Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[Burghblizz]

11 hours ago, TimB said:

0z GFS: 1.2” QPF from the late week event, 0.13” zr, 0.5” snow, approximately a full inch of precip wasted on rain.

It’s a rain storm. So not really wasted since it was never in the cards. Beautiful day today. Hopefully something pops up after this system. 

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

It’s a rain storm. So not really wasted since it was never in the cards. Beautiful day today. Hopefully something pops up after this system. 

A winter month that is going to end up close to normal temperatures with double the normal precip, 90% of which fell as rain, is a terrible waste of precip as far as I’m concerned.

[CoraopolisWx]

51 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

It’s a rain storm. So not really wasted since it was never in the cards. Beautiful day today. Hopefully something pops up after this system. 

The timing for the potential Sunday event looks to be off as of right now. 
Probably will check back on Friday to see if anything changes. 

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Yeah, for a February that will likely end up pretty darn close to or just slightly above normal temp-wise, it’s likely going to be remembered as a torchy rain fest.

Not to me.  This will not be a torch of a month.  Low snow, likely, but not extremely warm.

[PghPirates27]

Hit 60 for the first time in 2022. Forecasted high of 58, went up to 61.0

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Not to me.  This will not be a torch of a month.  Low snow, likely, but not extremely warm.

Any winter month where the vast majority of precip falls as rain is a torch.

[Rd9108]

Time to channel my inner KPIT

This storm is going North of us and the next storm looks like a Philly special. This winter sucks. 

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Any winter month where the vast majority of precip falls as rain is a torch.

Literally no.  If it were all 35 and rain this month, that would be below average temperatures.  You could have 4 days where we got all our precipitation as rain and those days were say 50 degrees, then the rest of the days were below average, that's not a torch.

February 2022 is nowhere near a torch.

[jwilson]

If winter and cold is what you're still after, you can sort of hold out hope for now.  There's no more 50 degree days in the long-term until around March 5th.  It barely touches 40 over the next two weeks.  That warm-up is also like the others: two days and then back into the freezer, with ample cold dumped into the U.S. (likely due to that strengthening -EPO).  That could change, of course, but for now, as long as cold is around, it leaves an opportunity for snow.

I'm personally ready for an early spring, but it looks like we're going to hold onto winter for a while longer.  If we can't eek out more snow in the pattern, that would have to be considered a disappointment.

[Gordo74]

[KPITSnow]

5 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Literally no.  If it were all 35 and rain this month, that would be below average temperatures.  You could have 4 days where we got all our precipitation as rain and those days were say 50 degrees, then the rest of the days were below average, that's not a torch.

February 2022 is nowhere near a torch.

What’s it matter if the precip all falls as rain?

[Ahoff]

15 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

What’s it matter if the precip all falls as rain?

A torch is warm, if it is not warm it is not a torch.  This month will not be a torch, no matter what anyone says.  There will be a lot of rain, as a result of an unlucky pattern, not a torch.

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

A torch is warm, if it is not warm it is not a torch.  This month will not be a torch, no matter what anyone says.  There will be a lot of rain, as a result of an unlucky pattern, not a torch.

Maybe we can have another top 5 wettest year after just a couple years break.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

A torch is warm, if it is not warm it is not a torch.  This month will not be a torch, no matter what anyone says.  There will be a lot of rain, as a result of an unlucky pattern, not a torch.

Yeah I agree, a torch is a long string of consecutive above average days and in general for a month to be considered a torch I'd expect the average monthly temperature to be significantly above average.

The storm on the 2nd / 3rd was literally 50-100 miles from being a significant winter weather storm, had that boundary been able to make it just a little further SE who knows what we would have had, instead it was literally 33 and rain for 18 hours. That had nothing to do with our climo per se, the ridging off the east coast was just enough to halt the boundary. Re-run that same setup with a few minor changes a 100 times and I bet 75 its a high impact winter storm, maybe not all snow but big sleet / zr type storm.

You can't use P-Type as a means to call a month above average on temperature.

 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah I agree, a torch is a long string of consecutive above average days and in general for a month to be considered a torch I'd expect the average monthly temperature to be significantly above average.

