Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[blackngoldrules]

Not to bring people down but to me a lot of times it comes down to timing of the storm. For example: yesterday I received close to 4 inches of snow in a 4 to 5 hour period. We had 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow and I was able to see it and be in it. What if we get 5-7 inches of snow with the next storm and the majority of it falls from midnight to 8:00 am? Big deal I wake up to all that snow on the ground and the snow is is winding down to light stuff and is over. Then I get to shovel it. Not fun but we got a 7 inch snowfall. Big wow.
Question for everyone here.
1. Would you rather have 4 inches fall in 4 hours with big flakes during the day or
2. A foot of snow overnight while we sleep and is over when you wake up?
I go with 1. 

Well, since I have to work Saturday, I'd take number 1, just because I have to go to bed early to get up early and then have to drive in it. If I was off Saturday, I'd probably stay up a lot of the night and watch it fall, especially since this could be our last significant one if it works out.

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[Ahoff]

Would never give up a foot of snow just cause it fell at night.

[meatwad]

[meatwad]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
850 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022

OHZ050-059-068-069-PAZ008-009-014>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-111000-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.220312T0600Z-220313T0600Z/
Jefferson OH-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Venango-Forest-Butler-Clarion-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-
Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-Higher
Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Caldwell, Greensburg, Woodsfield, Butler,
Rowlesburg, Tionesta, Kittanning, Hendricks, New Martinsville,
Brookville, Monessen, Canaan Valley, Uniontown, Pittsburgh Metro
Area, Weirton, Murrysville, Lower Burrell, Waynesburg, Hazelton,
Donegal, Steubenville, Moundsville, Indiana, Ford City, Wheeling,
Thomas, Martins Ferry, Canonsburg, Ohiopyle, Washington,
Follansbee, Franklin, Ligonier, Terra Alta, Davis, Clarion, New
Kensington, Fairmont, Champion, Morgantown, Latrobe, Bruceton
Mills, Beaver Falls, Monaca, Saint George, Aliquippa, Kingwood,
Parsons, Wellsburg, Ambridge, Punxsutawney, St. Clairsville,
Coopers Rock, and Oil City
850 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph, with gusts
  up to 50 mph possible in the Laurel Highlands and the higher
  terrain of West Virginia.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of western
  Pennsylvania. Portions of northern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Roads will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel
  could be very difficult. The strong wind could bring down tree
  limbs or power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

 

[Rd9108]

They are doubling down. NAM isn't bad just seems drier than normal. 

[TimB]

GFS continues to look pretty good. Most everything else continues to look pretty meh. Something has to give.

[PghPirates27]

If I’m not mistaken GFS has been colder and  had high snowfalls the last few storms and caves at the last minute. Seems to be the truth is in the middle so a 2-5” storm seems about right. I’ll take it at this point!

[TheClimateChanger]

7 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

If I’m not mistaken GFS has been colder and  had high snowfalls the last few storms and caves at the last minute. Seems to be the truth is in the middle so a 2-5” storm seems about right. I’ll take it at this point!

I hope it's not on the lower end of your range. The only model I've seen that low is the UK Met. But the UK Met looks to be off in la-la land compared to everything else. Even the Euro would support 3"+ areawide.

With the exception of the UK Met, I think there's actually much better model agreement with this than the typical storm. We're often looking at guidance showing 6"+ in places and other guidance showing rain/mix. The GFS and Canadian are showing around 7" in Pittsburgh. Most of the other shorter term guidance seems to be in the 4-5" range, maybe 6". Even the newly completed 03z RAP run, which I thought looked horrible, brings a solid 4-5" for most of the area with 6-7" in Greene and Fayette Counties.

[TheClimateChanger]

If I were to make a call based on the current weight of guidance, I'd say 4-5" north of the city. There could be a bit more north of I-80 if some lake enhancement/lake effect were to occur. Looks like about 5" in the city and immediate 'burbs, with perhaps 6 inches down towards Elizabeth/Jefferson. A bit more south of I-70, with some 7 inch amounts possible in southern Washington, Greene and Fayette Counties. The Laurel Highlands look to have the best chance to see more than 7 inches of accumulation.

[PghPirates27]

I wonder where the water channel is pulling from. 1-3” tomorrow night then 1” or less Saturday. That’s 2-4” max. 

Very glad to hear more agreement than usual on the models. Maybe that bodes we’ll for us here.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

I wonder where the water channel is pulling from. 1-3” tomorrow night then 1” or less Saturday. That’s 2-4” max. 

Very glad to hear more agreement than usual on the models. Maybe that bodes we’ll for us here.

