Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,603
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, dj3 said:

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

Man... look at that low placement.. I feel like I'm a kid again in the 90s and Joe Denardo is about to come on the air lol I'm sure it hasn't been that long since a storm took this track but it feels like it and no doubt its rare. Euro gets more phase with that trailing energy allowing it to go almost due north and thus further west at our latitude. That part is only 76 hours out or so, and will be the make or break for us I think. Not to get greedy but we do have some room still on the Euro for slight adjustments west. To bad it's not Saturday lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I can't imagine with the trends that this goes from suppressed and out to sea all the way to Great Lakes Cutter, so I'd imagine the western limit is approaching, and eastern corrections should start soon, doesn't mean it won't come back, but the wobble mode is probably at hand.

Agree. I can't believe we have 4 more nights of models to go. You know there will be movement somewhere. Let's hope it wobbles back and forth but these 4 nights I am sure will be stressful with ups and downs. Why can't it just be Saturday night already. (SMH)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS mean bumped up a decent amount like the GEFS did. 6 inch line splitting Allegheny county. I agree with both of you above, I am still slightly more concerned that the low does not get pulled directly north and takes more of an out to sea trajectory. Until I see some of the misses on the ensembles start to become slop/west misses I still think we have some wiggle room there. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

image.png.5e5fcf53e83897d468fb0d514f87dadd.png
 

Buzzkills.

Probably pretty irritating with all the self proclaimed Twitter certified meteorologists posting snowmaps for a storm 4 - 5 days away proclaiming the pretty pictures as absolute while being a real outlet like NWS trying to separate fact from fiction and actually inform the public. 

We are still very much within the envelope where this is a minor event or misses altogether. Models aren't likely to have the speed and strength of the follow up energy which ultimately phases and tugs the storm NW nailed down. That's the feature to watch along with strength of the storm and how far NE it makes it before that interaction happens.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

What do we need to see out of the storm Thursday and Friday near the coast to know if we’ll be in good or bad shape with this one?  And where are we with that one?

From what I’ve read we want that to move out quicker or be further East so that ridging can build along the coast and not allow this to escape out to sea/force it more inland toward the apps or coastal plain. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the last few cycles that ocean storm has trended closer to the coast and slower to depart but it had been offset by the northern steam energy phasing in being stronger and forcing this directly north like @RitualOfTheTroutmentioned. I’m guessing we will need that to continue to be as potent or the ocean storm trends will shift this east. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...