beavis1729 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 40 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Detroit is near average snow to date, there's snow on the ground and it's cold. What more can a winter lover ask for? Might as well take the bait. The short version: There are three issues for winter lovers - (1) Our average snowfall is pathetic to begin with (2) Snowfall is not a good metric for winter lovers anyway; should use Snow Depth Days (SDDs) (3) In Detroit's case...along with any other areas near here who actually saw some snow between Nov 15-Dec 15...it was all gone by Christmas anyway. So, any snowfall before Christmas this year was just stat-padding, and not very meaningful. Once a snowpack begins after 12/1, it should stay. It can fluctuate up and down a bit when bigger storms or modest thaws occur...but it shouldn't go away completely. That's why it's so important to get decent snowfall amounts early in the season...say 11/20 through 12/10. Otherwise, you have to hope every single day remains in the 20s or colder in order to preserve what little is on the ground (even for me, that's a lot to ask for). There is a huge irony in all of this - our winter climo would be improved dramatically by a small increase in average snowfall (say up to 50"), with DJF average temps about 5F colder. Not asking for International Falls or the UP or Fairbanks, contrary to how many on this forum characterize things. Very simple - seasons in seasons. 90 days of consistent summer (Jun 10 - Sep 10 in NE IL due to lake influence), matched by 90 days of consistent winter. We have consistent summer every year, except maybe 1992 with Pinatubo; I don't wake up on August 10th or June 24th or July 8th and wonder if it will feel like summer that day. It's something you can count on. But we have only had consistent winter once (1978-79). Consistent winter means nearly all days (not necessarily 100%) during the 90-day period have high temps < 35F and at least 2" of snow cover. Again, nothing crazy. Many of you don't agree on this next point...but 2010-11 was infuriating to me because, as great as the GHD I storm was, the snow was all gone 2 weeks later. If GHD I occurred on March 1st instead of Feb 1st, that would be fine...but 22" of snow that falls on Feb 1st should remain on the ground for the rest of Feb, at a minimum. Even 12" should. Not saying the depth has to remain at 22"...but you just can't have 22" of snow melt in 2 weeks during met winter. For anyone who cares - I don't really enjoy participating on or viewing this sub-forum anymore...because everyone goes out of their way to make you feel guilty and defensive about loving winter. It really sucks. You don't want to hear the long version. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Might as well take the bait. The short version: There are three issues for winter lovers - (1) Our average snowfall is pathetic to begin with (2) Snowfall is not a good metric for winter lovers anyway; should use Snow Depth Days (SDDs) (3) In Detroit's case...along with any other areas near here who actually saw some snow between Nov 15-Dec 15...it was all gone by Christmas anyway. So, any snowfall before Christmas this year was just stat-padding, and not very meaningful. Once a snowpack begins after 12/1, it should stay. It can fluctuate up and down a bit when bigger storms or modest thaws occur...but it shouldn't go away completely. That's why it's so important to get decent snowfall amounts early in the season...say 11/20 through 12/10. Otherwise, you have to hope every single day remains in the 20s or colder in order to preserve what little is on the ground (even for me, that's a lot to ask for). There is a huge irony in all of this - our winter climo would be improved dramatically by a small increase in average snowfall (say up to 50"), with DJF average temps about 5F colder. Not asking for International Falls or the UP or Fairbanks, contrary to how many on this forum characterize things. Very simple - seasons in seasons. 90 days of consistent summer (Jun 10 - Sep 10 in NE IL due to lake influence), matched by 90 days of consistent winter. We have consistent summer every year, except maybe 1992 with Pinatubo; I don't wake up on August 10th or June 24th or July 8th and wonder if it will feel like summer that day. It's something you can count on. But we have only had consistent winter once (1978-79). Consistent winter means nearly all days (not necessarily 100%) during the 90-day period have high temps < 35F and at least 2" of snow cover. Again, nothing crazy. Many of you don't agree on this next point...but 2010-11 was infuriating to me because, as great as the GHD I storm was, the snow was all gone 2 weeks later. If GHD I occurred on March 1st instead of Feb 1st, that would be fine...but 22" of snow that falls on Feb 1st should remain on the ground for the rest of Feb, at a minimum. Even 12" should. Not saying the depth has to remain at 22"...but you just can't have 22" of snow melt in 2 weeks during met winter. For anyone who cares - I don't really enjoy participating on or viewing this sub-forum anymore...because everyone goes out of their way to make you feel guilty and defensive about loving winter. It really sucks. You don't want to hear the long version. I was definitely being sarcastic about Detroit. A winter lover couldn't be that satisfied with what has happened so far, even there. Like you said, too much of a break in December. I think your standards are too high for where we live. They will only be met maybe 1% or 2% of the time. Most people don't judge it how you do. We all like winter (well, most of us). You don't have to feel ostracized or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Detroit is near average snow to date, there's snow on the ground and it's cold. What more can a winter lover ask for? Barely an inch on the ground... and our largest storm is like 4". It isn't a great year. Yes we have had more than others but it's still not great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Barely an inch on the ground... and our largest storm is like 4". It isn't a great year. Yes we have had more than others but it's still not great. So climo for those west of the lakes?! Its ass isn’t it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, hlcater said: So climo for those west of the lakes?! Yes but we aren't there so thats apples to oranges. Also most places west of the lakes still have a 6" storm a year. Except for cedar rapids, they are the San Diego of the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yes but we aren't there so thats apples to oranges. Also most places west of the lakes still have a 6" storm a year. Except for cedar rapids, they are the San Diego of the midwest. Spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Detroit is near average snow to date, there's snow on the ground and it's cold. What more can a winter lover ask for? Real weenies want 8+snow events. There hasnt even been a 6" event to track. Im well aware thats been nonexistent