Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[Rd9108]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The other thing I’ll add regarding that stat is we also had a 20+ day streak of continuous 3” snowpack last year, and it looks like the only other time this has happened in consecutive years was 1977-1979, which of course are pretty much the gold standard for pack retention in our area. 
 

Also, even more mood flakes today after the sunny start. Regardless of what happens from here on out, this will not be a winterless winter by any measure.

No not at all. I'd say it's been a solid C+ maybe B- so far. 

[Burghblizz]

Beautiful morning. Still snowing (passing snow shower) but with the sun out. So fresh snow is shining as is the ice on the trees. Looks like white lights on them since water was frozen in the shape of tear drops 

[Ahoff]

Radar is filling with snow in the area.  Very interesting.

[Burghblizz]

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Radar is filling with snow in the area.  Very interesting.

You see that here and around Charleston WV from time to time. I think it’s more that very light snow showers aren’t getting picked up until they get close to those radar sites. I don’t think they just happen to be flaring up in those spots 

[Rd9108]

Euro has a signal for a big dog it just doesn't bomb out big time until it hits the coast.

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro has a signal for a big dog it just doesn't bomb out big time until it hits the coast.

Kuchera on that would be through the roof, most of that falls with temps in the low 20s falling through the teens.

CMC supports the idea of a storm in that range but it never really comes together for us. GFS is bone dry for almost the entirety of its run. Safe to say there’s some model spread once we get to the end of next week?

[Burghblizz]

13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro has a signal for a big dog it just doesn't bomb out big time until it hits the coast.

If we have to watch ppl get 40 to get 20”….that’s OK. Sign me up.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Kuchera on that would be through the roof, most of that falls with temps in the low 20s falling through the teens.

CMC supports the idea of a storm in that range but it never really comes together for us. GFS is bone dry for almost the entirety of its run. Safe to say there’s some model spread once we get to the end of next week?

Starting next weekend the pattern looks conducive for the next storm with the ridge in the west amping up. I'd think we start to see storms showing on the operational as we close in like the Euro. Of course where and when are totally up in the air.

Prior to that looks like a clipper type system Thursday - Friday time.

 

[Rd9108]

19 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

If we have to watch ppl get 40 to get 20”….that’s OK. Sign me up.

Would totally be alright with this 

[Ahoff]

40 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

If we have to watch ppl get 40 to get 20”….that’s OK. Sign me up.

Please, please, but way too far to even think about yet.

[TimB]

18z GFS has a storm in that D9 timeframe. It’s not where we want it or as big, but it’s on the map.

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

18z GFS has a storm in that D9 timeframe. It’s not where we want it or as big, but it’s on the map.

Yep and usually the big ones are modeled atleast a week out. We track

[CoraopolisWx]

Just keep that 850 low south of us as it strengthens, and the rest we leave to chance.

[Ahoff]

Already back below normal for the month by .1 degree.  Those three warm days were easy to erase.

[TimB]

51 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Already back below normal for the month by .1 degree.  Those three warm days were easy to erase.

Yep. Week ahead looks boring with some below normal and some slightly above normal days sprinkled in. If I had to bet, we’ll be running a slight negative departure at the halfway point of February.

[Gordo74]

On 2/5/2022 at 11:22 AM, Rd9108 said:

No not at all. I'd say it's been a solid C+ maybe B- so far. 

Given we're near yearly top 10 territory of really decent snowpack with that stat, that alone puts it at a B+ floor for me. One big wallop of 8"+ would push it to A in my book.

[TimB]

It’s hard. On the one hand, we’re just short of normal snowfall to date (-0.8” through yesterday). On the other hand, we’ve had snow on the ground for three weeks straight, but those are the only days this winter that more than 2” has been on the ground. I tend to agree with the C+/B- assessment to date. It hasn’t been horrible, but it hasn’t been incredible. I would give December an F- and January/the first few days of February an A.

[Rd9108]

38 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Given we're near yearly top 10 territory of really decent snowpack with that stat, that alone puts it at a B+ floor for me. One big wallop of 8"+ would push it to A in my book.

Ehh last year was an A. This year is still in C+ territory unless we get some more snows. December was winterless which brings it down. I'd rather have a snowy December/January/ February than a late winter.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

26 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Ehh last year was an A. This year is still in C+ territory unless we get some more snows. December was winterless which brings it down. I'd rather have a snowy December/January/ February than a late winter.

Yeah, going to really have to score a big win and maybe do some bonus work to bring the GPA up after totally failing December. If winter ended today I'd agree with the C+. Snow pack and cold stretch and all the days with snow falling all day with snow on snow was really enjoyable. Plus we scored on the front end of it. Still snow on the ground from the MLK storm. Pretty steady tracking of threats through the period too.

