Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[dj3]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Ok then dude. I'll make a bet with you. If KPIT goes over 8 inches I won't post on here the rest of the winter. If it goes under you do the same.

Don’t make that bet I like your posts and you’ll lose that lol 

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I'm hugging the short term model that gives us the most. Lol

 

Amen. HRRR has 9.6" and still snowing at the end of the 19Z run

[SteelCity87]

16 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

With this,anything less than 8 is a massive bust.

Nws has been calling for 6-12" this entire time. They took their expected snowfall from 11.5" to 8".  Still well within the range. My point and click still shows the possibility of 6-13" and says the precip will change to all snow by 8pm. 

[SteelCity87]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

Amen. HRRR has 9.6" and still snowing at the end of the 19Z run

Is that the one that's showing loads of mixing? 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

With this,anything less than 8 is a massive bust.

Plus it's going to be 42 and rain Wednesday and all melt away, just call the whole thing off now.  Bite the cyanide pill now and save yourselves!

 

 

 

Sorry, couldn't resist, I'm only kidding but hey if the wheels do come off at least we don't reset our 12in+ every 15 year statistic. (I know it doesn't work that way)

 

[donyewest]

Never got above freezing up here just north of Butler.  Snow started 15-20 mins ago, accumulating on roofs already because the ground is frozen.  Buddy in Volant texted me and told me snow started about 10 mins ago there.  He doubts the high totals but I see it still being pretty high, at least up here.  I think the deformation band will still get all of us a good amount and it's not due until the middle of the night.

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, SteelCity87 said:

Is that the one that's showing loads of mixing? 

yes

[Ahoff]

3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

It IS going to change over. Saying anything else is wishcasting.

Ok, then why not wait until it does to complain.  Sounds like you’re bittercasting.

[SteelCity87]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

yes

I think we'll be just fine 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

29 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Don't shoot the messenger.

I expect better from you. 

[Mailman]

Still snow here.

[meatwad]

At least i95 is not gonna get hardly any snow today.

[PghPirates27]

1 minute ago, meatwad said:

At least i95 is not gonna get hardly any snow today.

This. Lol 

[Ahoff]

The weather app on iPhone shows brief changeover at the airport at 8 and then back to all snow.  At my location in the south part of the City the app shows no changeover, we’ll see.  That’s not too bad if that’s the case.

 

Even if there is changeover, we can pretty much no it won’t be plain rain.  Not that ice is good but it should wash any snow away.

[Ahoff]

Also, not much wind here.  A light breeze occasionally but not much.

[MikeB_01]

Temp at my house down to 25.7°

[Gordo74]

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Ok, then why not wait until it does to complain.  Sounds like you’re bittercasting.

Amen to that.

Isn't this the same guy who said he was done with winter after the Nov snow because it was 1" less than forecast?

Come on, at this point, just enjoy the snow globe.

Down to 23.7 degrees here in Ross. Snowing steady, but not heavy.

[KPITSnow]

Just now, Gordo74 said:

Amen to that.

Isn't this the same guy who said he was done with winter after the Nov snow because it was 1" less than forecast? Come on, at this point, just enjoy the snow globe.

I never said that.

[Mailman]

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0080
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

   Areas affected...central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 162124Z - 170330Z

   SUMMARY...Mixed wintry precipitation has begun to transition to
   moderate snow across portions of eastern KY, southern OH and WV. An
   increase in heavy snow is expected late this afternoon and evening
   with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate and heavy snow should continue to become more
   common this afternoon and evening across portions of the central
   Appalachians and Ohio Valley ahead of a potent upper low moving out
   of the southeast. Strong diffluence aloft overspreading the ongoing
   precipitation has resulted in increasing coverage and intensity with
   several reports of moderate snow appearing in eastern KY over the
   last hour. As large-scale ascent and strong mid-level warm advection
   continue to increase through this afternoon, precipitation rates
   should follow suit, increasing after 22z. It still may take several
   hours for the entirety of the precip to change over to snow given
   warm air trapped on the windward side of the Appalachians. However,
   dynamic cooling from increased precipitation rates and the loss of
   diurnal heating should accelerate the change over after dark.  

   Hi-res guidance is in strong agreement that band of moderate to
   heavy snow will likely take shape within the axis of deformation
   across eastern KY, western WV and eastern OH over the next couple of
   hours. This band will likely support snow rates of 1+ inches per
   hour through late afternoon and into this evening as it migrates
   north eventually reaching eastern OH and western PA. The corridor
   along the OH/PA border appears most likely to see the heaviest
   snowfall rates given the favorable overlap with strong isentropic
   ascent at the nose of the warm conveyor and enhanced deformation to
   the northwest of the upper low. Snow rates may briefly approach 2+
   inches per hour within this corridor, especially on the windward
   side of any locally higher terrain.

