Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Anyone still talking about this? Looking at the first to weeks of February of the GFS it's gonna be bitter cold.

That’s exactly it. We’ll see how the month pans out, but as badly as the CPC was wrong last February with almost the exact same map, it’s hard to put much stock into that product.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Moving close to 4” since last night-nothing to write home about but has an excellent setting for Friday night indoor fire….

[Ahoff]

Officially 1.1" at KPIT.

We'll get so close to 20" for the month.

[TimB]

53 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Anyone still talking about this? Looking at the first to weeks of February of the GFS it's gonna be bitter cold.

Further, today’s week 3-4 outlook (2/12-25) has us in the “equal chances” zone, closer to the above normal than to the below. 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have us firmly in the below normal, so would expect when the updated Feb map comes out on Monday, it won’t look like the one last week.

[Rd9108]

NYC is about to feel our pain once again as it looks like this is ticking east.

 

Also read in awe this forecast for Boston

 

WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR
 EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED
 3 FT IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH BLIZZARD
 CONDITIONS.
* SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING
 THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN
 MA AND RI.
* IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SNOWFALL, STRONG WINDS UP TO
 HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY
 COLD WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
  FLOODING.   

DETAILS...

HEAVY SNOWFALL/EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES...

MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD TO
IMPACT EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 MB
PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TO THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. FOR REFERENCE, A BOMB CYCLONE'S
CRITERIA IS A DROP OF 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WITHIN 24
HOURS OF THE STORM, WE ARE NOW IN THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM
GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING AN EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVENT.

WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES   
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.   
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST   
BAND, HOWEVER. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50 UNITS 

OF OMEGA COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. GIVEN   
THAT A DOUBLE BARREL LOW COULD DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYE-
LIKE FEATURE AT SOME POINT, WHEREVER THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETS UP
COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR 5 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY WHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE   
SYSTEM. IF A DEFORMATION BAND CAN PERSIST WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) COULD BE AS   
HIGH AS 20-25 TO 1. THEREFORE, WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 24 TO 30 INCHES STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND COULD SET UP FURTHER WEST,
OR THERE MAY BE TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN
BETWEEN. EITHER WAY, WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI.

STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...  

WITH 925MB WINDS AT 65-70 KTS OR 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE   
NORMAL ACCORDING TO GEFS AND NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE AND
COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT MIXING, THERE WILL BE HURRICANE FORCE WIND   
GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50-60 MPH GUSTS FURTHER
INLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 4 FT OR HIGHER. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RATHER WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI,
INCLUDING THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE I-95 OR EVEN THE I-495 
CORRIDOR ENDS UP WITH A SECONDARY LOCAL SNOWFALL MAXIMA. THE SILVER
LINING IS THAT BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH DRY POWDERY FLUFF, THERE
IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SNOW LOADING ISSUES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DUE TO THE COASTAL FRONT.

POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS,
WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW AND
CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER SNOW LOADING. WITH 70 MPH WINDS, POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY SNOW
OVERSPREADS AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY SURE
UNTIL THE MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP AS THE STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW
MORNING. WHILE WE DO THINK THAT PLYMOUTH COUNTY IS STILL GOING TO
END UP WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THIS STORM, HOWEVER, THE 
SLRS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE'S LESS THAN IDEAL
COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST OMEGA RESULTING IN RIMING AND THE FACT
THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS COULD BREAK UP DENDRITES.

•  

[Ahoff]

We are just north of the heavy rain here.  We were in heavy rain before, so some progress, though means better chances for ice.

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

We are just north of the heavy rain hear.  We were in heavy rain before, so some progress, though means better chances for ice.

Maybe some snow on the backside??

[SteelCity87]

Any good cams in Boston to view this one? 

[Ahoff]

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Maybe some snow on the backside??

I hope for a few inches, especially if brutal cold funnels in after the storm.

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

I hope for a few inches, especially if brutal cold funnels in after the storm.

GEFS is basically a toss up of what could happen. 

 

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

GEFS is basically a toss up of what could happen. 

 

There's some really good ones there.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

NYC is about to feel our pain once again as it looks like this is ticking east.