Yeah, I just checked. They do have 1-4" (1-3" Fri. night and less than an inch Saturday) which is actually down from 2-6" earlier. The lower end of that range doesn't seem credible. I mean it could be right but I don't see any model support for less than 2" at all, the upper part of that range (3,4") isn't too far off from what I'm thinking (4,5" maybe 6" south).

[TheClimateChanger]

00z UKMET finally got a clue. This is with 10:1 ratios since Pivotal doesn't have a Kuchera map, but ratios should be more like 15:1. So you can increase these totals by about 50% to make it match the other Kuchera maps. Even so, now brings 4-6 inches from southern Washington, Greene, Fayette, Westmoreland, and 2-4 inches north. With ratios, would be more like 6-8 inches south and 3-5 inches north, which is now not too dissimilar to the other guidance.

[TheClimateChanger]

Still on the lower end, since even with ratios, would be just under 4 inches in the city center. But at least now it's more or less in line with the rest of the guidance. Which is why I said I think there's actually greater agreement than usual. With the UKMet more in line, it looks like the lowest guidance - RAP, Euro, UK - would still support about 4" or so in the city, with the highest guidance - GFS, Canadian - showing about 7" or so. That's a pretty tight spread, no?

[Ecanem]

Nws lowered totals. 
 Wwa now  

 

[Rd9108]

alright time for the usual last minute NW shift now, right?????

[KPITSnow]

20 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

alright time for the usual last minute NW shift now, right?????

Nope. 

[Ahoff]

Commence melt downs because we get 4" instead of 8".

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Commence melt downs because we get 4" instead of 8".

Not convinced we’re getting 4 either but it is what it is. On to thunderstorm season, then months of it being 88 and miserably humid while Syracuse gets to 95.

[Ahoff]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

Not convinced we’re getting 4 either but it is what it is. On to thunderstorm season, then months of it being 88 and miserably humid while Syracuse gets to 95.

Exactly, it's time!  On last winter gasp (likely) and move forward.  Hopefully, no snow on Mother's Day this year, though a very heavy rain is pretty usual that day, lol.

[KPITSnow]

29 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Commence melt downs because we get 4" instead of 8".

Where am I melting down. How about you stop trolling constantly. 

[TimB]

So let’s say it’s 4”. Will it survive the sun angle of a mostly cloudy mid-March day with temperatures in the low 20s, or will it be gone before sunset?

[KPITSnow]

2 minutes ago, TimB said:

So let’s say it’s 4”. Will it survive the sun angle of a mostly cloudy mid-March day with temperatures in the low 20s, or will it be gone before sunset?

It will stick around, but by Monday morning it’s mostly gone

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

It will stick around, but by Monday morning it’s mostly gone

Meh. Next week looked warm even when we were hoping for a bigger storm, so even that wouldn’t have hung around long.

[TimB]

HRRR puts down a solid 5”, with some areas of the county exceeding 6” in places that see the lake enhanced bands in NW flow (which the NWS admits may be overdone).

[KPITSnow]

Just now, TimB said:

Meh. Next week looked warm even when we were hoping for a bigger storm, so even that wouldn’t have hung around long.

What I want to see is how long some of these glacier type snow piles stick around. They are pretty solid because of the ice storms and there are still some at Ross park 5 or 6 feet high. If we add a bit to them maybe they stick till April?

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

What I want to see is how long some of these glacier type snow piles stick around. They are pretty solid because of the ice storms and there are still some at Ross park 5 or 6 feet high. If we add a bit to them maybe they stick till April?

How? I thought there was a Ross snow hole in the MLK storm. 

[Rd9108]

This is gonna overperform 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I'll be in deep creek for this, looks to be in the bullseye so to speak. Forecast there is 4-8 with 45-55mph winds then possibly localized blizzard conditions in NW flow after the synoptic portion. I didn't plan the trip with the intention to chase but looks like its going to work out. This may ruin my expectation for winter weather in my own yard lol

Given the dynamics of this storm and time of year I'd think it has a better chance of over performing even though the track is a bit further SE and more progressive than it looked a few days ago. Keep your expectation in check and enjoy what happens, I think there will still be a period of heavy snow and post frontal passage the wind gusts should be impressive with embedded snow. Most likely our last snow even to track until next season.

 

[Ahoff]

46 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Where am I melting down. How about you stop trolling constantly. 

I didn't say you were, but the banter thread might beg to differ.  And you really have not one inch of room to talk about trolling.  You've done it for two months at this point.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

42 minutes ago, TimB said:

So let’s say it’s 4”. Will it survive the sun angle of a mostly cloudy mid-March day with temperatures in the low 20s, or will it be gone before sunset?

No doubt it will start melting Sunday but should look pretty wintry Saturday. It is March, snow pack retention is unrealistic. That's why I say go big or go home in March, bring it hot and heavy over a short period of time and enjoy the rates because you know it probably starts melting shortly after.