   ..Lyons.. 01/16/2022

[Ahoff]

1 minute ago, Mailman said:

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0080
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

   Areas affected...central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 162124Z - 170330Z

   SUMMARY...Mixed wintry precipitation has begun to transition to
   moderate snow across portions of eastern KY, southern OH and WV. An
   increase in heavy snow is expected late this afternoon and evening
   with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate and heavy snow should continue to become more
   common this afternoon and evening across portions of the central
   Appalachians and Ohio Valley ahead of a potent upper low moving out
   of the southeast. Strong diffluence aloft overspreading the ongoing
   precipitation has resulted in increasing coverage and intensity with
   several reports of moderate snow appearing in eastern KY over the
   last hour. As large-scale ascent and strong mid-level warm advection
   continue to increase through this afternoon, precipitation rates
   should follow suit, increasing after 22z. It still may take several
   hours for the entirety of the precip to change over to snow given
   warm air trapped on the windward side of the Appalachians. However,
   dynamic cooling from increased precipitation rates and the loss of
   diurnal heating should accelerate the change over after dark.  

   Hi-res guidance is in strong agreement that band of moderate to
   heavy snow will likely take shape within the axis of deformation
   across eastern KY, western WV and eastern OH over the next couple of
   hours. This band will likely support snow rates of 1+ inches per
   hour through late afternoon and into this evening as it migrates
   north eventually reaching eastern OH and western PA. The corridor
   along the OH/PA border appears most likely to see the heaviest
   snowfall rates given the favorable overlap with strong isentropic
   ascent at the nose of the warm conveyor and enhanced deformation to
   the northwest of the upper low. Snow rates may briefly approach 2+
   inches per hour within this corridor, especially on the windward
   side of any locally higher terrain.

   ..Lyons.. 01/16/2022

Interesting...Heavy snow.

[meatwad]

2 minutes ago, Mailman said:

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0080
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

   Areas affected...central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 162124Z - 170330Z

   SUMMARY...Mixed wintry precipitation has begun to transition to
   moderate snow across portions of eastern KY, southern OH and WV. An
   increase in heavy snow is expected late this afternoon and evening
   with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate and heavy snow should continue to become more
   common this afternoon and evening across portions of the central
   Appalachians and Ohio Valley ahead of a potent upper low moving out
   of the southeast. Strong diffluence aloft overspreading the ongoing
   precipitation has resulted in increasing coverage and intensity with
   several reports of moderate snow appearing in eastern KY over the
   last hour. As large-scale ascent and strong mid-level warm advection
   continue to increase through this afternoon, precipitation rates
   should follow suit, increasing after 22z. It still may take several
   hours for the entirety of the precip to change over to snow given
   warm air trapped on the windward side of the Appalachians. However,
   dynamic cooling from increased precipitation rates and the loss of
   diurnal heating should accelerate the change over after dark.  

   Hi-res guidance is in strong agreement that band of moderate to
   heavy snow will likely take shape within the axis of deformation
   across eastern KY, western WV and eastern OH over the next couple of
   hours. This band will likely support snow rates of 1+ inches per
   hour through late afternoon and into this evening as it migrates
   north eventually reaching eastern OH and western PA. The corridor
   along the OH/PA border appears most likely to see the heaviest
   snowfall rates given the favorable overlap with strong isentropic
   ascent at the nose of the warm conveyor and enhanced deformation to
   the northwest of the upper low. Snow rates may briefly approach 2+
   inches per hour within this corridor, especially on the windward
   side of any locally higher terrain.

   ..Lyons.. 01/16/2022

Dyanamic cooling ?

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Interesting...Heavy snow.

I find it odd that the SPC would issue this but KPIT would drop totals.

[Rd9108]

Let's get the heavy rates for a bit that's literally all I care about. A high total would be awesome but I want some really heavy snow.

[Ahoff]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

I find it odd that the SPC would issue this but KPIT would drop totals.

Just enjoy and let it ride.

[PghPirates27]

Ripping snow here now.

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I find it odd that the SPC would issue this but KPIT would drop totals.

Maybe KPIT has the same storm anxiety that you do

[Ecanem]

Weather app reports wintery mix.  It’s definitely not a mix in the mountains 

[KPITSnow]

2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Maybe KPIT has the same storm anxiety that you do

They'd be the worst METS ever then.

[MikeB_01]

mping reports from VERY southern wash county are snow

[TimB]

I don’t think a statement like “anything less than 8 inches at PIT would be a bust” is at all unreasonable, given the forecast as recently as a few hours ago, but I’ll also say that I don’t think PIT falls short of 8 inches.