Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 gfs is further south and the heights are lower so we mix more as a result fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: The overall look the first 2 weeks of Feb has degraded some vs the broad cold trough we saw a few days ago on the models. This says it all, but that’s not a surprise either. It’s difficult for us to get two consecutive months with below normal temperatures any time of year these days, but nearly impossible for that to happen in winter. The storm this week was never really ours and it’s still early, but we only have to think back to the middle of February 2021 to remember missing out on a storm and then later realizing it was our last chance for any appreciable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: gfs is further south and the heights are lower so we mix more as a result fwiw I agree with what you said before....just rain. I do not have any desire to see an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 some sad totals on this list g 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: some sad totals on this list g The lack of LES is pretty striking in places like Cleveland, Erie, even Buffalo though I think they have done better, but especially Syracuse. I know a lot of Erie and Cleveland's totals are from LES usually but this year the MLK storm gave them a bunch, and I'd imagine that Youngstown's deficit is also from a lack of LES. Also its weird to me that Akron has a much lower average than Cleveland and Youngstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The lack of LES is pretty striking in places like Cleveland, Erie, even Buffalo though I think they have done better, but especially Syracuse. I know a lot of Erie and Cleveland's totals are from LES usually but this year the MLK storm gave them a bunch, and I'd imagine that Youngstown's deficit is also from a lack of LES. Also its weird to me that Akron has a much lower average than Cleveland and Youngstown. It has been painful here. Third consecutive crap winter in a row. It's going to take a HUGE comeback for us to get anywhere near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: I agree with what you said before....just rain. I do not have any desire to see an ice storm If there’s not any snow left on the ground by Thursday and this storm isn’t going to be snow, give me rain. If there’s any snowpack left, give me the ice to put a crust on whatever snow remains and give it some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: If there’s not any snow left on the ground by Thursday and this storm isn’t going to be snow, give me rain. If there’s any snowpack left, give me the ice to put a crust on whatever snow remains and give it some staying power. Ehhhhhhh I do NOT want what the Euro depicts of like 1.5 inches of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Ehhhhhhh I do NOT want what the Euro depicts of like 1.5 inches of it. When was the last time we got 1.5 inches of ice, or even 0.5 for that matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, TimB84 said: When was the last time we got 1.5 inches of ice, or even 0.5 for that matter? Yeah, it never happens, but we certainly are capable of .5 an inch and I do not want to see that at all. A sleet storm would be ok though as long as it isn't a storm we are predicted to get a foot and sleet ruins it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It has been painful here. Third consecutive crap winter in a row. It's going to take a HUGE comeback for us to get anywhere near normal. I was giving Ray a hard time on the NE thread because he was complaining about "only" getting a foot.....I was like man, I've had IMBY one foot plus storm in the last 12 years and only two this century. I'm pretty sure they've had like 15+. I do understand that missing 30 inches by 50 miles is painful, but we've done that here so many times. Not the 30 inches but even our one really good storm last year in December 75-100 miles NE got 30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Yeah, it never happens, but we certainly are capable of .5 an inch and I do not want to see that at all. A sleet storm would be ok though as long as it isn't a storm we are predicted to get a foot and sleet ruins it. For a real ice storm you need temps in the upper 20s or lower and light to moderate precipitation. Heavy rain and 31 degrees 95% is just runoff yet models show as accumulated ice. If there’s snow on the ground to soak it up and refereeze that can make an interesting setup but it’s my least favorite wintry precip. I’d take a heavy sleet storm any day. When was our last real ice storm? what ever happens it looks like North and West of the city is the place to be for better odds again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not sure what conclusions we can draw from looking at the NAM at the end of its range, but at 12z Thursday the line between rain and mix is way out in NW OH and the line between mix and snow runs from Detroit to South Bend. Way NW of other models. I guess the conclusion we can draw is that this thing is DOA, but we knew that already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 24 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Not sure what conclusions we can draw from looking at the NAM at the end of its range, but at 12z Thursday the line between rain and mix is way out in NW OH and the line between mix and snow runs from Detroit to South Bend. Way NW of other models. I guess the conclusion we can draw is that this thing is DOA, but we knew that already. and I'm totally OK with ZERO mixed precip. I'm a firefighter and work Thursday. That is a recipe for disaster for drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: and I'm totally OK with ZERO mixed precip. I'm a firefighter and work Thursday. That is a recipe for disaster for drivers. But if this thing is going to find a way to give us a decent snow (which I’m seriously doubting), you’d take a period of ice between the rain and the snow if that’s what had to happen to get us to snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 yes and this is very close for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 and euro sucks oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 yes and this is very close for us.And I bet it doesn't budge. LolSent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: And I bet it doesn't budge. Lol Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk 6z was WAY south and gets us a decent snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: 6z was WAY south and gets us a decent snow event Let’s hope it’s a trend. This model is currently on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, north pgh said: Let’s hope it’s a trend. This model is currently on its own. UK has a good hit too. There is a bunch of ice on that GFS. Would be high impact taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: UK has a good hit too. There is a bunch of ice on that GFS. Would be high impact taken literally. Canadian has more mix too. Like everyone else I’d take 2 inches of sleet over any amount of freezing rain. Ideally I’d take a little rain then sleet then snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: UK has a good hit too. There is a bunch of ice on that GFS. Would be high impact taken literally. Yes lots of sleet and ice. I'd take it, and I'd hedge if that scenario played out it's more sleet than ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 hours ago, TimB84 said: Not sure what conclusions we can draw from looking at the NAM at the end of its range, but at 12z Thursday the line between rain and mix is way out in NW OH and the line between mix and snow runs from Detroit to South Bend. Way NW of other models. I guess the conclusion we can draw is that this thing is DOA, but we knew that already. Long range NAM isn't great though, I thought? Inside 48 hours is when it starts being really useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 hours ago, Rd9108 said: and euro sucks oh well It's sucked all season, lol. GFS is king now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Long range NAM isn't great though, I thought? Inside 48 hours is when it starts being really useful. Well there’s that, but then there was the event a couple weeks ago where it predicted the mixed precip debacle that would eventually cut our totals. Of course at this range, I believe it depicted significant icing, which didn’t happen in any form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Of course the last panel of the 6z NAM has us at 46 and partly sunny at 18z Thursday. No joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 46 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Of course the last panel of the 6z NAM has us at 46 and partly sunny at 18z Thursday. No joke. This setup plays into the NAMs bias though. It really amplifies the second wave and has less press from tpv / high pressure. Basically exact opposite of what the GFS was doing, less consolidated energy along the front and more cold push. Not saying NAM idea is wrong perse but even Euro moved a bit SE at 6z albeit not to the degree of the GFS. As always we need to get a couple runs in a row agreeing with the GFS otherwise maybe just noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: This setup plays into the NAMs bias though. It really amplifies the second wave and has less press from tpv / high pressure. Basically exact opposite of what the GFS was doing, less consolidated energy along the front and more cold push. Not saying NAM idea is wrong perse but even Euro moved a bit SE at 6z albeit not to the degree of the GFS. As always we need to get a couple runs in a row agreeing with the GFS otherwise maybe just noise. Knew I could count on your expert analysis to fill in my knowledge gaps regarding modeling bias. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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