KPITSnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I guess this is our payback for our first big storm and great December last year. That has been holding me over a bit at least. That said there haven’t even been many things to track, though I almost prefer that to the storms that we get 24-48 hours out, show 6-10 inches, then we either rain or get slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I think the new period to watch is from the 16th to the 23rd. The PNA has relaxed and we have a possible +spike incoming around that time period. I wasn't sure if a true pattern change would happen but it's clearly in process. If January ends up cold over the latter half, it might offer multiple chances to overcome our current deficit. The question would be whether the warmth reloads in February or if a weakening Nina means we don't get shut out totally. We might also be trending toward another -NAO and a -AO. Again, still somewhat dependent on long-term solutions that aren't always predictable, but there are good odds that a -NAO in December means the same block returns later in winter. Even if we were to get everything in one go, we do need some blocking to slow down this flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like nws is calling for 1-2. Atleast it will fall mostly during daylight hours. The good news as Wilson mentioned is the pattern seems to be changing to something more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Looks like nws is calling for 1-2. Atleast it will fall mostly during daylight hours. The good news as Wilson mentioned is the pattern seems to be changing to something more favorable. Looks like it's falling at night. Just saw about 7 pm- early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like it's falling at night. Just saw about 7 pm- early morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NWS upped the total from 1.2” to 1.7” and the high end from 2”-3” to 3-4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I’m still good with 1 inch NW county to 3 inches southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Wind is absolutely brutal here tonight!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Alright, hear me out. I feel like this storm has a decent chance of over performing. Since last night, the models have moved a little further to the NW with the precip shield. This is also inline with the rapid models that are starting to see this event. The reason I'm so optimistic is the temperature and time of day. The sun will be down and the temps will be falling from the mid 20's to the upper teens. We will see 15:1 or better ratios for the majority of the event and every flake that falls is going to stick. Call me an optimist, but after looking tonight, I wont be surprised if most of AGC wakes up to 3+ and Westmoreland seeing 5+. Here's hoping 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Alright, hear me out. I feel like this storm has a decent chance of over performing. Since last night, the models have moved a little further to the NW with the precip shield. This is also inline with the rapid models that are starting to see this event. The reason I'm so optimistic is the temperature and time of day. The sun will be down and the temps will be falling from the mid 20's to the upper teens. We will see 15:1 or better ratios for the majority of the event and every flake that falls is going to stick. Call me an optimist, but after looking tonight, I wont be surprised if most of AGC wakes up to 3+ and Westmoreland seeing 5+. Here's hoping 6z euro snow map has 3-4 for AGH so maybe you get your wish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Alright, hear me out. I feel like this storm has a decent chance of over performing. Since last night, the models have moved a little further to the NW with the precip shield. This is also inline with the rapid models that are starting to see this event. The reason I'm so optimistic is the temperature and time of day. The sun will be down and the temps will be falling from the mid 20's to the upper teens. We will see 15:1 or better ratios for the majority of the event and every flake that falls is going to stick. Call me an optimist, but after looking tonight, I wont be surprised if most of AGC wakes up to 3+ and Westmoreland seeing 5+. Here's hoping I've also noted the subtle but consistent ticks NW of the precip field over the past 36 hours or so, should that be accurate and continue through game time certainly bodes well to maybe snag another inch or so. If the 12z models are NW again today NWS possibly expands advisories to include Allegheny / Armstrong / Indiana. The speed of the system though will still be tough to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Flurries in Collier Twp, hopefully a good sign we won't be fighting dry air at the start of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Flurries already downtown, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 It literally needs to just tick a few miles ( less than 50?) north or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: It literally needs to just tick a few miles ( less than 50?) north or west. It just doesn't look like that's gonna happen. That vort just doesn't want to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: It literally needs to just tick a few miles ( less than 50?) north or west. It always does when there are p-type concerns, so why wouldn’t it now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'll enjoy 2-4 falling in colder than typical temps at night where everything should stick. I think potential on this has been limited more and more by how fast moving this will be. Pattern looks better in the longer range maybe something to watch the weekend of the 16th like was shown on yesterday's 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I mean, yeah looks like we're getting something. The short range models have been kinder today than yesterday, but so close to a 5"-er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I mean, yeah looks like we're getting something. The short range models have been kinder today than yesterday, but so close to a 5"-er. I gotta drive at work tonight so I know that this will overperform. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I gotta drive at work tonight so I know that this will overperform. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 59 minutes ago, TimB84 said: It always does when there are p-type concerns, so why wouldn’t it now? Lol. What was the storm a few years ago where union town got like 18 inches, and even southern AGC got nearly 10 inches but the city north barely managed 5? We kept saying it had to tick north and it didn’t. It seems that we always are stuck either 50-100 miles too far north or south. What was really amazing is that until last December we hadn’t had a 10 inch storm in like 10 years and even a 6 inch storm in a long time but if you drive 50 miles in any direction they all had large storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: Lol. What was the storm a few years ago where union town got like 18 inches, and even southern AGC got nearly 10 inches but the city north barely managed 5? We kept saying it had to tick north and it didn’t. It seems that we always are stuck either 50-100 miles too far north or south. Was that the January 2016 storm that pounded the Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Was that the January 2016 storm that pounded the Mid-Atlantic? Yep, and see my edit. It really is amazing how ideal things seem to have to be to get big storms here, even competitively to places only 50-100 miles from us. I’m sure Morgantown, Youngstown, Altoona, etc have all had more big storms than us the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I remember that one. That storm was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Yep, and see my edit. It really is amazing how ideal things seem to have to be to get big storms here, even competitively to places only 50-100 miles from us. I’m sure Morgantown, Youngstown, Altoona, etc have all had more big storms than us the last decade. I had almost allowed myself to forget 1/19/19. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'm sticking with the positive. We have had Zero snow events this year and I believe most of the county should get 2-3 inches in a 6 hour window tonight. I will take it and get out and enjoy it. No complaints here, 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 22 minutes ago, north pgh said: I'm sticking with the positive. We have had Zero snow events this year and I believe most of the county should get 2-3 inches in a 6 hour window tonight. I will take it and get out and enjoy it. No complaints here, Gotta crawl before we walk. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Gotta crawl before we walk. Lol If it means we get a Blizzard next week I think we can sacrifice this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 While we are riding the edge, at least this doesn't look like the usual 'Youngstown Special'. I guess mother nature wanted to switch it up this time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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