TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Point & click for the airport has temps hovering around 30 all day. Point & click for me has a “high of 39” and this entertaining hourly forecast that says it should currently be 32 with a wind chill of 35 and a dewpoint of 37? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 PWS is at 34.3 and has STEADILY been dropping since about 6 am. Definitely ahead of schedule I would say. Could daylight bring a little flux in the temps? I know that it is winter, but just trying to think of reasons why we wouldn’t be seeing zr area wide by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 HRRR suggests temps bounce around in the 36-38 range all day, but would suspect it’s too warm because the airport is still supposedly above freezing as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, TimB84 said: HRRR suggests temps bounce around in the 36-38 range all day, but would suspect it’s too warm because the airport is still supposedly above freezing as modeled. So are the models warmer than the observations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: So are the models warmer than the observations? Very much so. HRRR at least is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: So are the models warmer than the observations? AGC was at 35 at 8am and PIT was at 32. The HRRR had a temp of 37 in Pittsburgh for 8am so 2 degrees warmer than AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: Very much so. I guess this will come down to nowcasting and seeing where that mix line is throughout the day. I took off tonight, no desire to drive in the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 AGC has gone from 39 to 34 in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: AGC has gone from 39 to 34 in an hour. Thats a pretty significant drop, so again colder but the question is does the front continue pushing through or get hung up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I guess this will come down to nowcasting and seeing where that mix line is throughout the day. I took off tonight, no desire to drive in the ice and snow. Agree. Let's throw the models out the window and start nowcasting. How about some observations. I was just out and my temp is down to 33.2. Light rain is getting heavier and you can feel the north wind cold. I imagine it will be freezing here before lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 33.1° here. Down from 34.2 an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 753 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An advancing front will stall southeast of Pittsburgh into Friday and result in a prolonged period of rain, wintry mix, and snow across the region. Is this new info? Now seems like NWS thinks the front stalls on the other side of the city. This would give us below freezing temps for much of the area yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I really think the temps are going to hold around freezing until late this afternoon. I think there may be some icing today from west to east but the serious stuff will be after dark. Still holding at 33.2. Heading out for an hour or so. Let's try and get some observations. I would like to see what is going on in our western suburbs where the cold is winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: 33.1° here. Down from 34.2 an hour ago. This part to me is even more fun than the tracking, checking obs / now casting. We don't have a lot of experience with this type of situation so it's going to be really interesting to see if models nailed the front getting hung up, or if they are not able to handle the low level cold air bleeding underneath. Typically on the other side of the apps low level cold is underdone and we still have snow pack in most of the area too. So we have that going for a possible quicker temperature drop. On the other hand, I'm not entirely sure temperatures don't rise a few degrees while we are under the influence of the weak but not completely inconsequential warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 753 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An advancing front will stall southeast of Pittsburgh into Friday and result in a prolonged period of rain, wintry mix, and snow across the region. Is this new info? Now seems like NWS thinks the front stalls on the other side of the city. This would give us below freezing temps for much of the area yes? Yeah that’s way different than what the HRRR is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, north pgh said: I really think the temps are going to hold around freezing until late this afternoon. I think there may be some icing today from west to east but the serious stuff will be after dark. Still holding at 33.2. Heading out for an hour or so. Let's try and get some observations. I would like to see what is going on in our western suburbs where the cold is winning out. We must be in the same neighborhood or you’re using my PWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Temp dropped to 31.3 about 30 minutes ago, and now climbed to 31.6 and holding steady. No precipitation at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Holding steady at 33.1° for the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Can any confirm what is happening in the areas that are being identified as ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, north pgh said: I really think the temps are going to hold around freezing until late this afternoon. I think there may be some icing today from west to east but the serious stuff will be after dark. Still holding at 33.2. Heading out for an hour or so. Let's try and get some observations. I would like to see what is going on in our western suburbs where the cold is winning out. Lull in whatever was falling here in Robinson. No trouble with icing yet. Temp says 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I’m in Moon. It’s rain. Roads are wet. I’m on the edge of Beaver County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Holding steady at 33.1° for the last 30 minutes. Check the soundings on the 12z 3K NAM, I used the actual city as my point of reference and it has surface temperature a 33 degrees from 9am until about 9pm. I'd say let that be your point of reference, if you drop to 32 or colder before that 9pm then maybe we are getting colder faster. Crazy the front is stuck for 12 hours, then once it passes us seems to have no issue blowing off the coast, really a near miss here if it plays out like that. And when I say near miss I mean from a very impactful ice event. I guess we can prove my theory after the fact if counties just to the west of the Allegheny have severe icing but its more or less nuisance especially from the city east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Here in Hopewell my sidewalks and driveway are just wet, but there's ice on some wooden and steel objects in the yard. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Can any confirm what is happening in the areas that are being identified as ZR? Same as the other report from Beaver County. Sidewalk and driveway are just wet, but there is a very light glaze now accreting on elevated surfaces (tree branches, pine needles, etc.). I think our typical freezing rain setup is coming out of a deep freeze, where the rain arrives prior to temperatures warming above freezing. In this case, temperatures were in the 40s yesterday so road surfaces seem to be above freezing still. Probably would take a few more hours of below freezing temperatures to get any icing on paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, TheClimateChanger said: Same as the other report from Beaver County. Sidewalk and driveway are just wet, but there is a very light glaze now accreting on elevated surfaces (tree branches, pine needles, etc.). I think our typical freezing rain setup is coming out of a deep freeze, where the rain arrives prior to temperatures warming above freezing. In this case, temperatures were in the 40s yesterday so road surfaces seem to be above freezing still. Probably would take a few more hours of below freezing temperatures to get any icing on paved surfaces. Completely agree with this. I wonder if that minimizes the impact until dark for most roads even in the spots where it is below freezing all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12k NAM has 1 inch of fzr and the 3k has like .25. Sheesh it's definitely nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 12k NAM has 1 inch of fzr and the 3k has like .25. Sheesh it's definitely nowcasting. Isn't that a reversal from what it had been showing? Wasn't 3K the colder one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Well 1” of zr qpf doesn’t mean 1” accretion, correct? I don’t subscribe to Pivotal premium but I know there are maps for more realistic accretion. What % of zr qpf usually “sticks”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 59 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Temp dropped to 31.3 about 30 minutes ago, and now climbed to 31.6 and holding steady. No precipitation at the moment. 1 hour later, still 31.6 hasn't budged at all. Not sure if that's good or bad. Light rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 35 minutes ago, dj3 said: I wonder if that minimizes the impact until dark for most roads even in the spots where it is below freezing all day. Even minimal insolation can make a difference on road surfaces. I was going north on 79 one overcast day, temp below freezing, with no ice on the road. Suddenly a southbound car spun out into the median, after passing beneath an overpass. As soon as I passed under the same overpass I figured out why--the road was iced over because it was in the shade of the bridge... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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