Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So EPS the west leaning members increased and the east members got further west. I'd say that's a solid trend let's just hope this doesn't wind up coming right up our neighborhood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: So EPS the west leaning members increased and the east members got further west. I'd say that's a solid trend let's just hope this doesn't wind up coming right up our neighborhood. Mean snowfall increased a bit from 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That's good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: That's good news. I count about 15-20 closes misses or whiffs on individual members. Almost all look to be East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, dj3 said: I count about 15-20 closes misses or whiffs on individual members. Almost all look to be East. That's conflicting from Rd's post about the western members being higher and the eastern being further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ahoff said: That's conflicting from Rd's post about the western members being higher and the eastern being further west. Just going by snowfall maps from upstate ny thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hopefully that is ok to copy and paste those. Apologize if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A lot of good hits in there. That’s the best eps run I’ve seen thus far with the least number of total whiffs. Consensus building I would say for some type of impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, dj3 said: A lot of good hits in there. That’s the best eps run I’ve seen thus far with the least number of total whiffs. Consensus building I would say for some type of impact. Let’s hope. If this were Friday, I’d feel really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 FWIW, WUnderground for Ross Twp started the day at 4", now shows 10". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ICON is east of its 12z run fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: ICON is east of its 12z run fwiw I know people use the ICON as an additional resource, but I really don't think the model has much value. That said, this storm becoming a Central PA special is definitely not out of the question. Unfortunately, if it becomes a stacked and occluded low, you're going to have a tight bowling-ball precip shield. To get the best snowfall then you'd have to be on the western border of the central LP with not much room for error. Obviously the exact track is still waffling, but you get this scenario and move the low back east away from us and suddenly PIT's potential goes from 8-12" to 2-4" or the like. It's not a normal Miller A with expansive overrunning. The ensembles appear to keep lagging behind the operationals. If the operationals start jumping east, watch for the ensembles to catch up in a couple cycles. TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS looks good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mailman said: GFS looks good. Lots of details to be worked out - but I love that look of a captured /retrograding storm. Puts accumulating snow well into Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mailman said: GFS looks good. 500 and 850 lows are still solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS is so far west almost that we would potentially have dry slot and mixing issues. It pushes the "bullseye" up into western OH though we still get crushed and for us verbatim would be an all time impactful storm if we get ten inches and ice. That said, have we EVER seen a track like this actually verify? I remember a storm about 12-15 years ago that was supposed to destroy us but ended up an Ohio blizzard and fringed us and we mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Also, when I saw the ICON I did expect a jump east....but no way did I expect it to go further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: GFS is so far west almost that we would potentially have dry slot and mixing issues. It pushes the "bullseye" up into western OH though we still get crushed and for us verbatim would be an all time impactful storm if we get ten inches and ice. That said, have we EVER seen a track like this actually verify? I remember a storm about 12-15 years ago that was supposed to destroy us but ended up an Ohio blizzard and fringed us and we mixed. I dont buy that rain/snow map. Low track still look really good for us. If it take that track through Harrisburg we should be real good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: I dont buy that rain/snow map. Low track still look really good for us. If it take that track through Harrisburg we should be real good I think it is more of when the low retrogrades almost all the way back to Cumberland Maryland is where the issues would show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS are way southeast of the operational. What a forecasting nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ron Smiley seemed very confident about heavy snow for this. And even talked about accumulating snow Tuesday into Wednesday also. This could be a great week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Overnight runs all still look decent from quick looks. NWS has a decent discussion on the storm and addresses that dryslot between precip maxes near the low center and the deformation band that we have been seeing. I'm not sure what to look for on that, other than getting the low center slightly further east so we stay firmly in the deform band. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad longwave troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS this weekend and likely through the entirety of next week, bringing persistent cold weather and occasional snow chances to the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains. Attention is on the upcoming winter storm Sunday into Monday. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has come closer in agreement with confidence slowly increasing towards an accumulating snowfall event for much of the forecast area. By late Saturday night, the low will begin to track from the TN Valley area northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and then eventually New England by Monday. There`s been nearly unanimous westward shift in the latest ensemble suites, with less energy diverted into developing a strong sfc low along the coastline. If latest consensus were to verify and the center of the surface / low-level low were to track northeastward just east of the spine of Appalachia, this would place the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains in a climatologically favorable(-for snow) spot on the north/northwest side of low, within the deformation snow band and then wrap around moisture and cyclonic flow as the low departs. However, there is often times an axis of lesser precip/snow, essentially a dry slot, between the low center and the deformation snow band. For this reason, it`s unlikely we`ll be able to provide a high-confidence accumulation forecast until perhaps just 24 hours. That said, p-type is just about a non-issue with this storm given the colder air in place, so we can at least say with confidence that snow will fall... we`re just unsure how much at this time. Latest ensemble means do suggest 3+ inches is becoming probable in much of the area east of I-77, with 6 inches or more entirely possible wherever banding occurs. Winter storm watches/warnings are likely in the coming days as this system gets closer. After the system departs Monday, cold northwest low-level flow off the Great Lakes will likely result in some chance for additional snow into Tuesday, followed by another quick-hitting clipper creating a chance for light snow on Wednesday as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6Z GFS vs 00Z Euro, tracks arent that far off. 0Z Euro seems less amped. Both snow track and low location on Monday morning,. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I fully expected SE shifts overnight. I resigned myself to that, but now I'm getting more excited than I want to be. I've just never seen us in the bullseye for this long. Feels like it has to be different, but still worried, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: I fully expected SE shifts overnight. I resigned myself to that, but now I'm getting more excited than I want to be. I've just never seen us in the bullseye for this long. Feels like it has to be different, but still worried, lol. It’s not the mixing, nor a miss east, that will get us. It’s going to be the dry slot this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, TimB84 said: It’s not the mixing, nor a miss east, that will get us. It’s going to be the dry slot this time. We'll cross that bridge if we get there, lol. Even the WPC has the 70-90% chance of .25"+ QFP over us now. Never seen that here, I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I have to laugh… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I have to laugh… That’s absolutely ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: That’s absolutely ridiculous It looks like they took the first paragraph of the previous discussion, reworded it slightly (it must have been too long), and didn’t carry any of the discussion about the Sun-Mon storm from the 3:30 version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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