RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 12 hours ago, KPITSnow said: I’m not sure why everyone is ready to just go to spring. When we get to March, fine because with sun angle you have to get a real monster for a good storm, and 2-4 events just kind of suck and don’t even really accumulate on roads. I do not want a February torch though as it is usually our last best chance at storms, and given that just a few days ago the GFS was signaling a pattern with a bunch of potential and now it looks like a crap sandwich and that winter is basically over outside a March Hail Mary…and if it ends like this it will go down as a really awful winter. I don't want to go to spring but if the pattern being advertised comes to fruition we won't have much chance and I'd rather not have a bunch of 35 degree rain storms. Certainly we will have cold shots still and maybe we time something right. I agree with you about March, go big or go home. Give me a 6-12+ paste bomb or don't bother. I'll take little 2-4 / 1-2 inch type stuff all day long Mid December through Mid Feb especially if it's staying cold and we are adding to a snow pack. But something like that vaporizes by noon in March. Really detracts from my enjoyment when snow is melting before you even start shoveling. Speaking of snow pack, it's still holding on in my yard but barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 This isn’t going to be a popular post, but if it’s going to be basically 100 degrees next week maybe we can get a 2/24/19 type wind event with the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Already at 50.1 with a NWS forecast high of 49. They always underestimate the warm air in the winter. Edit: up to 52.7 and climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 PIT has reached 56. We’re so good at torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Ended up 5.7 degrees above NWS forecast from 7am this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 hours ago, TimB said: PIT has reached 56. We’re so good at torching. That's exactly what Ron Smiley forecasted this morning. Also, it's been since January 1st, since we've been this high. That's unusual in the winter. I'd say we still have had a pretty impressive run of non extreme warm temperatures. Even 56, while warm, is too extreme in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 15 hours ago, Ahoff said: That's exactly what Ron Smiley forecasted this morning. Also, it's been since January 1st, since we've been this high. That's unusual in the winter. I'd say we still have had a pretty impressive run of non extreme warm temperatures. Even 56, while warm, is too extreme in winter. It’s 17 degrees above normal, like 100 degrees in summer would be. All jokes aside, I know there’s much more variation in winter and that going 40 days without hitting 50 degrees is about a five year event and we’ve now done it two years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: It’s 17 degrees above normal, like 100 degrees in summer would be. All jokes aside, I know there’s much more variation in winter and that going 40 days without hitting 50 degrees is about a five year event and we’ve now done it two years in a row. You can't compare anomalies in the winter to the summer. January's record high is 75, about 40 above normal, July, the record is half of that above average. I'd say 17 above average in February is more like 91-93 in summer, which while warm is not unusual, much like the 56 yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ahoff said: You can't compare anomalies in the winter to the summer. January's record high is 75, about 40 above normal, July, the record is half of that above average. I'd say 17 above average in February is more like 91-93 in summer, which while warm is not unusual, much like the 56 yesterday. Correct, hence my “all jokes aside” disclaimer. 56 in February happens probably close to every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Well seems that a SSWE maybe taking place here soon which would lead to a return of winter in March. We may start tracking again in a few weeks but until then we may warm up for a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 This is starting to feel like December. Check a few longer-range panels per day in both operational/ensemble models for a pattern change, see a lot of red on the 500 anomaly map, rinse and repeat. Only difference is in December it was highly likely there were more chances to come. Now met spring is within GFS range. Would be hard to give the winter on the whole much more than a C- if our season total doesn’t get to 30”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: This is starting to feel like December. Check a few longer-range panels per day in both operational/ensemble models for a pattern change, see a lot of red on the 500 anomaly map, rinse and repeat. Only difference is in December it was highly likely there were more chances to come. Now met spring is within GFS range. Would be hard to give the winter on the whole much more than a C- if our season total doesn’t get to 30”. Yeah, if we don’t anything else significant it’s pretty much a D or worse for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Yeah, if we don’t anything else significant it’s pretty much a D or worse for me. Yeah our season total of 25.6” at the airport almost surely means your little snow desert microclimate is below 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Had some flurries this morning. Some possible heavier snow showers late this afternoon could give some 1/2 to 1 inch fluffy snow. After the warmup hoping to get some backend snow after the front on Friday. Doesn't look promising but 12z Canadian hinting at possible but right now it is on it's own. Looking for anything positive in this