blackngoldrules Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 All it takes is one Feb 5 or Jan 1994 storm and I'd be happy. If it's notngonna snow I would rather it be warm.I feel the same way. We can have a mild winter and I'm fine with that if we can hit the jackpot on one or two storms. I'd take that over cold and snow showers that give us a dusting here and there.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 10:03 AM, PghPirates27 said: Looks like the week between x-mas and new years is trending warmer. Been watching it for the last week. Since Last Tuesday the average temp in the forecast for the week of 12/26 has gone up 7 degrees for the high and 8 degrees for the low. Now looking like all highs in the 40's all of next week through new years. Still early but looking on the warmer side. If it's going to be in the 40's I'll take it along with the sunshine. Models seem to keep washing out the SE Ridge past day 7-10, so things look better a week out only to hedge warmer. Maybe 5-7 days ago it looked colder Christmas Eve / Day with maybe some light snow, now 50s and rain. It's going to be hard to mitigate that record -PNA we have going on right now. This December may be the all time record for that. Right now it's basically a shut out pattern. I think our best shot may be into the first part of the new year, if we can time some blocking and at least a relaxation of the SE Ridge / - PNA pattern I could see a decent cold shot, and hopefully at least a better chance to time a shortwave with some cold air but think we will could be fighting warm / wet vs cold / dry. All patterns relax even if they only reload, our hope may lie in timing something with those, on the converse if we lose the high latitude blocking and the -PNA flexes again I think some record highs will get broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Models seem to keep washing out the SE Ridge past day 7-10, so things look better a week out only to hedge warmer. Maybe 5-7 days ago it looked colder Christmas Eve / Day with maybe some light snow, now 50s and rain. It's going to be hard to mitigate that record -PNA we have going on right now. This December may be the all time record for that. Right now it's basically a shut out pattern. I think our best shot may be into the first part of the new year, if we can time some blocking and at least a relaxation of the SE Ridge / - PNA pattern I could see a decent cold shot, and hopefully at least a better chance to time a shortwave with some cold air but think we will could be fighting warm / wet vs cold / dry. All patterns relax even if they only reload, our hope may lie in timing something with those, on the converse if we lose the high latitude blocking and the -PNA flexes again I think some record highs will get broken. If it's not gonna snow I'll take golfing in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 23 hours ago, Rd9108 said: All it takes is one Feb 5 or Jan 1994 storm and I'd be happy. If it's notngonna snow I would rather it be warm. Not that our preference has any effect, but if we could get warm and dry / cold and dry / or cold and wet (snow) I'd take any of those over warm and wet, nothing worse than overcast / fog / rain and the short days imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Crazy that last year we already had a double digit storm in the books, and was knocking on the door of our 3rd 6”er. On the bright side - hasn’t been any stress or disappointment yet. But I’m more than ready for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas all! Let’s hope we can track a double digit snowfall in January or February 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas all you weather peeps! Hope you are having a nice time with your loved ones! Let’s hope we get some better weather soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Interestingly, even though NWS called for no freezing precipitation here, I woke to a light glaze of ice on everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 53 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Interestingly, even though NWS called for no freezing precipitation here, I woke to a light glaze of ice on everything. It looked like maybe some sleet fell here at some point this morning, but was all rain by the time I got up. Still, the evidence of frozen precip was on my wooden steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 At this point, I think it's necessary to back off any big-time pattern change in the near future. The models have kept delaying even a subtle variation in our base state. The -PNA is controlling our weather, and that's likely being manipulated by something upstream in Russia. Until we can dislodge the current pacific features, we can't really get a trough in the East and a sustained cold-air dump. We might get brief waves, but the enduring pattern is relatively mild, and trying to time precip with a one or two-day bump isn't going to go well usually. A combination of factors has meant the MJO isn't able to drive a change, either. We'll have to keep looking out there at range and hope the window closes in terms of time. I worry we're in another situation where the models tease a flip that never comes. So far, though, I will say Winter has gone as I, among others, expected it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 16 hours ago, jwilson said: At this point, I think it's necessary to back off any big-time pattern change in the near future. The models have kept delaying even a subtle variation in our base state. The -PNA is controlling our weather, and that's likely being manipulated by something upstream in Russia. Until we can dislodge the current pacific