KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:51 PM, Mailman said: Canadian is a winner. Expand Honestly almost everything outside the ICON is a winner right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:45 PM, Ahoff said: If they're usually super conservative, this should hopefully be good. Expand Still 3+ days out. I'm sure they will slowly ramp it up based on the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:51 PM, Mailman said: Canadian is a winner. Expand Glorious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 5:09 PM, Rd9108 said: Expand All hail King Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 From Tomer Burg on Twitter. Ran his simulation today. Looks great, but no wiggle room for eastward movements. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:55 PM, KPITSnow said: Honestly almost everything outside the ICON is a winner right now Expand The agreement among the models right now is really solid in terms of track (pending Euro). Starting to get cautiously optimistic, if we are still looking good tomorrow at this time confidence really starts to go up and I'd think Winter Storm Watches go up as well. Even the ICON isn't that far off and really it's solution can't be discounted at this point. GEFS still East, but maybe something with their outdated physics vs GFS OP is getting exploited with this particular setup, either we are getting to the end of ENS usefulness but it would still be nice to see them "catch up" to the operational and other ENS suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:51 PM, Mailman said: Canadian is a winner. Expand It drives the low right up into CNY which gives us a favorable NW flow with a connection to Lake Huron from what I can see, while a little piece of energy ripples through on Monday, another words probably would be a cold / overcast day with persistent light snow. Perfect way to end a Storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The euro is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 LOL at The Weather Channel weenies getting all hyped up because Atlanta may have a bit of Freezing rain. I know they all live in Atlanta but "Come On" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 EC largely held serve. Just a hair east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 6:21 PM, TimB84 said: EC largely held serve. Just a hair east. Expand Yeah it’s fine. Slightly Different evolution and the heavy banding is bouncing around. So it’s location specific output might look a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro pretty much holds suit. That dry slot is going to drive us crazy as the storm starts to approach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The low track seems perfect. Is this more just subsidence between the really good banding just west of the occluded low pressure and the deform band much further west? I would expect a dry slot if this was tracking right over head but it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 6:34 PM, dj3 said: The low track seems perfect. Is this more just subsidence between the really good banding just west of the occluded low pressure and the deform band much further west? I would expect a dry slot if this was tracking right over head but it isn't. Expand Expect a dry slot even if this thing tracks favorably for us. It’s Pittsburgh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I think the surface map has a lot going on. BR always say to track the 500 L. If you stick to that rule, this looks like a solid Euro run for us. The ULL traveling where it is puts us in a good spot. Maybe the western edge, but i still think we are ok for right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Keep in mind also that the storm is officially onshore over Washington. Fresh real-time data injected into the models for 00z runs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 6:37 PM, MikeB_01 said: I think the surface map has a lot going on. BR always say to track the 500 L. If you stick to that rule, this looks like a solid Euro run for us. The ULL traveling where it is puts us in a good spot. Maybe the western edge, but i still think we are ok for right now Expand Isn't this showing the ULL in west central Virginia, or am I missing something? That would almost be too far west, if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 6:39 PM, MikeB_01 said: Keep in mind also that the storm is officially onshore over Washington. Fresh real-time data injected into the models for 00z runs tonight Expand Nerve wracking, crossing fingers for no major shifts away from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 6:55 PM, Ahoff said: Isn't this showing the ULL in west central Virginia, or am I missing something? That would almost be too far west, if that's the case. Expand That picture shows the ULL in southwestern virginia. I should have also include this one which shows its next move after. Moving into southern (kinda) eastern PA. This is pretty good track for us. Is it 12+? Probably not, but that would be a 6-8" track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That really could be a great spot. I hope we have enough distance from the low to get good ratios, but close enough for great rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Everything seems to be going too well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 7:18 PM, Ahoff said: Everything seems to be going too well. Expand Quiet you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is the kind of storm the mesoscale models were made for. I'm waiting for that 36-hour NAM range. I will say the operationals from the big three have been remarkably consistent since Tuesday. For a 5/6 day lead that's quite impressive, especially with such a complex system. Although we also know it's much harder to get an east trend than it is a west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 8:23 PM, Gordo74 said: Quiet you! Expand Just feels like we're going to be pushed of the cliff, lol. The consistency has been remarkable, but is it accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM dryslots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z NAM first sign of trouble? Or just too far out to be trusted yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 8:44 PM, TimB84 said: 18z NAM first sign of trouble? Or just too far out to be trusted yet? Expand Gotta see if other models agree, something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 8:44 PM, TimB84 said: 18z NAM first sign of trouble? Expand That would be a beat down of all beat downs. Good rates to the east and to the west, but we are in the slot. Ugh.. That being said, NAM at 84 hours. I'm not worried yet. We still see that dry slot 24-36 hours, then im worried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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