 

Also read in awe this forecast for Boston

 

WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR
 EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED
 3 FT IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH BLIZZARD
 CONDITIONS.
* SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING
 THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN
 MA AND RI.
* IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SNOWFALL, STRONG WINDS UP TO
 HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY
 COLD WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
  FLOODING.   

DETAILS...

HEAVY SNOWFALL/EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES...

MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD TO
IMPACT EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 MB
PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TO THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. FOR REFERENCE, A BOMB CYCLONE'S
CRITERIA IS A DROP OF 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WITHIN 24
HOURS OF THE STORM, WE ARE NOW IN THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM
GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING AN EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVENT.

WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES   
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.   
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST   
BAND, HOWEVER. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50 UNITS 

OF OMEGA COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. GIVEN   
THAT A DOUBLE BARREL LOW COULD DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYE-
LIKE FEATURE AT SOME POINT, WHEREVER THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETS UP
COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR 5 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY WHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE   
SYSTEM. IF A DEFORMATION BAND CAN PERSIST WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) COULD BE AS   
HIGH AS 20-25 TO 1. THEREFORE, WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 24 TO 30 INCHES STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND COULD SET UP FURTHER WEST,
OR THERE MAY BE TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN
BETWEEN. EITHER WAY, WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI.

STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...  

WITH 925MB WINDS AT 65-70 KTS OR 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE   
NORMAL ACCORDING TO GEFS AND NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE AND
COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT MIXING, THERE WILL BE HURRICANE FORCE WIND   
GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50-60 MPH GUSTS FURTHER
INLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 4 FT OR HIGHER. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RATHER WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI,
INCLUDING THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE I-95 OR EVEN THE I-495 
CORRIDOR ENDS UP WITH A SECONDARY LOCAL SNOWFALL MAXIMA. THE SILVER
LINING IS THAT BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH DRY POWDERY FLUFF, THERE
IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SNOW LOADING ISSUES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DUE TO THE COASTAL FRONT.

POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS,
WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW AND
CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER SNOW LOADING. WITH 70 MPH WINDS, POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY SNOW
OVERSPREADS AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY SURE
UNTIL THE MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP AS THE STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW
MORNING. WHILE WE DO THINK THAT PLYMOUTH COUNTY IS STILL GOING TO
END UP WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THIS STORM, HOWEVER, THE 
SLRS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE'S LESS THAN IDEAL
COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST OMEGA RESULTING IN RIMING AND THE FACT
THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS COULD BREAK UP DENDRITES.

•  

That's an incredible discussion... Can't even imagine what those folks are about to experience.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

We are just north of the heavy rain here.  We were in heavy rain before, so some progress, though means better chances for ice.

Seems like some runs are showing the storm come out in pieces which increased our odds of seeing winter weather of some sort vs rain with a big consolidated low. Also keep an eye on that piece of energy that goes by to the North. I'd say we want that stronger and further south just ahead of the storm, that should lower heights in the east so we get the front through before all the pieces of energy ride up.

[KPITSnow]

I do not envy any of the forecasters in NYC or Philly. A 25-50 mile shift can mean the difference between a run of the mill 6-8 inch storm and a historic 18+ inch storm.

[KPITSnow]

20 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That's an incredible discussion... Can't even imagine what those folks are about to experience.

They probably can though...they've had SEVEN 20+ storms since 2000, and usually when they get those storms it isn't a snowglobe...its a full fledged blizzard.

[TimB]

On 1/19/2022 at 8:05 PM, TimB84 said:

For example, a couple randomly selected years with a good snowstorm in January:

January 19-20, 2001: 6.8” of snow fell, snow depth remained 4”+ through 1/29.

January 7, 1996: 9.2” of snow fell, snow depth remained 6”+ through 1/17 (albeit with a couple smaller reinforcing events in between).

We just didn’t torch right after these events in years past.

And here we are, only down to 41 with snow continuing to melt at 8pm on a day that was only supposed to get to 40.

All that worrying and here we are on day 12 of at least 4” snowpack at PIT and should easily add 3 more days to that, which would tie last year for 11th place for consecutive days with at least 4” of snow on the ground. Record is 54 in 1978, so basically a Joe DiMaggio’s hitting streak kind of record.