most places this winter except for south of minneapolis, but still these 12+ hrs to get 3-4 inches gets old. Id rather it torch than get any more events where just enough snow falls to make driving difficult lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I'd be happy with at least average snowfall let alone double lol The last 6 winters have been brutal in Cleveland with 4 of the 6 nearly 30 inches below nornal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 127 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2022 SHORT TERM ISSUED AT 125 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2022 THROUGH MONDAY... WHEN IN A TRUE WINTER PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST, THERE OFTEN ARE AT LEAST MINOR EVENTS EVERY ~48 HOURS OR SO, AND THAT'S THE CONTINUED CASE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 22 hours ago, mimillman said: It is a good point on the clipper parades. I can’t remember the last good one where we had several 1-3” type events in a week. That’s supposed to be what we’re known for! LOT: BROAD UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SUCH A REGIME TYPICALLY ACTS AS A HIGHWAY FOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS EVERY 1-2 DAYS, THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ITSELF MAY END UP RATHER BROAD AND UNFOCUSED (E.G. GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING PLENTY OF VARIANCE IN WHERE EACH CLIPPER WILL TRACK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, Baum said: LOT: BROAD UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SUCH A REGIME TYPICALLY ACTS AS A HIGHWAY FOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS EVERY 1-2 DAYS, THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ITSELF MAY END UP RATHER BROAD AND UNFOCUSED (E.G. GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING PLENTY OF VARIANCE IN WHERE EACH CLIPPER WILL TRACK). I agree, just not quite seeing it modeled yet. Can certainly change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I was definitely being sarcastic about Detroit. A winter lover couldn't be that satisfied with what has happened so far, even there. Like you said, too much of a break in December. I think your standards are too high for where we live. They will only be met maybe 1% or 2% of the time. Most people don't judge it how you do. We all like winter (well, most of us). You don't have to feel ostracized or something. I will say those deep cold snaps were a treat for pond hockey & snowshoeing. Definitely would be okay with a Traverse City/Minneapolis type climate which is ironic coming from someone in Charleston but hey that’s what makes weather so cool right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 21 hours ago, Stebo said: Barely an inch on the ground... and our largest storm is like 4". It isn't a great year. Yes we have had more than others but it's still not great. Thanks to the useless brief thaw yesterday there's far more grass than snow showing now. Frozen patches of snow glued to the frozen ground and snow banks that would kill someone in a sniceball fight. Definitely not been a great Winter so far, but I'm liking that we are going to be in a cold pattern for the foreseeable future. Really hoping the clippers pan out. If long range models (as useless as thaws) can be trusted, those who ice fish must be salivating as temperatures look to be well below normal as we approach the dead of Winter later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 22 hours ago, Hoosier said: I was definitely being sarcastic about Detroit. A winter lover couldn't be that satisfied with what has happened so far, even there. Like you said, too much of a break in December. I think your standards are too high for where we live. They will only be met maybe 1% or 2% of the time. Most people don't judge it how you do. We all like winter (well, most of us). You don't have to feel ostracized or something. As a fellow Winter lover, I love beavis' passion but I just don't understand his standards. I know Detroit and Toledo were ground 0 in the historic 2013-14 Winter, but it was still a severe Winter in Chicago. How you cannot consider that a consistent winter is mind boggling. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 this winter blows 12z GFS parts of GA,SC and NC will get more snow next week then parts of the Midwest (chicago) have had all winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just love how it does everything it can to avoid indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 b2b nina trash winter, we'll have better years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 b2b nina trash winter, we'll have better yearsready2 torch this summer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: ready2 torch this summer. . Almost guaranteed that ORD will torch this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 u heard it here first. get your ac tuned up now b4 it's 2 late! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ready2 torch this summer. . Why not Spring at the earliest?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 First the midatlantic, then a noreaster looks likely next. East coast always finds a way to stumble into a storm regardless of enso. Crazy were almost halfway through another big dog less winter in great lakes region. Ediiit, looks like the energy that dives due south out of canada is responsible for the potential east coast storm. Gotta luv the track, around most of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 can we order one of these for the midwest please!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I may have to start going all-in on drought if February somehow manages to be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I may have to start going all-in on drought if February somehow manages to be dry.2012 v2.0 here we come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, ILSNOW said: can we order one of these for the midwest please!!! Hopefully it wraps up so much that it rains on I-95. That is always a nice consolation with big storms out east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: can we order one of these for the midwest please!!! Anything that tries to phase would prob be another MSP special. Rain showers and dry slot for us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Soooooooo tired of hearing nothing more than the term inch or less in the wx snow accum forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 I was already depressed about sitting at less than 2" of snow for the winter and no signs of anything in the offing, but I made the mistake of checking out the weenie explosion in the eastern subforums after the 12z's came out. It would be some consolation if it was dry and seasonable, but this dry, cold, bare frozen tundra crap sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 midwest version of 2022 snowmageddon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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