features, we can't really get a trough in the East and a sustained cold-air dump. We might get brief waves, but the enduring pattern is relatively mild, and trying to time precip with a one or two-day bump isn't going to go well usually. A combination of factors has meant the MJO isn't able to drive a change, either. We'll have to keep looking out there at range and hope the window closes in terms of time. I worry we're in another situation where the models tease a flip that never comes. So far, though, I will say Winter has gone as I, among others, expected it. I think as we head into January there will be at least a few interludes with cooler temperatures, but as you mention timing those brief favorable periods with a storm will only complicate the necessary setups we need for a decent storm. Outside of something minor it looks like an uphill battle for any big storms that would produce mainly frozen have much of a chance, the typical cold chasing moisture behind a frontal passage with NW flow or snow to slop / rain storm are likely the more favored outcomes. It seems the Nina base state is overwhelming the MJO, phase 7 should be acceptable for January but just not seeing much of a response in the pattern. It does seem over the past several years whatever the dominant features at play close in on record breaking territories, maybe a sign of the impacts of climate change? December thus far is +6 in temperature departure and +.5 for precipitation (only .3in total of which has been snow). We only look to build on both of those to close out the month, which makes it hard to imagine January could be any worse in terms of snow prospects. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Anything possible for the 6/7th? Weather channel saying 1-3”. Still too far out but might have something worth following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 PIT looks to finish December with an average temperature somewhere around 40.9 (+7.2 departure, 9th warmest all time, 2nd warmest in the KPIT era only behind 2015) and 0.3” of snow (-7.4 departure, 7th least all time, 3rd least in the KPIT era behind only 1994 and 2014 and tied with 2015). January can’t be worse than that, right? No model consistency on the January 6th-7th potential, though it seems likely there will be precip during that timeframe and in some cases a chance for something worth tracking. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Keeping hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Looks like the 7th is our first legit shot at snow. Euronhas the bullseye a little far out but still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Seems like with the last few storms we've gotten the bullseye of the moisture. Hopefully, with more cold air we'll get that same precipitation track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Our family heard it in Ross Twp. It was loud enough to rattle the windows here. Sounded like one loud thundercrack, but given people have said they heard it from Moon to Oakmont to Greensburg to Bethel, it looks like something higher up in the atmosphere is more likely than something on the ground. In other news - Thursday seems to be flirting up and down on WUnderground with totals. Temps look right, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Maybe a coating tomorrow from the system that looks to be south of us and then possibly a moderate event next weekend. Nothing to write home about but may finally start seeing snow and not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 first snow porn of the season 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Accuweather says Thursday in the day we get 1.1" of snow and then 7" in the night. Obviously, the point and click is non sense at this point, but here's hoping, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS has gradually been diminishing the end-of-week threat, which is ironic because the Euro and Canadian have done the opposite in amping it and pulling it to the west. It's hard to bet against the Euro and CMC combo, but the Euro has not been as great lately. Perhaps a middle ground blend is the expectation for now, though I'd remain concerned if the GFS continues with a progressive solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 15 hours ago, jwilson said: GFS has gradually been diminishing the end-of-week threat, which is ironic because the Euro and Canadian have done the opposite in amping it and pulling it to the west. It's hard to bet against the Euro and CMC combo, but the Euro has not been as great lately. Perhaps a middle ground blend is the expectation for now, though I'd remain concerned if the GFS continues with a progressive solution. It looks like the NAM is coming around to our potential Friday storm. Now all we need is the GFS and we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, north pgh said: It looks like the NAM is coming around to our potential Friday storm. Now all we need is the GFS and we have something to track. I definitely think there's something to track. Everything but GFS is looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 How concerned should we be that the GFS hasn’t picked up on anything with the Thurs/Fri storm less than 4 days from onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: How concerned should we be that the GFS hasn’t picked up on anything with the Thurs/Fri storm less than 4 days from onset? very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: very That has been my inclination, but wanted to confirm that it isn’t just my own already well-documented pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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