Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 NAM is chasing convection so the totals could be higher. This thing should be on land by 0z tonight atleast the one shortwave. Maybe with sampling we can get a better idea of what's gonna happen. I just don't want the southeast to get the riches again. Regardless there doesn't seem to be much precip with this system so any really totals out our way is gonna be hard to achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM totally misses us. OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: RGEM totally misses us. OTS I hope we can hold serve and even move a little northwest on these next runs but to be honest I do not have a good feeling. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, north pgh said: I hope we can hold serve and even move a little northwest on these next runs but to be honest I do not have a good feeling. I hope I'm wrong. Nope not looking good at all. We need these trends to reverse and fast. If we don't see any correction back NW by 0z then I'm afraid that will miss again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS is disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I may have to move to Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Mailman said: GFS is disappointing. Yeah not over yet but still haven't seen any positive trends. This is fast moving and isn't amping fast enough to cut north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 From WPC...This really doesn't sound too bad. ...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Day 3... Shortwave energy crossing the central U.S. in the quasi-zonal flow begins to sharpen and dig as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley Thursday. An area of low pressure over the Deep South is then expected to strengthen as it lifts northeast through the southern Appalachians then off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Modest moisture being tapped from the Gulf will help drive widespread precipitation across the lower Ohio Valley through much of the central/southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. With the current forecast track, a transition zone of rain/snow would potentially bisect the urban corridor with the current favored area for accumulating snow to the west/interior areas but there remains some considerable uncertainty in the eventual low pressure track and therefore the amount/depth of cold air in place. But there is an increasing signal for several inches of snow for portions of eastern Kentucky into West Virginia through the end of Day 3 and the latest probabilistic guidance has increased subsequently. The latest WPC probabilities for 4 inches are now high across eastern Kentucky through much of West Virginia with a broad area of moderate probabilities around it from central Kentucky into the Mid-Atlantic. Taylor/Pereira Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 That piece of energy streaming across north of the system needs to trend weaker / faster. It's knocking down heights ahead of our storm and since it's not an overly powerful system to begin with that is likely one of the leading causes that would limit how far NW this can go and ultimately how fast it can strengthen. That type of interaction probably won't be modeled very well in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Bernie Rayno fwiw thinks the storm comes up the coast and not out to sea. There's a lot moving pieces these models are figuring out including what boundary the storm forms on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 That piece of energy streaming across north of the system needs to trend weaker / faster. It's knocking down heights ahead of our storm and since it's not an overly powerful system to begin with that is likely one of the leading causes that would limit how far NW this can go and ultimately how fast it can strengthen. That type of interaction probably won't be modeled very well in advance. Agreed. There’s a lot of complicated pieces here that still need to evolve. The energy of the storm came in from the pac nw but now we need to see how it interacts with the southern jet. Lots of players still need to get closer to their positions for us to really figure out what is going to happen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Looks to be cold Thursday night for when the snow would hopefully be falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Euro is worse. That lead wave is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro is worse. That lead wave is killing us. Yes the boundary is too far south and the storm develops too far south for us. It also looks like a weak POS for pretty much everywhere compared to the good runs it was spitting out from the earlier runs. I'll settle for any snow since it has been non-existent this winter but with these trends we could end up with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z suite got me like... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Seventh least snowy start to the winter (through 1/4). A lot of missing data is noted for several years - probably just days where no snow was observed, and the entry left blank by the observer. But if there's any real missing data in those years, the snowfall could be higher than shown. I suspect if the records were still kept downtown, it would be even worse than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z run of the Euro Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 By the looks of the most current models, Thursday evenings storm is only going to be a 6-9 hour event. Therefore if things hold true we are looking at a 1 maybe 2 inch event for our area if we are able to hang on to the northwest edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Latest GFS wants to start squashing things again. Not enough separation of the two waves. You really want the first wave to speed up and move out of the way or the second wave to lag behind, getting enough space to start tilting towards the negative before it jumps off the coast. Miller B systems don't generally work in PIT unless the first primary has time to strengthen. I don't trust the long-range NAM so while it looks better, I don't think it's enough to consider beyond a brief note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I'm throwing in the towel on anything more than minor accumulations. Most likely will be 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Most of us would be happy with the Rgems solution https://imgur.com/a/ZS2Z2kK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 hours ago, Rd9108 said: I'm throwing in the towel on anything more than minor accumulations. Most likely will be 1-3. I agree, realistically this didn't have that big of an upside for our area. Seems like most places are going to be in a 1-3 / 2-4 type range with possibly a very narrow stripe of 5+ way further SE. Just getting 1-2 inches though is fine by me, we can break the December snowfall total by a magnitude of 10 in a single storm. I think it's been since late November since I've even had any snow on the ground. Going forward in time, the pattern is at least conducive for more snow chances and we might get downright cold for awhile. The overall trough axis in the longer range is probably not ideal (to far east) but that's far from set in stone as we've seen good looks change slightly in ways that degrade the pattern. Could easily see a clipper type pattern setup for a time (Whos up for a Saskatchewan screamer?), and those won't even really show on models until the short / medium range and track and interaction with the lakes etc will all remain short term forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Now at 329 days without a 2 inch daily snowfall at PIT. If this storm doesn’t produce 2 inches on either Thursday or Friday (not combined), we move into the top 5. Record is 369 from 1/21/1978 through 1/24/1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 SREFs jumped (for some reason) to 4.5". Really doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I agree, realistically this didn't have that big of an upside for our area. Seems like most places are going to be in a 1-3 / 2-4 type range with possibly a very narrow stripe of 5+ way further SE. Just getting 1-2 inches though is fine by me, we can break the December snowfall total by a magnitude of 10 in a single storm. I think it's been since late November since I've even had any snow on the ground. Going forward in time, the pattern is at least conducive for more snow chances and we might get downright cold for awhile. The overall trough axis in the longer range is probably not ideal (to far east) but that's far from set in stone as we've seen good looks change slightly in ways that degrade the pattern. Could easily see a clipper type pattern setup for a time (Whos up for a Saskatchewan screamer?), and those won't even really show on models until the short / medium range and track and interaction with the lakes etc will all remain short term forecasts. Yes it will be nice to see it snowing even though it is only an inch or so. Plus it will only snow for 6 hours or so and hopefully it will be daylight so we can see it. (I hate when it snows when I'm sleeping and you wake up and it is on the ground but done snowing) I was thinking the same thing about the clippers. This kind of setup we are in is not prime for any big storms but with the cold and northwest flow I would take a couple 2-4 clipper type systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I like clippers. They always seem to overperform here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Canadian has ticked slightly northwest. If it holds we may get a few hours of moderate snow late tomorrow. I'm thinking if it happens we could (maybe) get a surprise upper end of 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: SREFs jumped (for some reason) to 4.5". Really doubt that. They like to troll us all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Could Friday be one of those days where lake effect gives us nice mood snow for a lot longer than anticipated? With the much colder weather on Friday hopefully there is a northwest flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Could Friday be one of those days where lake effect gives us nice mood snow for a lot longer than anticipated? With the much colder weather on Friday hopefully there is a northwest flow. Looks like winds at the surface and aloft are going to be W to WNW at best on Friday, so that’s an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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