southpark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: The regular NAM was terrible. Hi-res NAM looked decent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: The regular NAM was terrible. Lol, it was, but I think I saw MAG say that when the 3KM gets in range he tosses the regular one. THe NAM has been an extreme outlier for awhile now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Lol, it was, but I think I saw MAG say that when the 3KM gets in range he tosses the regular one. THe NAM has been an extreme outlier for awhile now. We just need a small tick SE to really be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Does the colder than expected temperatures in the east and south help keep the storm colder overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: Does the colder than expected temperatures in the east and south help keep the storm colder overall? Probably not. How many times here have we been 5 degrees only to be 45 and rain a day later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Probably not. How many times here have we been 5 degrees only to be 45 and rain a day later? I did notice the NWS dropped my expected high temp for today by 5 degrees this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: For perspective, NWS gives us a 13% chance of 18”+ at PIT. I think I saw the Steelers have a 14% chance of winning. Kelce and Tyreek were both limping off the field last week, if the defense can push the screws a little, we should do a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: Butler certainly have a shot to pop a 15” total. Can't wait to shovel this heavy, wet snow. Good ol' heartattack snow. Fully expecting to lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I’m starting to worry that what looked like something special on the overnight model runs the morning of the event is now just going to be a garden variety WSW snowfall. Won’t complain about 8” or so, but we get that kind of event most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I’m starting to worry that what looked like something special on the overnight model runs the morning of the event is now just going to be a garden variety WSW snowfall. The only model that is truly awful is the NAM, though the euro is actually not great too. The 3km NAM gives a foot and so does just about everything else with the best snows only showing 25-50 miles west. We probably see 10-12 inches regardless with I think honestly a potential for 15-18 with a small shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I’m starting to worry that what looked like something special on the overnight model runs the morning of the event is now just going to be a garden variety WSW snowfall. Won’t complain about 8” or so, but we get that kind of event most years. We need that low to jump east and not just go right through west central PA. If that low can jump or track even a little further east than modeled then we will get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 And don’t forget….it’s gonna be cold the next couple weeks so the snow won’t be going anywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, north pgh said: And don’t forget….it’s gonna be cold the next couple weeks so the snow won’t be going anywhere. 40 and a chance of rain on Wednesday. A garden variety 6-8” event will be almost gone in areas that get any sunshine at all in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, north pgh said: And don’t forget….it’s gonna be could the next couple weeks so the snow won’t be going anywhere. Good point. I don’t see the 540 line getting above Pittsburgh in the entire gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 RGEM is still a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: 40 and a chance of rain on Wednesday. A garden variety 6-8” event will be almost gone in areas that get any sunshine at all in 3 days. Not in gfs. That’s snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: RGEM is still a huge hit. We are going to be just fine. I'm riding the 12"+ hope into the sunset 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: We are going to be just fine. I'm riding the 12"+ hope into the sunset What's more likely the steelers winning or us getting 18 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Please drop that 21" red dot right on my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, meatwad said: posted at the same time. good eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: RGEM filling in the dryslot early and wrapping that deform band around towards us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Notice on the ptype map, the main L transfers east and the secondary L moves further east in Central PA. This is out best case i think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Notice on the ptype map, the main L transfers east and the secondary L moves further east in Central PA. This is out best case i think yep and hopefully mother nature does what it wants and gives us a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: yep and hopefully mother nature does what it wants and gives us a surprise She's done it before. Also something to consider, and I do not know the answer -> How well do the models do with Low placement when directly traveling over the apps? Do orographic features cause the models to struggle with exact placement and transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: She's done it before. Also something to consider, and I do not know the answer -> How well do the models do with Low placement when directly traveling over the apps? Do orographic features cause the models to struggle with exact placement and transfer? Funny I was just thinking the same thing. The apps could cause the low to jump east and bullseye us but that's wayyyyyu above my knowledge and pay grade. I just drive a big red truck around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: yep and hopefully mother nature does what it wants and gives us a surprise I think things trend better for us. These model runs seem to want to bring it a little further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, southpark said: I think things trend better for us. These model runs seem to want to bring it a little further east. Yes. Even the HRRR has trended a little better since the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Yes. Even the HRRR has trended a little better since the 12z run Are you buying the mixing issues on the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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