Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That has been my inclination, but wanted to confirm that it isn’t just my own already well-documented pessimism. Let's see what the other models do including the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Let's see what the other models do including the GEFS Canadian still has it but losing it south. Almost on the same track as today's storm. I'm sure it will fluctuate over the next couple days but if the others move south then it doesn't fare well at all for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 06z GEFS is pretty weak, but its there. Defitely nothing like what the other models are currently showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, north pgh said: Canadian still has it but losing it south. Almost on the same track as today's storm. I'm sure it will fluctuate over the next couple days but if the others move south then it doesn't fare well at all for us. As Bernie Rayno says this could be the windshield wiper effect. I never bet against last minute NW shifts either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 yikes hopefully it's just the normal mid range model mayhem and the models start to bring it back tonight or tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Never good having the Euro as the most amped. I’d feel much better if the GFS was on board. It did well with the storm today for the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: yikes hopefully it's just the normal mid range model mayhem and the models start to bring it back tonight or tomorrow oooofff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 It’s still early in the week but I would like to see the GFS include a few hits in there for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Meanwhilenthe Mid Atlantic is getting crushed with up to 15 inches. We are so snow starved and I just know it's gonna be a late winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The models always seem to lose the storm around this time, and pick it back up. If it were inside two days it be more of a worry. Hopefully, just the normal shifts. It couldn't stay perfect for us for 5 consecutive days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: The models always seem to lose the storm around this time, and pick it back up. If it were inside two days it be more of a worry. Hopefully, just the normal shifts. It couldn't stay perfect for us for 5 consecutive days. Yes. Definitely not worried yet. Euro coming in now. Interesting to see if it shifts like the Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 200 mile shift to the southeast on the 12z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: 200 mile shift to the southeast on the 12z Euro still a lot of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: still a lot of time. Absolutely. The 12z has more of a zonal look rather than the more amplified look we were seeing over the last few runs. Plenty of time for it to shift back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Euro still has a nice hit for SW PA… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Euro still has a nice hit for SW PA… Would anybody actually complain about a 3-5 type event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Would anybody actually complain about a 3-5 type event? So an advisory level event? Not at all. SLRs would be high so wouldn’t even take a ton of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Would anybody actually complain about a 3-5 type event? I'd take that and run after the awful December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 There are locations in Northern Alabama that now have more snow on the season than PIT. (Not) fun fact! GFS still says "what?" as to the Friday event. The difference that I notice between it and the CMC, for example, appears to be that the GFS really pulls most of the energy into the preceding system. The one on Thursday that cuts through Southern Ontario. That system could end up as a helpful mechanism for the Friday storm by swirling in the 50/50 region and pumping the heights out ahead, thus altering the depth of the trough. Of course, there's no blocking otherwise with a +NAO and the overall flow supports fast-moving shortwaves. We do have a nice ridge out West. The models differ on the axis of that ridge with the GFS pulling it further to the East, which also contributes to the storm riding the trough ejecting. Essentially, I think the biggest differences are illustrated here (captions below images): 1: First, we see the Canadian separate these pieces of energy at 500H. It leaves behind a rather healthy chunk of energy and starts digging the trough earlier. 2: In contrast, the GFS at the same time wants to pull all the energy together and move it along the same boundary. 3: A couple steps ahead on the CMC and you can see how that separation has manifested. A lot of energy left behind starts digging deeper into the Smoky Mountains region. 4: Meanwhile, the GFS does the opposite and maintains a non split-flow with a solid line of energy, all moving at once and quickly. At the surface, we can see the differences even more clearly. 5: This is the Canadian at the surface, and you can see how that digging energy translates into early low formation over the southern states. It is reminiscent of what just happened today with a few more details altered. There's also a loose "banana" high helping develop the baroclinic zone and maybe helping to separate those pieces of energy from each other. 6: On the opposite end of the spectrum, the GFS is strung-out and less cohesive with the southern energy. It pops a low too late and farther off the coast, which essentially turns it into a fish storm, although there are some minor accumulations. Mostly in areas that already won today. These are the two scenarios we're faced with for now. The Euro is closer to the Canadian, as it has been, but it did move toward the GFS today. Personally, I'm 50/50 on how to feel about it. I want to say the GFS solution is more plausible in this particular winter, but the development we saw today would lend credence to the idea of a more robust system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Don't even care about snow anymore, giving up on it, I simply want it to be cold for a while and not rain. I have had moths and gnats around my porch lights multiple evenings in December. Got some bushes out front that started budding too. I'm darn near ready to put down grass seed and say screw it because La Nina during climate change means much more warmth than the "traditional" La Nina. And, really, winter is much more enjoyable when there is early snow, this late winter cold means delayed planting, sloppy snowstorms, and 30F->75~80F temp jumps instead of a pleasantly gradual spring. An El Nino wouldn't be much different, those typically mean more warmth than a La Nina, so it's hard to win like we did last year. Shower thought from this morning had me wondering if we had more hurricanes to knock down on the heat fueling the SE ridge, water and land, then maybe it wouldn't dominate the eastern half of the US during winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Chins up. Still a good signal from the national weather service. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 https://imgur.com/a/qSpOb90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 NAM looking better at 00z. At the end of it's run and all that but a solid step towards having a storm vs previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Unfortunately as usual this looks to get really going too late doesn't mean we can't get a decent event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Good and bad news tonight. The good: The GFS actually started picking up on something. The bad: The Euro is a little weaker and undergoes an east coast transfer sooner that the 12z run. Still early but the models seem to be honing in. Hoping to see the westward trek at some point. Time for sleep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Good and bad news tonight. The good: The GFS actually started picking up on something. The bad: The Euro is a little weaker and undergoes an east coast transfer sooner that the 12z run. Still early but the models seem to be honing in. Hoping to see the westward trek at some point. Time for sleep... The NAM has the northwest trend. Now we need the others to follow suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 NWS is carrying a forecast of 2.9” for Pittsburgh at the moment, with a 21% chance of 6+ and a 16% chance of nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: NWS is carrying a forecast of 2.9” for Pittsburgh at the moment, with a 21% chance of 6+ and a 16% chance of nothing. Good start. They are always more conservative, understandably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Also, very nice that it seems we don't need to worry about precip type. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 High end from the NWS is 7". so, at least the potential is there for a nice overachiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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