TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That 4-9” on the winter storm watch is a bit worrisome - I was expecting/hoping for 6-12”. If anyone wouldn’t take totals in the higher end of the range they’d be crazy, but 4-5” would sting after being in such a good position for so long. I know the dry slotting and mixing probably won’t be nailed down until much closer to the event, but east solutions are still in play (GEFS ensemble is still not great and the Ukie shifted that way overnight). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 35 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: 6z Euro still gives 8" at PIT, so starting to converge higher. This guy is giving 11-16" https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-guess-snow-map-for-jan-16-17-tenn-valley-east-coast-winter-storm-d31a02503f1b I love it! Looks like we generally held again overnight. Good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Has the GFS been the better model this winter so far? Seems it picked up the last two events better and earlier than the others, especially the D.C./Virginia/I-95 mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Channel 11 is not so bullish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That 4-9” on the winter storm watch is a bit worrisome - I was expecting/hoping for 6-12”. If anyone wouldn’t take totals in the higher end of the range they’d be crazy, but 4-5” would sting after being in such a good position for so long. I know the dry slotting and mixing probably won’t be nailed down until much closer to the event, but east solutions are still in play (GEFS ensemble is still not great and the Ukie shifted that way overnight). I wouldn’t worry too much. Still 48 hours out. It’s easier for them to up totals then to scare everyone and then drop the totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Channel 11 is not so bullish.... Those forecasts come directly from TWC, I believe, and they conveniently left out the “night” portions, which say 5-8 for Sunday night at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Channel 11 is not so bullish.... This morning Harbaugh had a map showing 5-9 covering the majority of the area. A pocket of 9-12 north of AGC and a 3-5 area south of westmoreland where he thinks mixing will occur. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Those forecasts come directly from TWC, I believe, and they conveniently left out the “night” portions, which say 5-8 for Sunday night at this point. Good I thought it seemed off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Hopefully the Euro is overestimating the dual low idea. Really wants to muddy up the whole storm. SMH Yeah, that look is starting to irritate me, that needs to die off quicker / further south, or just shift the whole mess east and move the nice deform band in eastern OH over us. If we finally get a decent shot from a storm coming up out of the South and some convoluted delayed messy transfer puts us in some localized shaft zone that will make waiting another 20 years for an inland runner all the more painful. Still plenty of time for minor changes that could improve that situation, and verbatim the area affected by that probably still gets at least 6, but you never know how that's going to play out and I'd rather it just be one of the negative variables that gets removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: This morning Harbaugh had a map showing 5-9 covering the majority of the area. A pocket of 9-12 north of AGC and a 3-5 area south of westmoreland where he thinks mixing will occur. . Thanks! Thought I was missing something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 09 z run of the SREFS has kPit at 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, north pgh said: I wouldn’t worry too much. Still 48 hours out. It’s easier for them to up totals then to scare everyone and then drop the totals. Yeah how often have we seen them adjust the totals as the storm approached. Yeah the Euro is concerning but we have seen enough now casting busts to know that it may not be the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah how often have we seen them adjust the totals as the storm approached. Yeah the Euro is concerning but we have seen enough now casting busts to know that it may not be the final outcome. We got to win at some point right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Channel 11 is not so bullish.... Lol. The locals are jokes a lot of the time. They had 3-6 on 2/5/2010 when there was already 6 inches and it was snow+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4-9 seems conservative. Even with the euro most guidance I’d like 6-12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: 4-9 seems conservative. Even with the euro most guidance I’d like 6-12. This far out with some uncertainty best to go middle ground for now. Meso models will tend to fine tune things today and tomorrow especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Lol. The locals are jokes a lot of the time. They had 3-6 on 2/5/2010 when there was already 6 inches and it was snow+ What a storm. Lived in Blairsville at the time. Good luck out there guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 26 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Channel 11 is not so bullish.... That's a choice. Unless they don't mention Sunday snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is the the track we've been waiting for guys. Let's hope it is good to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Finally a good Butler bullseye. I realize lot of you all around Pitt proper but feel free to drive up and get a true winter wonderland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 4-9 seems conservative. Even with the euro most guidance I’d like 6-12. Always better to adjust forecast up, not down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, Ahoff said: This is the the track we've been waiting for guys. Let's hope it is good to us. It is, which is why if the euro verifies it would be pretty awful. This is a track we should have a chance at a 10-20 inch type storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 56 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Has the GFS been the better model this winter so far? Seems it picked up the last two events better and earlier than the others, especially the D.C./Virginia/I-95 mess. I’ve been overall pretty impressed with the GFS’s ability to ferret things out this winter. We’ll see if it’s just as successful when it’s leading the charge for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We’re guaranteed to move up to a tie for 3rd place on this list, but hopefully it ends Sunday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: This morning Harbaugh had a map showing 5-9 covering the majority of the area. A pocket of 9-12 north of AGC and a 3-5 area south of westmoreland where he thinks mixing will occur. . Sounds pretty fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This reminds me of the mid-december storm last year.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Massive freezing rain event on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Mailman said: Massive freezing rain event on the NAM. What a bust that would be. Not a trend you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Verbatim, PIT airport itself backs into a low-end warning event, but that’s ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Verbatim, PIT airport itself backs into a low-end warning event, but that’s ugly. Yeah still a decent thump but man would that be a sloppy storm. The mid levels warm a lot and screw over basically all of PA. Is this the NAM being the NAM or is it on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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