calm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 hours ago, TimB said: Yeah our season total of 25.6” at the airport almost surely means your little snow desert microclimate is below 20”. Wouldn’t be shocked to add a sneaky inch or two to that over the course of the day. I’ve had some squalls on and off so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Burghblizz said: Wouldn’t be shocked to add a sneaky inch or two to that over the course of the day. I’ve had some squalls on and off so far. The Allegheny County split has held pretty strong so far. Hope these squalls can become a little more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Off and on snow showers. Problem is get a coating and it’s gone in 20 minutes even with the temp at 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 8 hours ago, north pgh said: Had some flurries this morning. Some possible heavier snow showers late this afternoon could give some 1/2 to 1 inch fluffy snow. After the warmup hoping to get some backend snow after the front on Friday. Doesn't look promising but 12z Canadian hinting at possible but right now it is on it's own. Looking for anything positive in this calm pattern. Interested to see if the Canadian was just a fluke, and if not, does the Euro move in anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Surprised by the dusting this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 This upcoming pattern sucks. February 2017, here we come. Wouldn’t be surprised to hit 70 before the month is over, for the 3rd year out of the last 6. Euro now has us pushing 70 by next Tuesday, GFS by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 33 minutes ago, TimB said: This upcoming pattern sucks. February 2017, here we come. Wouldn’t be surprised to hit 70 before the month is over, for the 3rd year out of the last 6. Euro now has us pushing 70 by next Tuesday, GFS by Wednesday. Let's calm down and let the very long range just be that. If we get to the weekend and it says that fine. We've seen tons of snowstorms in the long range that didn't happen (tomorrow for example). Pump the brakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Let's calm down and let the very long range just be that. If we get to the weekend and it says that fine. We've seen tons of snowstorms in the long range that didn't happen (tomorrow for example). Pump the brakes. Day 9-10 on pretty much every operational and ensemble model is the very long range? I understand we shouldn’t be tracking storms at that range but the upper pattern is fair game if everything is in good agreement, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 51 minutes ago, TimB said: Day 9-10 on pretty much every operational and ensemble model is the very long range? I understand we shouldn’t be tracking storms at that range but the upper pattern is fair game if everything is in good agreement, right? But nailing down temperatures is also not something we should do, if that were the case we should have seen -15 or -20 a couple times this year and a few 100 degree temperatures over the summer. Will it be above average, probably, can we say it will be 70, right now...no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: But nailing down temperatures is also not something we should do, if that were the case we should have seen -15 or -20 a couple times this year and a few 100 degree temperatures over the summer. Will it be above average, probably, can we say it will be 70, right now...no. I didn’t say it will be, I said I wouldn’t be surprised if it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, TimB said: I didn’t say it will be, I said I wouldn’t be surprised if it was. Still, it's a waiting game. No use getting worried about it when it's still 8-9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Still, it's a waiting game. No use getting worried about it when it's still 8-9 days out. That’s probably accurate, and besides, the 0z Euro had us just barely on the bad side of a system mid-next week as the unseasonable warmth retreats. Probably will look totally different at 12z but the battle between warm and cold might still be ongoing. Edit: 12z is completely different. Unseasonably warm and humid. Would think as we get closer, the ens will trend toward the near-record temps on the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 hours ago, TimB said: Day 9-10 on pretty much every operational and ensemble model is the very long range? I understand we shouldn’t be tracking storms at that range but the upper pattern is fair game if everything is in good agreement, right? 500mb I think is fairly accurate at day 8-10 still, at least for a general idea of where ridging / troughing will be. Temperatures and discrete storm threats no; however that's not to say if you see ridging in the east it's wrong to assume odds favor above average but I wouldn't expect modeled 2m temperatures to be a solid bet at that range. I'm not saying it's wrong either, sometimes extremes do verify but there's a good reason outlooks start to weigh climo more the further out you get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 False spring according to JB. Also, there are rumbling of a SSW event occurring soon, so perhaps delayed spring as well. Fun times ahead for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, snowsux said: False spring according to JB. Also, there are rumbling of a SSW event occurring soon, so perhaps delayed spring as well. Fun times ahead for sure. Yep the ensembles are starting to see it as well. Not to mention Canada is very cold and that cold isn't just gonna disappear. I wouldn't mind one more period of tracking before we flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 this looks familiar g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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