The post tracking blues are in full effect for me. The clippers at the end of the week aren't looking as good, and some signs the western ridge reload may not last. We've been kicking the can on any major warmup and eventually it has to happen.

This morning was beautiful though with the snow sparkling in the bright sunlight and bitter cold. 

[KPITSnow]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

It’s hard. On the one hand, we’re just short of normal snowfall to date (-0.8” through yesterday). On the other hand, we’ve had snow on the ground for three weeks straight, but those are the only days this winter that more than 2” has been on the ground. I tend to agree with the C+/B- assessment to date. It hasn’t been horrible, but it hasn’t been incredible. I would give December an F- and January/the first few days of February an A.

In perspective I'd give it a C. Disregarding that MLK did underperform a bit, no matter what anyone wants to say, it was a decent storm. December was an F, and January an A so it evens out.

[Ahoff]

What happened to the 20" on the 15th, lol.

[Gordo74]

18 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Ehh last year was an A. This year is still in C+ territory unless we get some more snows. December was winterless which brings it down. I'd rather have a snowy December/January/ February than a late winter.

Fair, which we had last year. But on the flip side, winter was done mid Feb last year aside from a one-off.
 

No denying December was a big let down, but I suppose Jan/early Feb has made up for that for me. 

[TimB]

18 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

The post tracking blues are in full effect for me. The clippers at the end of the week aren't looking as good, and some signs the western ridge reload may not last. We've been kicking the can on any major warmup and eventually it has to happen.

Yes indeed, definitely feels like our days of checking every run of every model are on hiatus for now, and we’re due for a warmup. That’s where I’m going to compare this winter to last winter. Last year we had a top ten streak of not hitting 50 degrees (55 days). Today should be the 37th straight day this year and we have a very good shot at tacking on another week. I think we get there by mid-next week.

[PghPirates27]

Not much going on now but I went back to the 2018-2019 thread and saw we had two downgrades from WSW to WWA. That’s crazy. I’m actually in a bad mood now lol. 

One of the forecasts from the nws actually said this and it is making my blood boil because I know how that turned out. 

Its not an exaggeration to state that a difference of 40 or 50
miles will be the difference between 1 to 2 inches of snow and 8
to 12 inches of snow.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Not much going on now but I went back to the 2018-2019 thread and saw we had two downgrades from WSW to WWA. That’s crazy. I’m actually in a bad mood now lol. 

One of the forecasts from the nws actually said this and it is making my blood boil because I know how that turned out. 

Its not an exaggeration to state that a difference of 40 or 50
miles will be the difference between 1 to 2 inches of snow and 8
to 12 inches of snow.

I assume this is from 1/19/19, though applicable to at least one storm nearly every year.

[PghPirates27]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I assume this is from 1/19/19, though applicable to at least one storm nearly every year.

Yep. Also had one in March too.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Yep. Also had one in March too.

The good news is that neither of our warnings this year were downgraded to advisories and both met warning criteria for snow or ice in most locations outside of KPITSnow’s backyard.

[Rd9108]

9 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I assume this is from 1/19/19, though applicable to at least one storm nearly every year.

Yeah I mean that's the problem with our area such little changes make huge shifts to the forecast. I think the bigger problem is how slow they are to adjust the totals. Often times we see the model runs first and we know before the public that we aren't gonna get 8-12.

[jwilson]

I have a friend that's a meteorologist in a southern market and did his thesis on public communication related to weather broadcasting and forecasting, etc.  It's pretty interesting how he approaches his forecasts, and I think it's something a lot of on-air mets (among others) miss.  There's not enough discussion about the nuance of storms, really.  And I realize the "general public" is overall kind of dumb so you can't wade too far into the minutiae, but I think a lot of mets skip over the grey-area talking points and focus too much on black-and-white numbers.

This does vary by forecaster, however.  We even see the local NWS has good discussions and bad ones.  I'm guessing there are not enough college-level courses on communication in this context, and some people are better communicators than others, naturally.  Regardless of how you felt about the last couple storms, there were obvious issues that some mets didn't really touch on or discuss enough.

I see some of the same things here on the board.  I wish we would ban Kuchera snowfall maps because those things fail to verify 99% of the time.  It only serves to create unrealistic expectations.  Actual precip forecasting requires multi-level and layer analysis.  Same with attempting to discern ratios.

(I'm being mostly facetious here with that Kuchera point, but I do think those maps should be largely ignored.)

[KPITSnow]

5 hours ago, TimB84 said:

The good news is that neither of our warnings this year were downgraded to advisories and both met warning criteria for snow or ice in most locations outside of KPITSnow’s backyard.

Actually, most areas in AGC did not meet warning criteria. 7 inches was pretty standard in much of the county.

https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/1483177652714237954/photo/1

I don't know why you keep bringing it up when you are wrong.