Simply put, this stretch has rivaled the good stretches from last winter in my opinion.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

All that worrying and here we are on day 12 of at least 4” snowpack at PIT and should easily add 3 more days to that, which would tie last year for 11th place for consecutive days with at least 4” of snow on the ground. Record is 54 in 1978, so basically a Joe DiMaggio’s hitting streak kind of record.

Simply put, this stretch has rivaled the good stretches from last winter in my opinion.

Next week not looking too bad on the 00z GFS. Quite a bit of precipitation spread out over a rather long duration, but depicts some showers (maybe a bit of freezing rain at first) evolving to a steady rain, then changing to a period of freezing rain and sleet, and then snow, possibly a few inches. The snowfall maps on Pivotal were showing upwards of 5-7" but appear to be inflated due to the mixed precipitation. Kind of an unsual setup but looks believable in this case given the very strong arctic high pushing south from Canada.

[north pgh]

3 degrees currently at my house.

[KPITSnow]

If you guys think i’m bad there are dudes in the NE threads complainig about 10-15 inches sorry well as many in NYC complaining about 10+.
 

dony forget too those areas pretty consistently see huge storms…16 inches last year was NYC’s 17th biggest total ever and would rank 6th here.

[Rd9108]

44 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

If you guys think i’m bad there are dudes in the NE threads complainig about 10-15 inches sorry well as many in NYC complaining about 10+.
 

dony forget too those areas pretty consistently see huge storms…16 inches last year was NYC’s 17th biggest total ever and would rank 6th here.

They are spoiled because they live on the coast. The sooner you realize that we are 400 miles away from the ocean and struggle to get 12+ the happier you will be. We get big storms but just not as often as other places and sometimes other places need to get 3 or 4 ft for us to get 2ft. It's just what it is. 

[TimB]

Seems there’s a chance someone’s getting a crippling ice storm late in the week. CMC suggests it could be us, GFS keeps it N/W of us.

[Burghblizz]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

If you guys think i’m bad there are dudes in the NE threads complainig about 10-15 inches sorry well as many in NYC complaining about 10+.
 

dony forget too those areas pretty consistently see huge storms…16 inches last year was NYC’s 17th biggest total ever and would rank 6th here.

You’d be complaining about the going almost a year between inches (like Boston almost did) or 1/2” winters (like Philly just had.

HALF of those NYC storms happened in the last 20 years. I’m not sure if it’s a remarkable stretch of luck, or a product of climate change. Probably a little of both. 

Its also all relative. I complained a little about a foot in ‘96, knowing how close it was to being much bigger.

Our NWS list is a little understated for big storms, if you draw the line at 16”. Most areas also had 16”+ in ‘03 and ‘94 as well. And 30ish” in ‘78 that was really back to back over 4 days. 

We fixed the 8-12” drought with some nice ones lately. Been 12 years for 16+. I think it’s time, but enjoy what you got until then

[TimB]

Liking the EC depiction of the late week event. 9” at 10:1 could be a foot at those temps.

[Rd9108]

[Burghblizz]

Never like being on the southern end of the good stuff 

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Never like being on the southern end of the good stuff 

good thing we are like 5 days out.

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Never like being on the southern end of the good stuff 

It’s less than ideal but things seem to be trending in the right direction, so there’s that. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Never like being on the southern end of the good stuff 

Gotta sniff the rain if you want the big totals.. at least that's how the saying goes... I think?  lol.

I don't have a good feeling on how far South the boundary makes it, but it seems the trend has been lower heights in the east and the winter thus far has featured faster progressive storms so that bodes well vs an amped up Midwest cutter from a few days ago. If that continues it's good to see we have wiggle room for more SE adjustments. Seems GFS is furthest NW with the boundary, CMC is in-between and Euro further SE.

[Rd9108]

You see that 1043 HP that should help push the boundary down 

[Rd9108]

Some thoughts from a PGH met on another forum 

 

I would be very cautious with the current GFS solution for a couple reasons:

 

1) It is more than a day faster with this follow up wave compared to all other guidance, which fits into its bias of being way too progressive with disturbances.

 

2) It does not do a good job at all with handling the impact of low-level cold.