Burghblizz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Mesoscale modes aren’t going to do great with mesoscale features at hour 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That other low pressure reflection meandering in central west virginia probably doesn't help with the dryslot. I'll write it off to bad luck if we get the models spot on with that dry slot from 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 8:49 PM, Burghblizz said: Mesoscale modes aren’t going to do great with mesoscale features at hour 84 Expand I agree, that is probably overdone at this point but that feature is on all models. I've been thinking now I'd rather the storm slip SE and sweat the edge of the deform band and have that slide into central pa. It would be cruel and unusual punishment if we finally get a good overall track but end up with 3 inches while areas 75 miles either direction get a foot lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 9:32 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: I agree, that is probably overdone at this point but that feature is on all models. I've been thinking now I'd rather the storm slip SE and sweat the edge of the deform band and have that slide into central pa. It would be cruel and unusual punishment if we finally get a good overall track but end up with 3 inches while areas 75 miles either direction get a foot lol Expand I’d call it typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 RGEM is solid. 9” at PIT and still good rates through the end of the run. GFS still carrying a foot plus at PIT with 18” as close as HLG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS is still about a foot. Looks weird though as the whole storm seems rather dry/sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 10:06 PM, Ahoff said: GFS is still about a foot. Looks weird though as the whole storm seems rather dry/sparse. Expand Yeah, how likely is it really that we’ll get those insane rates? If nothing else, the 18z runs so far can at least make it easier to take the NAM with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 9:17 PM, dj3 said: That other low pressure reflection meandering in central west virginia probably doesn't help with the dryslot. I'll write it off to bad luck if we get the models spot on with that dry slot from 100 hours out. Expand Definitely need that old 850 vort to die asap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The thing that I like about the GFS is the swath of 8-16 inches seems to be about 300 miles wide. (Getting better) I would lock it in right now.... This is the forecast that I would like come Sunday. "Winter Storm Warning with snow accumulations 8-16 inches." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Personally, I am rooting for the 18z RGEM solution to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 10:39 PM, Mailman said: Personally, I am rooting for the 18z RGEM solution to verify. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 9:59 PM, TimB84 said: RGEM is solid. 9” at PIT and still good rates through the end of the run. GFS still carrying a foot plus at PIT with 18” as close as HLG. Expand Rgem would be a huge hit if it went out further I think. I like gfs and Canadian precip swath better than the spotty crap the Nam threw out there. This is a pretty dynamic system you’d think someone is getting really good rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 10:50 PM, dj3 said: Rgem would be a huge hit if it went out further I think. I like gfs and Canadian precip swath better than the spotty crap the Nam threw out there. This is a pretty dynamic system you’d think someone is getting really good rates Expand Oh yeah, it looks massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 10:39 PM, Mailman said: Personally, I am rooting for the 18z RGEM solution to verify. Expand RGEM puts down about 10" in 7 hours, give or take. If that precip shield maintained integrity, with another six to eight hours of snow, you'd be approaching the two foot mark. The frontogenic forcing is off the charts. Certainly fun to look at. Whomever gets under the CCB in this will definitely win big. Think back to last December and that's why many places in the PIT area hit close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Is RGEM a good model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro looks good, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 12:16 AM, meatwad said: Euro looks good, I think. Expand Ehhhhh. Next frames give is that weird lack of precip. Absolutely perfect track buy dry slotting the whole time. It would be odd as hell as presented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah it’s weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 12:19 AM, KPITSnow said: Ehhhhh. Next frames give is that weird lack of precip. Absolutely perfect track buy dry slotting the whole time. It would be odd as hell as presented. Expand Yep dry slotted again with perfect track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 12:20 AM, dj3 said: Yep dry slotted again with perfect track lol. Expand If you just looked at that track you’d think a foot plus but over us it puts out less than 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Are the upper levels dry? They weren’t that dry in earlier runs, so why would it be lacking precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I seriously wouldn't fret about a dryslot this far out but that's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 12:29 AM, Rd9108 said: I seriously wouldn't fret about a dryslot this far out but that's just my opinion. Expand Especially since it seems the euro is the only model really showing this. The NAM dry slots us because it’s too far west. I don’t think this is even a dryslot….it looks like the “halfacanes” people talk about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 12:29 AM, Rd9108 said: I seriously wouldn't fret about a dryslot this far out but that's just my opinion. Expand Yea I agree. Like I said before it locks into that from this far out tip your cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Precip totals are really low west of the low everywhere on that run compared to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Some of the guidance has the decaying low cutting off the mid level fetch from the Atlantic. Although the latest AFD feels the effects will stay south of the metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 FWIW, SREF plume mean up to just under 6” pretty early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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