jwilson Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 I'm good with some down time from tracking after January. It was almost constant since New Year's. At this point I'm chasing the big one and that's about it. It's been at least six years since we've even sniffed the two-footer, same for places further east of us which seems like a semi-drought given recent climatology. I don't have high confidence of one occurring this year. We don't have the right kind of blocking setup. I would say next year looks slightly more promising with a Nino prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Mean for the Euro ensembles. The signal for a storm is there for the 18th. Long way to go and it could look like a cutter to the Dakotas by the same time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Ens means are looking awfully ridgy in the long range. Could we be headed for a third straight early spring and 5th out of the last 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: Ens means are looking awfully ridgy in the long range. Could we be headed for a third straight early spring and 5th out of the last 7? Seems they don’t have a clue. Every other day it’s cold then warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 9:07 AM, TimB said: Last year we had a top ten streak of not hitting 50 degrees (55 days). Today should be the 37th straight day this year and we have a very good shot at tacking on another week. I think we get there by mid-next week. This is going to age poorly. I’ll be shocked if PIT doesn’t hit 50 today. Already at 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The gfs is close enough to keep us interested. I still think it slides underneath and gives places like Philly some sneaky snow but it's something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Canadian sucking us back in. Time to get back to model tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, TimB said: This is going to age poorly. I’ll be shocked if PIT doesn’t hit 50 today. Already at 46. Probably an end to the snow cover stat too. 7 minutes ago, north pgh said: Canadian sucking us back in. Time to get back to model tracking It was technically better that last few storms with the GFS being to far SE at this range giving us more hope so there's that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lol This shot has a thin weenie band that gets north of the city 12” all told - but the frames before this have good widespread snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: This shot has a thin weenie band that gets north of the city 12” all told - but the frames before this have good widespread snows Don't bring up a foot, just don't, lol! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Don't bring up a foot, just don't, lol! Yeah - it’s not going to snow a foot Sunday. Just relaying the imagination of the Canadians at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Hit 49.3 here and now starting to drop a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 52.5F here and sun is still scorching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Euro is trending toward one of our famous February heatwaves for the second half of next week. Verbatim it’s temps in the 60s and dewpoints pushing 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 social media sent me. They are saying we are getting a foot of snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB said: Euro is trending toward one of our famous February heatwaves for the second half of next week. Verbatim it’s temps in the 60s and dewpoints pushing 60. sounds like I'm going golfing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 59 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: social media sent me. They are saying we are getting a foot of snow this weekend I'd be fine with a few inches and not being teased by the models to think there will be a massive hit only to have it pull back the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 hours ago, TimB said: Euro is trending toward one of our famous February heatwaves for the second half of next week. Verbatim it’s temps in the 60s and dewpoints pushing 60. Honestly, if winter is over I hope we torch in the 50s / 60s / 70s til May. No need to be strung along with an almost good enough pattern. No denying we had a good stretch. Hearing Enso is leaning towards a Nino next winter. If we can buck typical late Nina winter climo and keep tracking cold and snow Im all for it. But it looks like tropical forcing is heading into warm phases, PV coupling with the troposphere so cold will get locked up. Could definitely see some much above average temps if that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I’m fine honestly if it’s warm here on out. I’d say we had a great January in terms of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 12 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Honestly, if winter is over I hope we torch in the 50s / 60s / 70s til May. No need to be strung along with an almost good enough pattern. No denying we had a good stretch. Hearing Enso is leaning towards a Nino next winter. If we can buck typical late Nina winter climo and keep tracking cold and snow Im all for it. But it looks like tropical forcing is heading into warm phases, PV coupling with the troposphere so cold will get locked up. Could definitely see some much above average temps if that plays out. To an extent I agree. What looked like a promising stretch in February now looks like a shutout pattern. It’s more the idea that lately, spring here seems to come before the end of February more often than it doesn’t. The February heatwave of 2017 comes to mind, but I’d say even last year we were into spring starting the last week of February, and that was in a good February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I’m not sure why everyone is ready to just go to spring. When we get to March, fine because with sun angle you have to get a real monster for a good storm, and 2-4 events just kind of suck and don’t even really accumulate on roads. I do not want a February torch though as it is usually our last best chance at storms, and given that just a few days ago the GFS was signaling a pattern with a bunch of potential and now it looks like a crap sandwich and that winter is basically over outside a March Hail Mary…and if it ends like this it will go down as a really awful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 59 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I’m not sure why everyone is ready to just go to spring. When we get to March, fine because with sun angle you have to get a real monster for a good storm, and 2-4 events just kind of suck and don’t even really accumulate on roads. I do not want a February torch though as it is usually our last best chance at storms, and given that just a few days ago the GFS was signaling a pattern with a bunch of potential and now it looks like a crap sandwich and that winter is basically over outside a March Hail Mary…and if it ends like this it will go down as a really awful winter. Even good winters end like this these days. Look at last year. Also, it’s too late to salvage February. The end of the month is already almost in GFS/GEFS range without many signs of the torch letting up significantly after it arrives next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, TimB said: To an extent I agree. What looked like a promising stretch in February now looks like a shutout pattern. It’s more the idea that lately, spring here seems to come before the end of February more often than it doesn’t. The February heatwave of 2017 comes to mind, but I’d say even last year we were into spring starting the last week of February, and that was in a good February. But winter usually returns in March to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: But winter usually returns in March to an extent. 2018 was like that for sure. Then 2020 and 2021 it made a return in April and May when it really wasn’t worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 These long term models have been bad lately. I wouldn't be surprised if something pops up in the 10 day range at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Seems like the consensus is that any sustained cold and winter pattern is breaking down. Doesn't mean we can't get a temporary breakdown for a few days and get a decent storm.Also the models are all over the place for long range anyway so it's hard to even trust them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I hate to be the bearer of bad news but this doesn't bode well for us in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Meh, it was a fun Jan/early feb. Prove the groundhog wrong and let’s pop spring on Presidents’ Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 As soon as the groundhog saw his shadow, we knew it had to be over, right? I'm fine with an early spring. January exceeded my expectations to some degree, and I never really expected some blockbuster, wall-to-wall winter. March is always a wildcard, too. You never know what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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