Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 TWC point and click is up to 7-12" for us! One of the higher totals I've seen from them. Do I expect it to hold...no, but it's at least a high start. Accuweather's first call is 4-8". 31% chance we go higher, 32% we go lower. Pretty even split at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Wunderground dropped from 10” to 8”, but upped totals in Laurel Highlands to 14”. With the winter we’re having, anything over 4” sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 12m Another tool to look at. the ECMWF EFI for snow. Clearly showing the signal for heavy snow west of the I-95. This is from 00Z and like all guidance will jump around. However, you take from this that there is indeed a significant snowstorm coming. @breakingweather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 40 minutes ago, TimB84 said: It looks like they took the first paragraph of the previous discussion, reworded it slightly (it must have been too long), and didn’t carry any of the discussion about the Sun-Mon storm from the 3:30 version. Wow, yeah the discussion I posted above is completely removed now.. That's weird, I thought it did a decent job of describing the situation and uncertainty that still exists. I remember for awhile there were a couple guys (Fries / Booker) that would put their names at the end of the discussions. Fries were always fantastic when interesting weather was afoot. I was at a Skywarn class and even mentioned how much I enjoyed reading discussions when he posted them to the instructor and he was like oh yeah we here that a lot from the local news meteorologist etc. too. Not sure if he moved on or if some directive to keep the discussions shorter / more generic was issued or what. I won't ever bash our local office, but you can see compared to other offices the discussions are usually minimal. Maybe they take the approach of keeping discussions at a high level so as to not bog down the general public in meteorological jargon etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Fries went to Buffalo to be warning coordinator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, Mailman said: Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 12m Another tool to look at. the ECMWF EFI for snow. Clearly showing the signal for heavy snow west of the I-95. This is from 00Z and like all guidance will jump around. However, you take from this that there is indeed a significant snowstorm coming. @breakingweather Heaviest over us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 38 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Wow, yeah the discussion I posted above is completely removed now.. That's weird, I thought it did a decent job of describing the situation and uncertainty that still exists. I remember for awhile there were a couple guys (Fries / Booker) that would put their names at the end of the discussions. Fries were always fantastic when interesting weather was afoot. I was at a Skywarn class and even mentioned how much I enjoyed reading discussions when he posted them to the instructor and he was like oh yeah we here that a lot from the local news meteorologist etc. too. Not sure if he moved on or if some directive to keep the discussions shorter / more generic was issued or what. I won't ever bash our local office, but you can see compared to other offices the discussions are usually minimal. Maybe they take the approach of keeping discussions at a high level so as to not bog down the general public in meteorological jargon etc. I remember Fries. He did write good discussions. Frankly, I’m not met bashing either, I think our local office does an incredible job given that they have to forecast in a region like this, where they have the northern lake effect snowbelts, the Pittsburgh area and all of our climate quirks, the mountains of PA and WV, and even eastern Ohio, which seems to be different enough from Pittsburgh to make forecasting tricky. Writing the discussion is the least of their worries, and it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 FWIW --> GEFS has no clue. Max is 16. Min is 0. Mean is 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Bernie think 4-8 for us unless the further west track verifies. The NAM is still out of its range but he said this kind of storm the NAM will do well on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: FWIW --> GEFS has no clue. Max is 16. Min is 0. Mean is 2. But of course every MA weenie is riding it to oblivion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: But of course every MA weenie is riding it to oblivion I mean the 12z ICON agrees with it and moved east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll be concerned if the GFS OP starts to follow the ensembles. It did the best with first picking up on the trend for a storm Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: I mean the 12z ICON agrees with it and moved east At this point I’ll take the euro, gfs OP, Canadians, over the icon and GEFS. Who knows though. We’ve seen these things disappear on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: At this point I’ll take the euro, gfs OP, Canadians, over the icon and GEFS. Who knows though. We’ve seen these things disappear on us. It's like Lucy holding the football I'm just waiting for the moment when it gets pulled away. I guess when you are snake bit so much that until it's falling we have doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There is still too much time before this storm gets here. We've all seen it before. Bullseye 5 days and then a miss. I am still hoping the models hold or if they do move let it be 50 miles or so. I am fearing the move east but fingers are crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Seems like GFS has held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mailman said: Seems like GFS has held serve. Yep. Was worried about a shift east but looks really similar to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'm looking at the icon my bad, I'm at the gym not really paying enough attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, dj3 said: Yep. Was worried about a shift east but looks really similar to 6z Yes, I agree very similar. I kept toggling back and forth to previous run, if anything maybe it was a little slower. That dryslot is still precariously close, but that won't have any chance of getting nailed down until short term. Like I said before, might be best if we get a little of a jog east so that is more over central PA and even still if you did get caught in that it still a respectable snow storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 looks like NWS is finally starting to showcase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 CMC actually shows us possibly mixing fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: CMC actually shows us possibly mixing fwiw Since I’m not really buying the far west solution I’m fine with it showing that now. I think this ticks back east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS looks like it is starting to come more in line with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Since I’m not really buying the far west solution I’m fine with it showing that now. I think this ticks back east Even so, mixing or not, I think I’d settle for the foot or so of snow that it gives us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: looks like NWS is finally starting to showcase. If they're usually super conservative, this should hopefully be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Even so, mixing or not, I think I’d settle for the foot or so of snow that it gives us. Like I said, foot of snow combined with sleet accumulating would be one of our more impactful storms ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: If they're usually super conservative, this should hopefully be good. Watches tomorrow night or Saturday morning I’m thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Canadian is a winner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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