Ahoff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Guys, let’s pray the models hold tonight. If they do, I think we’re in a decent spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM looks good. 8” at end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: NAM looks good. 8” at end of run. That’s with Ptype issues too…which is just suck a weird look given the low placement. It is over an inch of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: Is RGEM a good model? Not at the end of its envelope. Better to wait, like the NAM, until it's in a more usable range (24-48 hours). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 My takeaway from the NAM is juicier. Puts some big totals north and west of the city, and somehow has a little bullseye of .50 freezing rain over my house (but not north, south, east or west) Not sure if that’s a function of it struggling at long range, or picking up on something. My guess is that there some brief warming from the inland low, and the totals differ based on the how much QPF there is during that period. So it looks wonky. I hope we have a nice fat swath of straight snow by tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: My takeaway from the NAM is juicier. Puts some big totals north and west of the city, and somehow has a little bullseye of .50 freezing rain over my house (but not north, south, east or west) Not sure if that’s a function of it struggling at long range, or picking up on something. I hope we have a nice fat swath of straight snow by tommorow. Yep, gives us like 8 inches of snow and a bunch of ice. That would be fairly awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Don't look at the RGEM if you like your underwear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs through 12z Sunday isn’t looking much different than 18z. The 500mb dips a little more into GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Don't look at the RGEM if you like your underwear Gfs is very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: My takeaway from the NAM is juicier. Puts some big totals north and west of the city, and somehow has a little bullseye of .50 freezing rain over my house (but not north, south, east or west) Not sure if that’s a function of it struggling at long range, or picking up on something. My guess is that there some brief warming from the inland low, and the totals differ based on the how much QPF there is during that period. So it looks wonky. I hope we have a nice fat swath of straight snow by tommorow. I'm not buying that mixed precip yet. I get that the mid level low will be transfering and depending on how long that takes some warm air will be moving in at the 850 level. That being said, the surface will be at 22°F at the time the NAM shows 33° at the 850. Thats a crazy and ridiculous gradient. I'm not saying that is cannot happen, it certainly has, but that is pretty rare to see that kind of disparity. At least im hoping it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS is like a foot here with slightly higher amount in the next county over. No major changes really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Canadian looks nearly identical to 12z through hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 CMC 9-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: CMC 9-12. nearly as good as it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: nearly as good as it gets Still time for a little eastward shift too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Still time for a little eastward shift too. I know you say this. But storms always seem to shift east at the last minute. At least we are in that zone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ecanem said: I know you say this. But storms always seem to shift east at the last minute. At least we are in that zone now. I'm also totally basing this off of wishcasting and the fact that every meteorologist on the planet still has the main axis of precip east of the city. The CMC run has me hyped right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: I'm also totally basing this off of wishcasting and the fact that every meteorologist on the planet still has the main axis of precip east of the city. The CMC run has me hyped right now though. I’ve seen some still question a coastal track. That seems so dead to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I’ve seen some still question a coastal track. That seems so dead to me at this point. Agree. I don’t think there is anyway that this runs the coast. It definitely an inland storm. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 409 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-141900- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke- Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-Eastern Preston- Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- Including the cities of Sharon, Parsons, Canonsburg, Thomas, New Kensington, Punxsutawney, Caldwell, Pittsburgh Metro Area, New Martinsville, Greensburg, Hendricks, Steubenville, Ligonier, Indiana, Butler, Beaver Falls, Aliquippa, Bruceton Mills, Coshocton, Terra Alta, Champion, Hermitage, Coopers Rock, Grove City, Murrysville, Weirton, St. Clairsville, Rowlesburg, Tionesta, Carrollton, Kittanning, Woodsfield, Moundsville, Malvern, Ford City, Morgantown, Ohiopyle, Ambridge, Kingwood, Hazelton, Cadiz, Oil City, Clarion, Uniontown, Latrobe, Ellwood City, Monessen, Columbiana, Canaan Valley, East Liverpool, Davis, Monaca, Wheeling, Wellsburg, Dover, New Castle, Lower Burrell, Cambridge, Saint George, Donegal, Zanesville, New Philadelphia, Washington, Waynesburg, Fairmont, Martins Ferry, Salem, Brookville, Follansbee, and Franklin 409 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Curious which model they're basing that off of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Curious which model they're basing that off of Probably a blend after the euro came in last night. Which wasn’t a particularly stellar run for us. The ho hum 5-6 “ over AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said: Curious which model they're basing that off of Probably a blend as it’s their actual forecast. That heavier band N/NW has been consistently showing up as as some of mixing/slotting. Just depends on where that all lands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said: Curious which model they're basing that off of I'm sure its based of of multiple models / ensembles that they weight based on experience and what previous analogs to similar storms look like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z NAM and gfs look great and rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hopefully the Euro is overestimating the dual low idea. Really wants to muddy up the whole storm. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z Euro still gives 8" at PIT, so starting to converge higher. This guy is giving 11-16" https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-guess-snow-map-for-jan-16-17-tenn-valley-east-coast-winter-storm-d31a02503f1b 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 yep 6z euro is better but still stuck between two 12inch bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 52 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 6z NAM and gfs look great and rgem Yes that heavier band lines up on the western side of the area. Still seeing some mixing work in right now. Still not ready to buy it, but more models are starting to show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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