 25-28F, that also calls into question the theory that the ice won't accumulate much at 31F, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Saw the WSW was hoisted and Ron Smiley was saying he was expecting more snow than what was forecasted. He's usually rather conservative, but pretty good about totals, so that's interesting. Figured that meant the models went in our favor. They were taking victory laps left and right in the MLK storm, even though the total fell within every outlets range. If they want to score a win though, this might be the storm to do it. Somewhere from PGH to the NW figures to really cash in. But it would be a bold call at this point to slide 6”+ type totals into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: They were taking victory laps left and right in the MLK storm, even though the total fell within every outlets range. If they want to score a win though, this might be the storm to do it. Somewhere from PGH to the NW figures to really cash in. But it would be a bold call at this point to slide 6”+ type totals into the city. Looking at the NAM it wouldn’t take much. I do remember a couple of systems where the front and cold air crashed through much faster than forecasted and we got blasted with more snow than expected. The NAM is a really ugly look though and hopefully is overdoing freezing rain and is more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't really understand why the forecast still has mid and upper 30s on Thursday? Even the warmer NAM has temps below freezing by daybreak, and drops it into the upper 20s during the afternoon Thursday. GFS shows mid 20s Thursday afternoon. If temps are 25-28F, that also calls into question the theory that the ice won't accumulate much at 31F, no? All of the globals except the GFS have us near 40 at daybreak, so we’ll have to see what the 12z runs of those do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It’s been a while since we’ve had a big sleet storm. We usually get sleet more than the freezing rain which I will take. Hard to shovel though. Anyway I’ll take sleet over zrain and cold rain. Maybe some big flakes of snow mixing in with the sleet is always fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 29 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Oh yeah, it is. Big time. Mix line down near Greene/Washington County border - and this is only early afternoon Thursday! Yes, big jump towards the GFS, gets the cold in much faster ahead of that second wave. Now watch the GFS go North at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yes, big jump towards the GFS, gets the cold in much faster ahead of that second wave. Now watch the GFS go North at 12z. Or somehow miss us to the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I saw this in the Ohio thread from a TV meteorologist in Cleveland. Brings a foot and a half of snow all the way to the Ohio River in eastern Ohio... what model is showing that? I thought this might raise spirits here though. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 RGEM (which hasn’t been kind to us with this storm) still looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: I saw this in the Ohio thread from a TV meteorologist in Cleveland. Brings a foot and a half of snow all the way to the Ohio River in eastern Ohio... what model is showing that? I thought this might raise spirits here though. Lol. Damn…and his foot line is IMBY. I wouldnt look too much into it even if he is a good met. Our locals lose attention to detail quickly when it’s out of the viewing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I saw this in the Ohio thread from a TV meteorologist in Cleveland. Brings a foot and a half of snow all the way to the Ohio River in eastern Ohio... what model is showing that? I thought this might raise spirits here though. Lol. I bet his in house model counts sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: I bet his in house model counts sleet Maybe - but I would think they would manually adjust that for a public forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: RGEM (which hasn’t been kind to us with this storm) still looks warm. I’m pretty sure the RGEM has been terrible all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: I’m pretty sure the RGEM has been terrible all winter. It consistently had some of the highest totals on the MLK storm (can we call it the KPITSnow 1/19/19 redux?) if that says anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It looks like the NWS updated the expected snowfall map. Looks like totals have been bumped up a bit. I think it looks pretty reasonable at the moment. The 2.3 inch amount is for downtown Pittsburgh. The airport would be closer to the 3" line - probably checking in about 2.8 or 2.9 taking this forecast literally. I'd say it looks good, but I might place the initial over/under value for the airport closer to 4". The NWS is also forecasting the potential for 0.2-0.3" of ice through much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: It looks like the NWS updated the expected snowfall map. Looks like totals have been bumped up a bit. I think it looks pretty reasonable at the moment. The 2.3 inch amount is for downtown Pittsburgh. The airport would be closer to the 3" line - probably checking in about 2.8 or 2.9 taking this forecast literally. I'd say it looks good, but I might place the initial over/under value for the airport closer to 4". The NWS is also forecasting the potential for 0.2-0.3" of ice through much of the area. Really I think with the current trends, we could see all zones get bumped up one tier. Might be more in line with a blend of the NAM/GFS at this point. Would also coordinate better with the snowfall map from NWS CLE which has 6-8 in the southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: It looks like the NWS updated the expected snowfall map. Looks like totals have been bumped up a bit. I think it looks pretty reasonable at the moment. The 2.3 inch amount is for downtown Pittsburgh. The airport would be closer to the 3" line - probably checking in about 2.8 or 2.9 taking this forecast literally. I'd say it looks good, but I might place the initial over/under value for the airport closer to 4". The NWS is also forecasting the potential for 0.2-0.3" of ice through much of the area. That’s significantly less bullish than they were on the ice potential earlier. The previous package had over a quarter inch for much of the metro. They’ve also updated the zones to include a lot more mix during the day Thursday (with sleet more prevalent than zr). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: It looks like the NWS updated the expected snowfall map. Looks like totals have been bumped up a bit. I think it looks pretty reasonable at the moment. The 2.3 inch amount is for downtown Pittsburgh. The airport would be closer to the 3" line - probably checking in about 2.8 or 2.9 taking this forecast literally. I'd say it looks good, but I might place the initial over/under value for the airport closer to 4". The NWS is also forecasting the potential for 0.2-0.3" of ice through much of the area. There is an NAM sleet map that shows a foot of sleet. I wouldn’t count on that verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The track, strength, and orientation of the 850 low will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That’s significantly less bullish than they were on the ice potential earlier. The previous package had over a quarter inch for much of the metro. Actually they just changed it. I was wrong. Now they show generally less than a tenth of inch of icing. I had to refresh my browser for the new map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: There is an NAM sleet map that shows a foot of sleet. I wouldn’t count on that verifying. Actually thats 3 inches of sleet. Ratios of sleet are about 3 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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