Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Bring on severe season....I surrender Prediction: Below average Spring temps, damp, cloudy, showers/rain galore til June then blow torch/above average temps till mid-late Oct... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Prediction: Below average Spring temps, damp, cloudy, showers/rain galore til June then blow torch/above average temps till mid-late Oct... Scorching summer, handful of 100 degree days and many mid upper 90s. Hope u r ready. This will be the sacrifice we endure for the epic winter coming in 2022-2023. Mark it down and lock it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Scorching summer, handful of 100 degree days and many mid upper 90s. Hope u r ready. This will be the sacrifice we endure for the epic winter coming in 2022-2023. Mark it down and lock it up. Although I can't stand H-H-H days if I come home home and the radar is lit up like a firecracker it lessens the pain somewhat... Jebman? Is that you? Trout season opens 4/2, French creek....probably a blizzard. 53F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I was going to say a Wiggum watch is in order with temps approaching 60 next couple of days but we are entering the end of the research dates where the percentages begin to drop significantly. For those thay dont know i have an ongoing independent study since 2007 which indicates a 94.3% chance that when the temp hits 60 in my area between Dec 28 and Feb 10 the same area sees snowflakes of some sort (a storm, flurries, a mix etc) within 5 days following the recorded 60 degree temp.Would certainly make sense if we saw a few snowflakes Sunday after kissing 60 the next couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Its over. Huge hemispheric push of warmth coming to the Arctic circle by the 20th as per the mid atl thread. Good luck re-establishing the cold air source. Im not even so sure PA sees a flake this weekend tbh....it is slipping away completely on most guidance. But I do agree finally, the blinds look like they are about to shut. Modoki Nino next year ftmfw!!! Yep writing was on the wall last week, but it was far enough out in guidance time that it could have reversed... not the case unfortunately as all guidance now progresses the MJO through 4-6 and by the time we get to 7, winter is over and there will be no cold air left to recover. I'm going to actually LOL though if we get a great coastal track in this time period that is all rain because the cold air has left the continent. Kind of like what the GFS shows long range.. Just one final shot in the nuts as Winter 21-22 progresses into spring. This winter definitely could have been worse down our way though. Not too many 2nd year mod-strong nina's even have 1 warning level event so we at least lucked out there unlike further N. And the SNJ/DE folks actually had a good winter snow wise when they are usually on the short end of things typically. Hope you are right wrt it being a Modoki Nino next year. I'll take active SS with seasonable cold and take our chances. Seems like we are well overdue for a winter of sustained Atlantic blocking as well and not just a couple weeks followed by endless +AO/+NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Euro is better than 00z, at least most of the area sees some snowflakes. Just need a 50 mile jog north and most of us would have a solid advisory event, it's doable right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 No warnings imby this year, just advisories. But that’s okay. I had such little expectations heading into this winter that it still feels like a bit of an over achiever. At least there were events to track and the ground was white at times. I still think we’ll get a minor stat-padder or two in March, so historically this winter will end up looking better than it actually was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 At least we have the traditional cold and gloomy April pattern that we've all grown accustomed to showing on the CFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Anyone else gonna day drink some beers Saturday outside lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Looks like our high today was 52°F. It's been mostly cloudy all afternoon, and quite gusty! Our highest gust reach almost 20mph around 2pm but it's been tapering off since. Some light rain showers are moving through the area as well. Feels kinda spring-like. Don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Anyone else gonna day drink some beers Saturday outside lol My wife, mother-in-law, and their friends are having a "Galantines Day" afternoon here on Saturday. So yes, most definitely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Made it up to 54 today and it's currently clear and 48 with dp 26. I did notice that my snowdrops were throwing up their little bloom buds so this week will get them blooming before the arctic blast due over the weekend to remind them about their name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: At least we have the traditional cold and gloomy April pattern that we've all grown accustomed to showing on the CFS: In my eyes this is good news. I'll take it for May as well... 43F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 First mosquito spotted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Taking the under for $100... 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 43 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Taking the under for $100... 33F It says "mainly on grassy surfaces" - your favorite kind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: It says "mainly on grassy surfaces" - your favorite kind! Oh, believe me I know, that's why I took the "under". I don't count snow in my yearly total which doesn't stick to paved surfaces. Underproductive snow (doesn't stick to paved surfaces) is kinda like a foul HR in baseball. They both look great in the air and falling but fail eventually which makes the final product null and void... 33F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Oh, believe me I know, that's why I took the "under". I don't count snow in my yearly total which doesn't stick to paved surfaces. Underproductive snow (doesn't stick to paved surfaces) is kinda like a foul HR in baseball. They both look great in the air and falling but fail eventually which makes the final product null and void... 33F What's the equivalent in snow for Richie Ashburn hitting the same fan twice (with 2 separate foul balls) in the same at bat? I think most Phillies fans know that story even if it is from 1957. Pretty funny, since she survived it. They were carrying her away on a stretcher when he hit her the second time (there was a game delay while they attended to her after the 1st one). Eta - here's a possibility, Feb. 5th and 9th, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 hours ago, KamuSnow said: What's the equivalent in snow for Richie Ashburn hitting the same fan twice (with 2 separate foul balls) in the same at bat? I think most Phillies fans know that story even if it is from 1957. Pretty funny, since she survived it. They were carrying her away on a stretcher when he hit her the second time (there was a game delay while they attended to her after the 1st one). Eta - here's a possibility, Feb. 5th and 9th, 2010? I don't think there's a equivalent to Ashburn pegging the woman twice on back-back pitches although Feb 5 and 9th would be the closest I can think of also. Broke her nose on the first foul and broke a bone in her leg while being taken away on a stretcher on the next pitch. Man, that's just nuts...we would need two 30"+ blizzards within a week to even come close. 36F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I'm hugging the NAM idgaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I'm hugging the NAM idgaf LOL The Euro & GFS have a similar "double low" thing going but the Euro has less than half the precip that the NAM shows, but is midway between the NAM and GFS's whiff. I think something is going to happen but it's dependent on whatever antecedent snow might make it to the ground before the larger system gears up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I'm hugging the NAM idgaf I'm in - group hug! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: I'm hugging the NAM idgaf where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 I'm hugging today's and tomorrow's temps...already up to 55F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'm hugging today's and tomorrow's temps...already up to 55F Heat's off, couple screen windows open to vent stale air out and thinking about BBQing tomorrow. *May set a record high at Superbowl location: Record: 82F Projected High: 84F 55F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 59F in Ivyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 57.8 our warmest since the 58.5 on Jan 2nd - little different at the shore with the icy Atlantic water temps....and the PM Sea Breeze already kicking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just hit 61F in Ivyland. What a February day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 57 glorious degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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