Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: Probably not. How many times here have we been 5 degrees only to be 45 and rain a day later? It also has apparently been colder and snowy than expected in the south. Could mean the storm is colder aloft too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 40 and a chance of rain on Wednesday. A garden variety 6-8” event will be almost gone in areas that get any sunshine at all in 3 days. I don't think so. It's one day above freezing, and the rain is supposed transition to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Are you buying the mixing issues on the HRRR? Nope. The soundings on the HRRR look like all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The HRRR each run is trying harder and harder to fill in the dry slot and move it a bit further east. As always seems to be the case, Pittsburgh is going to be a battleground. Wouldn't be shocked if someone in the SE portion of the county sees 8-10 while the NW corner sees 14-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Liking the trends on the HRRR 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 NWS upped the expect total again to 11.7”. Airport would be over a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15z barely dry slots. If this run pans out I think the rates will drop off significantly, for a short time, but then at hr 18 it is thumping with 8+ already on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 According to the Canadian between midnight and 4:00 am we will see a good amount of this. I probably won’t be able to sleep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: According to the Canadian between midnight and 4:00 am we will see a good amount of this. I probably won’t be able to sleep Lordy... no dry slot there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Talk from other websites and Mets on Twitter that upper air patterns are showing that the storm could move more easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Radar shows snow knocking on the WV/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Not that this won’t be the March super storm of 1993 but I do remember severe weather all over Florida before the storm came up the coast. There have been tornadoes in Florida this morning. Just food for thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I think 6-12" is a fine call for now. There's a slight chance it overperforms locally, but this isn't the most congealed looking precip shield currently and thus accounting for potential threats to the maximum potential. On a "bust scale" of 1 to 10, I'd probably put this at a 7. It isn't the cleanest looking setup. However, in our relatively snow-starved climate for big ones, we take a double-digit potential any day even if it comes with caveats. Hope for the best as we watch it roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, north pgh said: Not that this won’t be the March super storm of 1993 but I do remember severe weather all over Florida before the storm came up the coast. There have been tornadoes in Florida this morning. Just food for thought This is kind of like 93 lite to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, jwilson said: I think 6-12" is a fine call for now. There's a slight chance it overperforms locally, but this isn't the most congealed looking precip shield currently and thus accounting for potential threats to the maximum potential. On a "bust scale" of 1 to 10, I'd probably put this at a 7. It isn't the cleanest looking setup. However, in our relatively snow-starved climate for big ones, we take a double-digit potential any day even if it comes with caveats. Hope for the best as we watch it roll in. Buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: This is kind of like 93 lite to be honest. If it brings half the total of '93, we'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, southpark said: I think things trend better for us. These model runs seem to want to bring it a little further east. That’s my take, GFS / GEM both looked to have ticked a little bit east granted their usefulness is less this close in but if we see an agreement that we get a slightly east track / faster transfer we might be in business. It’s almost time to start watching the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: This is kind of like 93 lite to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 hi rez Canadian has us at 12/13ish. Let's hope for the best and enjoy what falls. This should be a fun storm for us. May not be historic but this is why we are on these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: This is kind of like 93 lite to be honest. It has some similarities for sure, but nowhere near the strength. I still like jwilisons analogy as a clipper going as March 93 for Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Fast start is key. Some guidance show 30-35 dgz returns with the initial wave this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Fast start is key. Some guidance show 30-35 dgz returns with the initial wave this evening. Never will forget 2/5/2010 and the initial slug moving in with 1-2 inch per hour rates and yellows popping up all over the radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 It has some similarities for sure, but nowhere near the strength. I still like jwilisons analogy as a clipper going as March 93 for Halloween.That 93 storm was a storm that we may never see again. That storm was like a wintertime hurricane. We were under a very rare blizzard warning.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The four to 7 day chances from WPC there are multiple greens right near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Never will forget 2/5/2010 and the initial slug moving in with 1-2 inch per hour rates and yellows popping up all over the radar. I was driving home from st Vincent that evening. Heaviest rates I’ve personally ever seen. I remember getting home and checking the nam on the old ncep maps and we were in the light blue (0.75-1.00) for 6 hour precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Looks like another threat next weekend, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, dj3 said: I was driving home from st Vincent that evening. Heaviest rates I’ve personally ever seen. I remember getting home and checking the nam on the old ncep maps and we were in the light blue (0.75-1.00) for 6 hour precip. Was such a fine snow too. Just piled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hey let’s not forget as the snow is tapering to 1-3 inches by lunch time tomorrow wind are going to gust to 30 mph. Lots of blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, SteelCity87 said: Was such a fine snow too. Just piled up. Yes and such a long duration event. I was out shoveling in the morning and it was still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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