jwilson Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 8:37 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: THIS. I was going to post, good news is there a several s/w so plenty of chances for something to pop, bad news, there are several s/w so models will have a hard time figuring out which ones to focus on and they will in some cases interfere with each other. I'd fully expect in this setup something might just blow up in the short / medium term. If a storm is going to miss us, we probably want it to stay weak and progressive and get the hell out of the way so as to not interfere with the next one with spacing issues etc. Expand Agreed. I think this current week is too noisy for any one storm to really explode. Everything else is running interference and taking away some of the potential energy. Not long after my other post, the Euro - at 12Z - went towards the GFS solution. There's definitely still time to resolve it, either way, but I have low confidence in something for this week. The clipper overnight Monday into Tuesday is perhaps our best next chance for snow. Pretty standard 2-4" deal. There's a number of systems getting blown up in the long-term, but none of that is reliable right now. Unless a window clears again where there's a single piece or two of energy that can time together and phase. The GFS keeps hinting at it in the long-term, again at 18Z around hr. 240, but it's hard to take those threats seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Thar should work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 11:26 PM, dj3 said: Thar should work. Just your typical cat 3 Hurricane. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 12:28 AM, MikeB_01 said: Just your typical cat 3 Hurricane. . Expand I think I could stop tracking for a decade and be alright. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 fringed toss!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 12:28 AM, MikeB_01 said: Just your typical cat 3 Hurricane. . Expand I mean...please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 0z HRRR trended North with the wave Thursday. something to watch we could get a sneaky 2 or 3 inches if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just need a little NW shift on the GFS D11 storm and we’re good. Get something like that and I don’t care if it changes the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 1:32 AM, TimB84 said: Just need a little NW shift on the GFS D11 storm and we’re good. Get something like that and I don’t care if it changes the pattern. Expand That storm would change the map, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 11:26 PM, dj3 said: Thar should work. Expand Wow... That's crazy even for fantasy land, almost obscene to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:14 AM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Wow... That's crazy even for fantasy land, almost obscene to look at. Expand I’m not even sure I understand how that would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:27 AM, Ahoff said: I’m not even sure I understand how that would happen. Expand Simple. A low forms in the Gulf, runs up the coast, drops 50mb in 24 hours, then retrogrades westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:35 AM, TimB84 said: Simple. A low forms in the Gulf, runs up the coast, drops 50mb in 24 hours, then retrogrades westward. Expand Yeah, super simple and totally normal. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:27 AM, Ahoff said: I’m not even sure I understand how that would happen. Expand Looks like it's a near perfect phase of 2 potent northern and southern stream short waves by 240, then more energy dumps into the trough and retrogrades the low, similar to this last storm in that regard. By the end trough is very negative and at least 3 contour closed low at 500. Absolute beast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:44 AM, Ahoff said: Yeah, super simple and totally normal. Expand This storm is a lock. Only fly in the ointment is whether the NAM mixes sleet in when it gets into range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:48 AM, TimB84 said: This storm is a lock. Only fly in the ointment is whether the NAM mixes sleet in when it gets into range. Expand dry slot is my concern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:14 AM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Wow... That's crazy even for fantasy land, almost obscene to look at. Expand NSFW for sure. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Need the front today to hang up a little further NW if we want to see a little snow pack refreshing tonight. Looks like moisture wants to slide just to the SE of Pittsburgh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 12:12 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Need the front today to hang up a little further NW if we want to see a little snow pack refreshing tonight. Looks like moisture wants to slide just to the SE of Pittsburgh area. Expand Razor sharp. Some of us in the southern areas will definitely see something. Maybe a dusting? Areas to the north, looking like zip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Looks boring for a bit What is crazy is that it looks like Norfolk and the Delmarva is gonna get a crippling snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Looks like PIT is already at 40 and AGC is already at 42. Seems like high temperatures always overperform when we have a chance to melt snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 3:16 PM, TimB84 said: Looks like PIT is already at 40 and AGC is already at 42. Seems like high temperatures always overperform when we have a chance to melt snow. Expand I don't think all 9" will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 3:56 PM, Ahoff said: I don't think all 9" will be gone. Expand As long as it stays mostly overcast and there’s no rain we should be able to keep a good snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Up to 44.1 here with sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 5:16 PM, PghPirates27 said: Up to 44.1 here with sun. Expand That’s what I mean. Whenever we get a pattern that looks good for snow retention, it gets put in jeopardy by a day that was supposed to be overcast and struggle to reach 40 instead torching well into the mid-40s with lots of sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Exactly now I can see green in my yard lol. About to hit 45 and still sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Clouds seem to be thickening some here. Hopefully that stops the bleeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 45.3 ° at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 45.1 and still climbing! Where is this during the summer when I want it to hit over 90. Days like that the clouds roll in and it only gets to 83. I like the extremes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 3:22 AM, north pgh said: Expand I think Snow cover is overrated and I don’t worry much about it anymore. We should still have a few inches on the ground tonight and nice cold for the Weekend to set up our next storm early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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