dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like this would be a pretty nice hit on the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Gordo74 said: WTAE picked up on it this morning with only a vague “could be potentially looking at a significant snowfall event, but still too early to tell and you will hear it here first” tagline. Wunderground showed 4” last night, 6” this morning for the same time period. KDKA gave the same line, but showed the GFS, no totals though, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: KDKA gave the same line, but showed the GFS, no totals though, obviously. The grocery store was fairly empty (people, not shelves, other than the normal supply chain stuff we’re faced with these days) last night. Glad I went before the local media hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, dj3 said: UKMET and EURO are still east enough that I think ground truth ending up between the GFS and other models would leave us happy. We are always walking a fine line, 24 hours ago we needed a huge west shift to even be in the game. We get it, and now we're already worrying about mixing haha. That's what is keeping me cautiously optimistic. Ensembles aren't as far west, but ticking into good territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: That's what is keeping me cautiously optimistic. Ensembles aren't as far west, but ticking into good territory. A lot of the western tracks on the ensembles (GFS and EURO only ones I looked at this morning) are actually pretty big hits for us. The mean isn't higher because there are still a decent number of suppressed solutions and misses east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS 12Z rolling in is looking closer to 00Z looks a little stronger on the 500mb too. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cut back on precip totals some, especially east of the city. Still a nice run for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, dj3 said: Cut back on precip totals some, especially east of the city. Still a nice run for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ecanem said: GFS 12Z rolling in is looking closer to 00Z looks a little stronger on the 500mb too. Let's see where it goes. Stronger and maybe a little dicey for the Mon Valley. North of city looks great. Still good run IMO since there is some “too far east” leaning guidance out there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yeah, that's still not a bad run. We can't expect to see 18"+ on every run, need to temper expectation, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'll take 6-10 in a heartbeat. We just need the Euro to move west and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12Z nudged east just slightly, which at least ends the northwest trend. For now that's good. The snowfall maps are wonky but don't worry about those too much. The GFS is generally poor at mesoscale features and placement. This system looks to have some intense frontogenic forcing and deform banding. I also don't think this storm has that high-end of a potential. 8-12" is probably the appropriate ceiling. It's not a 24-hour storm, which is what we need to see those historic numbers. The bulk of the snow is done in 12 hours, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, dj3 said: Cut back on precip totals some, especially east of the city. Still a nice run for now. GFS has the primary holding on to long, so that area gets a double whammy, 1st there are mixing issues there, 2nd that area gets caught in a dryslot as the dying low transfers over. Overall get that to happen quicker / further south like the ICON and problem solved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, north pgh said: I'll take 6-10 in a heartbeat. We just need the Euro to move west and we are in business. I agree 6-10 would be great. Hopefully we are starting to see the Euro and GFS take steps towards each other today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It’s kind of amazing that if we get 6-10 we are thrilled but the MA or NYC folks get it try lose their minds because it isn’t 18 inches plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, that's still not a bad run. We can't expect to see 18"+ on every run, need to temper expectation, lol. I am only settling for the top 3 GEFS ensemble members @MikeB_01 posted this morning due to them being higher than the spread of the Steeler game on Sunday night. I will adjust my expectations accordingly if we are winning at halftime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looking good but a lot can change between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: GFS has the primary holding on to long, so that area gets a double whammy, 1st there are mixing issues there, 2nd that area gets caught in a dryslot as the dying low transfers over. Overall get that to happen quicker / further south like the ICON and problem solved. Thanks. Yea I'd gladly take what it is showing regardless, especially with the cold look afterwards any significant accumulations will be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: That is a massive shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yea that is way west from 00z. GEFS look like they took a big jump for us. Mean over 6 inches regionwide with several members over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Now I’m invested and excited…which inevitably means this will shift back east…or go far enough west it rains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ha, told my wife that if this storm started to solidify into anything more than a few inches that I'd fix the snow thrower this weekend. ...oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Canadian is a crusher for us too. I'm scared to be in the bullseye this far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This has gotten much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: Canadian is a crusher for us too. I'm scared to be in the bullseye this far out. I'm definitely worried about that too. Still looks like ensembles have room to move west before it's too much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: Canadian is a crusher for us too. I'm scared to be in the bullseye this far out. Everyone buckle up... Right now we are in the drivers seat. We know that models waffle and this one definitely will. Prepare for some shifts in either way and hope that it comes back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 oh boy here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I'm definitely worried about that too. Still looks like ensembles have room to move west before it's too much though. I can certainly remember times we went from a storm that missed us east to a storm that turned us to rain changing on the models in the span of two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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