Hurricane Agnes Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 For the end of month (Feb. 28 - Mar. 1) storm - the 12z EC has an over-running storm with a cold front/LE-looking finish where the GFS has no such storm at all except as something that slides along the STJ and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 It's over man all done with analogs and 30 & 90 day outlooks with possible exception of Weather World they seem to have a magic ability to get 30 days right. Record cold coming for the time period that was going to be mild early spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 March looks great for ice skaters 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I have .10" more snow than Williamsport lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: The Euro cold late in it's run is ludicrous Euro says its over after March 2. Entire continent all the way to the Arctic circle floods with PAC warmth, no cold air left to tap. Im fine with that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: March looks great for ice skaters Where are you seeing this? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Alot of this is sleet, but the frozen signal for Thurs/Fri is close to being locked in now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Where are you seeing this? March opens with Highs in the 20's and single digit lows that's cold in January. No reason to believe anything beyond that other then the pattern is to torch and reload the cold. Snow in April dude wait and see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Alot of this is sleet, but the frozen signal for Thurs/Fri is close to being locked in now. How are the other models now looking for frozen in our region? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Alot of this is sleet, but the frozen signal for Thurs/Fri is close to being locked in now. Steve I suspect this will be the biggest winter event of the season in these parts....all it takes is one event to get us back to near normal for the year..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Alot of this is sleet, but the frozen signal for Thurs/Fri is close to being locked in now. 18z GFS ice and ZR snapshots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 51 minutes ago, mattinpa said: How are the other models now looking for frozen in our region? 12z Canadian is showing a full on ice/ZR storm. (although snow up north) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 18z GFS ice and ZR snapshots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I doubt this Friday is very interesting. Ice events never pan out here. Probably some mixed precip at best. I expect March to be BRUTAL. As always, a fair weather February results in a majorly cold March. Don't need no weather models to tell you that you should all just realize it by now lol. I went perch fishing today so I'm already acclimating myself to another 4 weeks of 30 degree temps. Bundle up boys - this ride ain't over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Some obs for today - after a low of 18 this morning, I made it up to 37 and it's currently 30 with dp 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 0z runs a b movie train wreck. Only thing good was GFS found Ralph's spring after the arctic blasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I doubt this Friday is very interesting. Ice events never pan out here. Probably some mixed precip at best. I expect March to be BRUTAL. As always, a fair weather February results in a majorly cold March. Don't need no weather models to tell you that you should all just realize it by now lol. I went perch fishing today so I'm already acclimating myself to another 4 weeks of 30 degree temps. Bundle up boys - this ride ain't over. Ice fishing, or just regular? Where at? Sorry I'm so full of questions, I've always wanted to go ice fishing for perch but it's yet another hobby I have yet to invest into. I did see some people ice fishing several weeks ago during our super cold snap, so I know it is feasible in our area at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 GFS 6z is still running but the 0z's change was to push most of the the ice further north and end as rain along Philly metro after an initial icing... The 0z Euro is generally mostly rain along the same southern part of the CWA through the event. It's all gonna depend on where the freezing line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6z GFS continues the 0z trends (its own & EC's) mix to rain solution for the Feb 25 storm. The 0z Canadian also has a mix to rain but mirrored the earlier icier solutions from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 0z EC got its senses back and went with a non-phased slider for the end of month storm that it originally had (that GFS didn't). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Its a pink nightmare thats for sure... Ice storms never verify this time of year. My forecast is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 12z NAM at range is a sleet bomb. Looks to occur mainly during the daytime, so there's that. Still, little point analyzing the NAM beyond 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 12z NAM at range is a sleet bomb. Looks to occur mainly during the daytime, so there's that. Still, little point analyzing the NAM beyond 36 hours. Seeing the trend toward 2 waves now....which can sometimes spell a significant frozen event interior. Wave 1 Thursday, pulls down some CAA in its wake, then wave 2 Friday likely beginning as frozen in SE PA but flips wave 2 to rain unless in the LV where I would start to be concerned. Still a ways to go but definitely evolving hour by hour . RGEM is also quite cold moreso than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, zenmsav6810 said: Its a pink nightmare thats for sure... Ice storms never verify this time of year. My forecast is rain. I've seen ice storms in late February before. It isnt unheard of. ETA: though most signatures on guidance are more sleety and less freezing rain, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 12z NAM at range is a sleet bomb. Looks to occur mainly during the daytime, so there's that. Still, little point analyzing the NAM beyond 36 hours. It has some odd antecedent thing going before it starts to align with the other models to show the main event going into the weekend (which mostly occurs outside of the NAM's range at the moment). ETA - the 6z hires EC is actually showing that antecedent feature too but it has it further south than the NAM so it slides below the CWA (and is all rain). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12z GFS holding as a mix/ZR to rain for the southern part of the CWA, keeping the sleet mostly north. ETA the 12z Canadian showing the same type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z GFS holding as a mix/ZR to rain for the southern part of the CWA, keeping the sleet mostly north. ETA the 12z Canadian showing the same type of setup. Well if we do get an ice storm, this time a year it doesn’t usually take too long to warm up and melt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The CMC has a ton of freezing rain and sleet for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, mattinpa said: Well if we do get an ice storm, this time a year it doesn’t usually take too long to warm up and melt It'll be interesting to see how much accretion actually occurs considering it could reach 70 in spots Wednesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Newman said: It'll be interesting to see how much accretion actually occurs considering it could reach 70 in spots Wednesday That’s true. Something else to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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