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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It is nice to get snow when it's 15 degrees out.  Pretty rare here to get it that cold and snowing.

I had my doubts on your lake effect mood flakes the other day with the westerly flow but it seems that panned out for us.

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2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like no advisory was the right call. Just a hair under 2” imby, call it 1.9”. Happy to finally see some snow.

Same, just shy of 2", we will probably pick up another tenth or so with the light flurries / snow showers to make it to an even 2"  Overall this was a well forecast (local and NWS) and most models had us in the 2-3 inch range 24 hours out, no surprises good or bad.

Will be nice to have a day the looks and feels like winter today, to bad we don't have a more NW flow, with the warm lakes could probably have had a couple more widespread decent bands make it down this way.

Afterwards looks like a bit of a roller-coaster ride in terms of temperatures, with plenty of tracking. It will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves and if a bigger storm materializes.

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Nothing hugely exciting with this event, but when it's early in the game and you just need points, you take the field goal.

The week ahead looks relatively quiet, I think.  We're still transitioning from the older pattern to a new regime that favors east coast troughing.  Absent something else that pops up, of course, perhaps a clipper or surprise s/w.

The week after is when things start to get interesting.  The CMC and GFS both have "big dog" signals on them in the longer range.  Their evolution isn't the same, but they depict fairly typical major storm scenarios.  Granted, for now you take it with a grain of salt, but they've been hinting at this for days now.  Stand-out events like that can be sniffed out early, albeit rare.  Last one was 2016.

A period to watch, for sure.  Hopefully we can score something with the unexpected STJ involvement.  We may also have to score this month if the pattern reverses and spring starts in February.

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30 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Nice little burst of moderate/heavy snow here this evening. Everything is covered again. Maybe another inch or more honestly. Love bonus snow.

Wow! Just went to Squirrel Hill for dinner at 6:00 and got home here at 8:00 to terrible roads. Measured 2 fresh inches on my driveway. 4.5 in the yard. That streamer must have been sitting over the North Hills while I was gone. Clearing skies now. Mcknight Road was a mess heading out to 579. Surprise!

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18 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Something big is gonna pop now whether we get in on the good stuff or not is a whole different story. Atleast we are gonna have sustained cold and some positive teleconnections for a change. 

I agree, if the pattern lasts 2-3 weeks seems reasonable there would probably be at least 1-2 big storms. Probably as the pattern evolves our chances improve, right now the trough axis is pretty far east, even far enough folks on the coast are talking about. Of course a perfect phase or timed shortwave can still do the job and that's the low odds chance we have in the near term.

I'd gladly take a couple back to back clippers / miller b setups if we are going to generally have sustained cold in the heart of January so at least the cold isn't a "wasted". Those types of storms are probably better odds too.

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