mattinpa Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Power went out here briefly, but then it caused a power surge and had to trip a couple circuits. Some lights were on and some off. That almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Moving on to the next trackable wintry event, ICON starts 12z off with a mixed mess for most of PA on Feb 24-25. Surface temps don't go above freezing in SE PA until the system is already moving out. Tracks the redeveloping triple point under the region....barely. Close call but clear CAD showing up especially N and W of the fall line. Next up, the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12z GFS improvements for next week. Thump to mix to rain. SLP takes better track, HP stronger and better confluence, also faster moving in with the thump. Redevelopment near Hatteras. Wave slides underneath us. Definitely growing support for a mixed event later next week: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 Getting to that point in the season where we need a lot of things to line up right to get an all snow event around here. Still, I'll take a slop event over cold rain any day. Probably just my imagination but I thought I saw a passing flurries or two, 42F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12z GEFS have improved. Much better confluence and HP with CAD. Most members now sliding underneath us or pretty darn close. 12z CMC is the most suppressed, but even that is close with a small adjustment North. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 As long as Canada is cold, we are going to continue with threats. Like @JTA66 said, tough to get an all snow event as we push into late Feb and early March, but it certainly is doable. Some years you know its over because Canada is overwhelmed with a PAC firehose, etc. This looks like a winter where we will continue getting chances here and there thru a good chunk of March. It will be a roller coaster with 60s sandwiched between cold snaps and trackable events or vice-versa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 That 1046mb HP is about as close to perfect as we would want for a system leading in this time of year...maybe just a hair east and north of perfection but close: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Trending towards the typical thump to mix ending as drizzle even with the track as west as it is. The majority of precip is looking frozen and should remain that way as long as that high stays in that position. NW of the fall line will do better but pretty classic CAD signature showing up at this time frame is encouraging, that typically gets stronger and more pronounced with time. Could be a solid event from 95 N and W. Potential for Lehigh valley to see their biggest event of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Burst of snow/squalls w/reinforcing cold midday tomorrow or so with 40+mph gust? 34F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 44 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Burst of snow/squalls w/reinforcing cold midday tomorrow or so with 40+mph gust? 34F Wind advisory posted for tomorrow. Trash cans back in the garage, let ‘er rip! 34F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 4 hours ago, JTA66 said: Wind advisory posted for tomorrow. Trash cans back in the garage, let ‘er rip! 34F Yeah, 1st and 3rd Saturday of the month here you can burn sticks from your yard, and we have a few down after last night and this morning. Might have to get up early, lol. 40 - 50 mph wind gusts makes it a little hairy. So we'll try to be done by 1 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 6z GFS and 0z EC for the potential mix storm Feb. 25 - 26 (edited to add the Canadian). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 21F at 5:30am, now 25F at 7:30am. Calm as all hell out, winds should ramp up by late morning/early afternoon...hopefully a snow shower/squall rumbles through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 My final low yesterday was 28 just before midnight after a high of 62. This morning I bottomed out at 23 and am currently mostly sunny and up to 31 with dp 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Winds picking up a tad. 35F Snow squall warning at State College... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 6z GFS and 0z EC for the potential mix storm Feb. 25 - 26 (edited to add the Canadian). Wiggum rule gets another shot this week. My point and click says 65 on Wednesday, and a chance of snow on Thursday. I like it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 It's gotta be fun out west with cloud to ground lightning in those squalls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 GFS south and all snow next Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 55 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS south and all snow next Friday We haven't seen this at all this winter where the GFS overdoes the cold push....it never does that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Flizzard conditions going on outside right now. Wiggum rule strikes again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We haven't seen this at all this winter where the GFS overdoes the cold push....it never does that Very true, gfs is likely overdoing the cold air push, however I still think this system will be more frozen than liquid. CAD should hold up well with that strong high to the N. Leaning towards more sleet than anything though right now for the 95 area and suburbs. Still an eternity out in time but right now, 1-3” snow thump to sleet to light rain/drizzle seems like a fair guess. Looks like a Lehigh valley special at this moment though they also likely change to sleet too, just think they will very likely be all frozen unless the models are way off with that high strength or position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Light snow falling here. Temp 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Snow squall warning just hoisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Snow Squall Warning in Berks/N. Montco - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Snow Squall Warning in Berks/N. Montco - Getting very dark to the West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Getting very dark to the West Looks pretty intense on radar! It was dark briefly here between noon and 1 pm but at the time the temp was bopping between 39 and 40. Didn't see any precip. during that time. It's currently 41 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Huge flizzard right now. Were just about to leave for our weekly dog training class but I think we'll wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Very true, gfs is likely overdoing the cold air push, however I still think this system will be more frozen than liquid. CAD should hold up well with that strong high to the N. Leaning towards more sleet than anything though right now for the 95 area and suburbs. Still an eternity out in time but right now, 1-3” snow thump to sleet to light rain/drizzle seems like a fair guess. Looks like a Lehigh valley special at this moment though they also likely change to sleet too, just think they will very likely be all frozen unless the models are way off with that high strength or position. Problem is as we see even on the GEFS, HP center is way out in the Dakotas. We are relying on an extension to the E of the HP to act as a banana high. Unfortunately, with no blocking and confluence weakening, that extension of HP is going to erode fairly quickly while the main center continues to build SE into the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 It’s here, winds are insane WOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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