Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, OutnOakmont said:

Anybody left who is looking at tomorrow and Tuesday? 

Ehh snow will be flying and maybe some on the grass. It will be a wintry day for sure.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

3 hours ago, OutnOakmont said:

Anybody left who is looking at tomorrow and Tuesday? 

Going to need elevation and some intense rates to overcome time of year during the day for much more than a coating on the grass that melts pretty quickly after. It’s going to be a raw miserable day for most I think. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Interestingly the NAM 3K is showing nearly 30" in parts of Tucker County, while they are under a WWA for up to 4 inches. Not much for Pittsburgh city on the Kuchera ratio map, although that's a bit misleading as that is one of the lowest numbers in the metro area due to elevation and urban heat island. The numbers are placed right over the cities and not the airport locations where the obs are taken. Most places are shown in the 1-2" range, including around the airport. More to the northeast where the precipitation lasts longer after the changeover to snow. This is the Kuchera map which generally is less than the 10:1 map, although it might be a bit more in some of the ridge locations.

[TheClimateChanger]

Key takeaway is this will be heavily elevation dependent. Might be difficult to get any accumulation downtown, while some of the more elevated neighborhoods might pick up a half inch. Taken literally, some of the global models do have a few inches in the city but I'd lean towards the mesoscale modeling in this situation. The official observation site will probably see some accumulating snow later, maybe 0.5-1.5 inches. Best chance of 2"+ looks to be in the northeastern parts of the area - northern Butler, Armstrong, Indiana, Venango, Forest, Clarion and Jefferson Counties. The higher totals to the north are partly a function of elevation, and partly a function of the fact that the precipitation lingers longer there into the evening and overnight. The ridges could see much more than the official forecast if the modeling is correct.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interestingly the NAM 3K is showing nearly 30" in parts of Tucker County, while they are under a WWA for up to 4 inches. Not much for Pittsburgh city on the Kuchera ratio map, although that's a bit misleading as that is one of the lowest numbers in the metro area due to elevation and urban heat island. The numbers are placed right over the cities and not the airport locations where the obs are taken. Most places are shown in the 1-2" range, including around the airport. More to the northeast where the precipitation lasts longer after the changeover to snow. This is the Kuchera map which generally is less than the 10:1 map, although it might be a bit more in some of the ridge locations.

Have a feeling models like the HRRR with much more reasonable snow totals in the ridges and basically nothing in the metro area will win out. It’s late April and it’s really hard to get an inch or two of snow this late. This isn’t 4/21/21 with optimal timing and probably isn’t even 4/19/18. Probably more analogous to 4/7/17.

[TheClimateChanger]

30 minutes ago, TimB said:

Have a feeling models like the HRRR with much more reasonable snow totals in the ridges and basically nothing in the metro area will win out. It’s late April and it’s really hard to get an inch or two of snow this late. This isn’t 4/21/21 with optimal timing and probably isn’t even 4/19/18. Probably more analogous to 4/7/17.

12Z HRRR wasn't too dissimilar. I used the actual modeled ratios for this map, which were less than both the 10:1 and Kuchera maps for the ridges. And less than the 10:1 ratio map, but slightly greater than the Kuchera map for the immediate metro. Pretty much in line with what I said above (which admittedly was more conservative than the NAM 3K since I had looked at the full suite of modeling before posting). Little if any downtown, but does show up to an inch in western Allegheny and up to 2" in northern Allegheny. With again the best chances of 2"+ being from Butler County northeast. 

Significantly less for the ridges, but still shows up to a foot in eastern Tucker (the Kuchera and 10:1 maps both showed up to 14" in eastern Tucker).

[TheClimateChanger]

I should add while the advisory for Tucker County only states up to 4 inches, the official NWS snowfall forecast map does show 6-8 inches in the far eastern parts of the county in the very highest of elevations. But I guess due to the localized nature of the heavier totals, they just stuck to the advisory countywide there.

[Burghblizz]

Snow/sleet mix now in Cranberry, after mostly rain this morning. 
 

(Edit: big fatties flying now)

[TheClimateChanger]

Just switched over to wet snow here over the last 10 or 15 minutes, but it looks like the back edge of the heaviest returns are pushing northward.

[MikeB_01]

Back to rain in the south hills. It had transitioned to snow and sleet. At least in Bridgeville I have rain


.

[KPITSnow]

Man, two months ago this would have been a nice thump.

[TheClimateChanger]

Looks like it is accumulating at Seven Springs.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Man, two months ago this would have been a nice thump.

Yeah, we can't win around here. In the wintertime, it's often below or near freezing but rain or wintry mix due to warm air aloft. In the springtime, its below freezing aloft but just above freezing at the surface so the snow melts in the last couple hundred feet or makes it to the surface and then melts on contact.

[Burghblizz]

Mod snow right now. Mulch, grass, roofs, cars all have caved. Still really slushy though. Could use a couple degree temp drop. 

[TheClimateChanger]

This is going to be another cold rain in the 30s, while central and northeast PA get clobbered, isn't it?

[CoraopolisWx]

Hard to be disappointed in April, but was hoping for some snow tv today. 
The stronger CAD flow warmed the low levels a bit to much unfortunately. 
Hopefully we get some flakes tomorrow. 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This is going to be another cold rain in the 30s, while central and northeast PA get clobbered, isn't it?

If this actually happened I’d take 1.8” of snow in May no matter how much anyone else got. Would be our third 1” May event ever.

[Ahoff]

10 hours ago, TimB said:

If this actually happened I’d take 1.8” of snow in May no matter how much anyone else got. Would be our third 1” May event ever.

That's ridiculous at that point.

[Burghblizz]

This band north of the city is thumpin. Training a bit too.
 

After this, ready for some warmth. 

[KPITSnow]

Roads are actually getting covered here. Tells you how intense it is.

 

NWs doesn’t even have a special weather statement lol. 
 

honestly completely asleep at the wheel. Quarter mile vis and snow +

[TimB]

Truly glorious to see the snow stick to everything in the middle of the day this far into April.

[north pgh]

Big flakes are flying now starting to stick.

[Rd9108]

5 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Big flakes are flying now starting to stick.

Yeah went to grab a shirt and looked outside and amazed at the situation. biggggg flakes

[TimB]

0.7” at PIT makes it official: this won’t be merely an average snow season, it’ll be a slightly above average snow season.

[Ahoff]

Pretty good for a winter that ended on February 6th, lol.  Now I’ll make the call for no 90s this summer, ha.

Just joking.  All in good fun.

[Ahoff]

The weather app, that I have centered on KPIT is currently 87.  Could make it but upper 80s is more likely.