Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 snow still falling on us at this point on the 12z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 There are some really good trends. I am hoping the euro loses the extended dry slot as it and the NAM have been pretty consistent now with it for a bit. Most mets are saying the mixing issues are likely way overdone...so the dryslot I think is the bigger concern. Also, I would LOVE to get some wind. Not blizzard level, but 20-30MPH gusts with inch per hour rates or higher will be pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: GFS gas ALOT of precip I'm wondering if this is counting the Weds potential storm too, hence the elevated totals out east (and valid through Thurs in upper left). I very well could be reading it wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, Ahoff said: is it even realistic to see that much mixed precip and ice? Seems like an uncommonly high amount over a large area. I believe that purple is high rates of snow, not the sleet color. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, meatwad said: Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We can see the problem quite evident on the NAM (among other high-res models): Off to the northeast (circled in yellow) is the retreating high pressure. It's also not particularly strong. The high pressure I've added (to the northwest) is what we really would prefer to see in this situation, or at least due north in southern Quebec. Unfortunately, that doesn't exist. It would act to reinforce the cold air and provide some resistance to counter warm ocean flow in the mid levels. It could also limit the latitude gains by the low pressure(s). The NAM is definitely the strongest with this easterly fetch feature, but the RGEM is close there, too. The other problem is the dryslot, and if the precip cuts off, that would allow for more warm air to seep into the equation. Now I can't say for sure if the NAM is right on this, and I'm not an expert so I defer to those that are. However, I'm personally hesitant when I see these features creeping up on the short-term. This storm definitely has a high bust potential for someone, while for someone else it might over-deliver. The question simply becomes who is left with each of those outcomes. We've also seen, when there's little resistance upslope, captured lows get pulled further to the north than expected. Not that it's guaranteed here, but another possible observation. It really will come down to nowcasting. No model is going to have this exactly right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Lots of folks on the NY thread are saying that the UKMET makes zero sense. It is dropping 1-1.5 QPF everywhere here to WNY but the snow maps are all showing totals that don't come anywhere near matching the QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, jwilson said: We can see the problem quite evident on the NAM (among other high-res models): Off to the northeast (circled in yellow) is the retreating high pressure. It's also not particularly strong. The high pressure I've added (to the northwest) is what we really would prefer to see in this situation, or at least due north in southern Quebec. Unfortunately, that doesn't exist. It would act to reinforce the cold air and provide some resistance to counter warm ocean flow in the mid levels. It could also limit the latitude gains by the low pressure(s). The NAM is definitely the strongest with this easterly fetch feature, but the RGEM is close there, too. The other problem is the dryslot, and if the precip cuts off, that would allow for more warm air to seep into the equation. Now I can't say for sure if the NAM is right on this, and I'm not an expert so I defer to those that are. However, I'm personally hesitant when I see these features creeping up on the short-term. This storm definitely has a high bust potential for someone, while for someone else it might over-deliver. The question simply becomes who is left with each of those outcomes. We've also seen, when there's little resistance upslope, captured lows get pulled further to the north than expected. Not that it's guaranteed here, but another possible observation. It really will come down to nowcasting. No model is going to have this exactly right. Thank you for explaining my concerns in far more detail than I ever could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1233 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-160145- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke- Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-Eastern Preston- Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- Including the cities of Sharon, Parsons, Canonsburg, Thomas, New Kensington, Punxsutawney, Caldwell, Pittsburgh Metro Area, New Martinsville, Greensburg, Hendricks, Steubenville, Ligonier, Indiana, Butler, Beaver Falls, Aliquippa, Bruceton Mills, Coshocton, Terra Alta, Champion, Hermitage, Coopers Rock, Grove City, Murrysville, Weirton, St. Clairsville, Rowlesburg, Tionesta, Carrollton, Kittanning, Woodsfield, Moundsville, Malvern, Ford City, Morgantown, Ohiopyle, Ambridge, Kingwood, Hazelton, Cadiz, Oil City, Clarion, Uniontown, Latrobe, Ellwood City, Monessen, Columbiana, Canaan Valley, East Liverpool, Davis, Monaca, Wheeling, Wellsburg, Dover, New Castle, Lower Burrell, Cambridge, Saint George, Donegal, Zanesville, New Philadelphia, Washington, Waynesburg, Fairmont, Martins Ferry, Salem, Brookville, Follansbee, and Franklin 1233 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 11 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Dangerous conditions are expected along Interstate 80 for the next several hours. Remember, `Pull Aside, Stay Alive`. && $$ JL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Everything looks as good as can be expected based on the concerns (dryslot / mid level warmth) which won't be known until game time. It would be nice to see those become less pronounced on short term models as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mailman said: Looks like it lessens the mixing or dry slot issues to the east, that could be good. However it looks like southwest would have more issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Looks like it lessens the mixing or dry slot issues to the east, that could be good. However it looks like southwest would have more issues. Upped the exact total to 9" from 8.2". Good news. 24 hours until the warning is in effect. We're getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Euro came back to life for us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mailman said: Thats a good shift. A bump 50 miles SE and we get destroyed. I feel if we can avoid the dry slot that 12-18 really is on the table for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Thats a good shift. A bump 50 miles SE and we get destroyed. Destroyed in a good way, I assume you mean, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Dry slot on the Euro still sort of there (an area of light snow, but it is generally filled in). Didn't look like any mixing, though the 6 hour increments are too long, in my opinion. Much better looking for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Thats a good shift. A bump 50 miles SE and we get destroyed. I feel if we can avoid the dry slot that 12-18 really is on the table for us.Look at that 31.5 bullseye in Erie . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Temp profile looks good here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Look at that 31.5 bullseye in Erie . Yep lol. Though I would imagine there is a good deal of lake enhancement with that. Like I said though 12-18 IMO is a possibility given that 50 minutes NW that is what the euro is spitting out. The thing is that we still dry slot or come close to it, but the only model showing the really pronounced slot is the NAM so that is encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Look at that 31.5 bullseye in Erie . These are the only times I wish I still lived up there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, meatwad said: Razors edge on that first frame, but that's all we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, southpark said: These are the only times I wish I still lived up there lol. HAHAHAHAHA. The NY thread was talking about how the only reason to live on the tughill is snow...everything else is awful. I'd imagine Erie is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If we can avoid the frozen snow cone…and I think most will to a large degree…they really might want to consider adding “bowing and drifting” to the forecast Monday. Could be 30 MPH winds with snow showers and a lot of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 So I’m really wondering how much snow we’re gonna get here at seven springs. There’s always a few more inches than the forecasts. I’m wondering we we could go to 1-2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ecanem said: So I’m really wondering how much snow we’re gonna get here at seven springs. There’s always a few more inches than the forecasts. I’m wondering we we could go to 1-2 feet If Pittsburgh's flirting with a foot, 7 Springs should get there, again barring any dry slotting or mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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