hazwoper Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 This is gonna be a long winter. And by long I mean sheety. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, hazwoper said: This is gonna be a long winter. And by long I mean sheety. Based off what ?gonna be alot of Miller B storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 ECM gives an empiric victory this morning with an ice cold Christmas Eve and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM gives an empiric victory this morning with an ice cold Christmas Eve and day 35-45F Christmas highs is ice cold these days? Boy, we have lowered our standards, fallen and can't get up.... 34F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 35-45F Christmas highs is ice cold these days? Boy, we have lowered our standards, fallen and can't get up.... 34F I remember a few back in the 80's ice cold was -6 degrees at dawn. It was a cold sunrise service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: I remember a few back in the 80's ice cold was -6 degrees at dawn. It was a cold sunrise service. Yep. We have a hard time reaching the teens these days... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 hours ago, Birds~69 said: 35-45F Christmas highs is ice cold these days? Boy, we have lowered our standards, fallen and can't get up.... 34F Btw that was highs in the 20's Xmas day when is the last time it was that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, RedSky said: Btw that was highs in the 20's Xmas day when is the last time it was that cold 2013ABEXmas.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: 2013ABEXmas.pdf I like 1983 with the 8F and a boring winter followed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Going back to 1995 all Christmas days with a high of freezing or below went on to be good winters. Different story the previous 25 years, almost a pattern there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Growing signal the blocking is legit and a seasonable to below normal temperature Holiday period is coming. The missing ingredient is southern jet moisture. * Not asking for much can a man get a 2" clipper or over running event the low sun angle will keep it around for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, RedSky said: I like 1983 with the 8F and a boring winter followed Actually in Jan. 84 it hit -11 at ABE and in March there we 2 significant storms. I was interviewed on TV in mid-Jan when we got out early from school from a storm that only ended up leaving a couple of inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Actually in Jan. 84 it hit -11 at ABE and in March there we 2 significant storms. I was interviewed on TV in mid-Jan when we got out early from school from a storm that only ended up leaving a couple of inches But boring none the less with < average snow and one storm of 6" in March. Back then I wanted big ones like in 83, 78 or 79 lol It was a 2009'ish winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 13 hours ago, MJO812 said: Based off what ?gonna be alot of Miller B storms. I don't know. To me it just seems like this pattern will be a tough one to change. So many factors seem to be aligning negatively. We had a nice La Nina last year, but this one seems more typical. Obviously the pattern can flip, but I'm not all that thrilled. A Miller B or two, sure, but pattern seems to be favoring cutters constantly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 If JTA66 lived in Iowa today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 41 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I don't know. To me it just seems like this pattern will be a tough one to change. So many factors seem to be aligning negatively. We had a nice La Nina last year, but this one seems more typical. Obviously the pattern can flip, but I'm not all that thrilled. A Miller B or two, sure, but pattern seems to be favoring cutters constantly here. Not sure if it will matter or how much, but the Nina appears to have peaked and is beginning it's gradual forecast weakening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 43 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I don't know. To me it just seems like this pattern will be a tough one to change. So many factors seem to be aligning negatively. We had a nice La Nina last year, but this one seems more typical. Obviously the pattern can flip, but I'm not all that thrilled. A Miller B or two, sure, but pattern seems to be favoring cutters constantly here. Also, there are waves of warming happening in the Strat and the SPV is showing sign of being displaced and/or elongated. I dont think the 'boring' pattern will last much longer and will add that by early January we should have several tellies working in our favor (-AO,-NAO, +EPO). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 LR ens....ridging in the NAO region, 50/50 anchored in place, AO going negative, big EPO ridge, weak SER.....looks like a decent overunning setup. What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 25 minutes ago, RedSky said: If JTA66 lived in Iowa today https://twitter.com/NStewCBS2/status/1470954967380942854 Lol...the animation cracked me up. They really exaggerated to make a point. I had some moments where my trashcans blew 50ft down the road but sure as hell not to space... Cloudy/54F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I embedded a twitter finally it only took 70 tries and still not sure how i did it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: I embedded a twitter finally it only took 70 tries and still not sure how i did it lol Just right click on the twitter video etc and select "copy video address" then make your written post here and at the end right click and select paste. Looks and feels more like Oct than Dec. Cloudy/gloomy and 53F... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 hours ago, hazwoper said: I don't know. To me it just seems like this pattern will be a tough one to change. So many factors seem to be aligning negatively. We had a nice La Nina last year, but this one seems more typical. Obviously the pattern can flip, but I'm not all that thrilled. A Miller B or two, sure, but pattern seems to be favoring cutters constantly here. Biggest issue is moisture transport it's been a dry pattern for three months. Copious moisture has had us luck into snow in many a recent above normal temperature winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Just right click on the twitter video etc and select "copy video address" then make your written post here and at the end right click and select paste. Looks and feels more like Oct than Dec. Cloudy/gloomy and 53F... Hilarious I did it but not that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Already 52F at 9:20am....decent shot I hit 60F+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Only got down to 49F here overnight. Funny how no one says, "What happens in December, the winter will remember" when it's mild & dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Going yellow jacket hunting today, only spotted flies and skeeters yesterday wish me luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 GFS has highs in the 20's the 24th-25th and CMC is in the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 ECM is 45-50F the 24th-25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Going yellow jacket hunting today, only spotted flies and skeeters yesterday wish me luck I had one buzz me just now. Good grief. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: ECM is 45-50F the 24th-25th Said back in Nov that we would get tired of mid 40s to low 50s and partly sunny stretches. So far has lived up to hype of a Nina with no real excitement or storminess. Going to need patience this year. Also said at that time that the biggest key to the winter will be the NAO phase. Some changes are coming to my outlook for JFM that I will try and post later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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