The storm on the 2nd / 3rd was literally 50-100 miles from being a significant winter weather storm, had that boundary been able to make it just a little further SE who knows what we would have had, instead it was literally 33 and rain for 18 hours. That had nothing to do with our climo per se, the ridging off the east coast was just enough to halt the boundary. Re-run that same setup with a few minor changes a 100 times and I bet 75 its a high impact winter storm, maybe not all snow but big sleet / zr type storm.

You can't use P-Type as a means to call a month above average on temperature.

 

I guess that’s more my point. If you take every February that finished near normal on temps, this one was probably near or at the bottom as far as being a quality winter month.

[Ahoff]

22 minutes ago, TimB said:

Maybe we can have another top 5 wettest year after just a couple years break.

Two months in and you’re ready to call that?  

[Ahoff]

7 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah I agree, a torch is a long string of consecutive above average days and in general for a month to be considered a torch I'd expect the average monthly temperature to be significantly above average.

The storm on the 2nd / 3rd was literally 50-100 miles from being a significant winter weather storm, had that boundary been able to make it just a little further SE who knows what we would have had, instead it was literally 33 and rain for 18 hours. That had nothing to do with our climo per se, the ridging off the east coast was just enough to halt the boundary. Re-run that same setup with a few minor changes a 100 times and I bet 75 its a high impact winter storm, maybe not all snow but big sleet / zr type storm.

You can't use P-Type as a means to call a month above average on temperature.

 

Exactly, there’s too much over exaggeration when talking about this weather.

[Gordo74]

 

Nice Hole

[Rd9108]

12 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

 

Nice Hole

I think shift that 75 miles north and you have the solution. No block in place the warm air will race north.

[KPITSnow]

If we are going to not get snow I think I’d rather just torch. Yeah, in the end I’d rather have it cold and snowy but if the only option is rain and cold I’d rather it at least be consistently in the 40’s or 50’s.

 

This was a miserable February IMO.

[TimB]

33 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

If we are going to not get snow I think I’d rather just torch. Yeah, in the end I’d rather have it cold and snowy but if the only option is rain and cold I’d rather it at least be consistently in the 40’s or 50’s.

 

This was a miserable February IMO.

You’re in luck. In an almost comical fashion, next week, which was looking cold, is now looking warmer with temperatures popping back up close to 50 by midweek.

[Ahoff]

Lol at 40s being a torch in February when the current average high is in the 40s.

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Lol at 40s being a torch in February when the current average high is in the 40s.

Not a torch but it was a pretty lack luster month seeing as it rained basically anytime we received any significant precip.

[TimB]

NWS mentions the possibility of isolated thunderstorms today in their discussion. Might be the only game in town as far as interesting weather for the balance of February.

[north pgh]

Looking ahead maybe a few inches from a diving clipper on Sunday.

[KPITSnow]

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Not a torch but it was a pretty lack luster month seeing as it rained basically anytime we received any significant precip.

We might get close to 5 inches of qpf, and maybe only a few inches of snow, correct?

[KPITSnow]

5 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Lol at 40s being a torch in February when the current average high is in the 40s.

Now you accusing me of trolling, but I think it’s pretty obvious what he is saying. It isn’t a torch maybe but it was a pretty bad month for winter precip. 

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Not a torch but it was a pretty lack luster month seeing as it rained basically anytime we received any significant precip.

Bad pattern, not necessarily a torch.

[Ahoff]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Now you accusing me of trolling, but I think it’s pretty obvious what he is saying. It isn’t a torch maybe but it was a pretty bad month for winter precip. 

I didn't say it wasn't a bad month.  Just saying it's definitely not a torch.  There's too much over-exaggeration and hand wringing over things nobody can change.

[TimB]

19 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I didn't say it wasn't a bad month.  Just saying it's definitely not a torch.  There's too much over-exaggeration and hand wringing over things nobody can change.

You only get 3 months where you can reasonably expect to get any appreciable snowfall, and two of them were complete and total garbage this year. Despite a rockin’ January, our only hope to even get to normal snowfall for the season is a 1993 redux in March.