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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Prediction: Below average Spring temps, damp, cloudy, showers/rain galore til June then blow torch/above average temps till mid-late Oct... 

Scorching summer, handful of 100 degree days and many mid upper 90s. Hope u r ready. This will be the sacrifice we endure for the epic winter coming in 2022-2023. Mark it down and lock it up.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Scorching summer, handful of 100 degree days and many mid upper 90s. Hope u r ready. This will be the sacrifice we endure for the epic winter coming in 2022-2023. Mark it down and lock it up.

Although I can't stand H-H-H days if I come home home and the radar is lit up like a firecracker it lessens the pain somewhat...

Jebman? Is that you?

Trout season opens 4/2, French creek....probably a blizzard.

53F

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I was going to say a Wiggum watch is in order with temps approaching 60 next couple of days but we are entering the end of the research dates where the percentages begin to drop significantly.

For those thay dont know i have an ongoing independent study since 2007 which indicates a 94.3% chance that when the temp hits 60 in my area between Dec 28 and Feb 10 the same area sees snowflakes of some sort (a storm, flurries, a mix etc)  within 5 days following the recorded 60 degree temp.Would certainly make sense if we saw a few snowflakes Sunday after kissing 60 the next couple of days. 

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41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its over. Huge hemispheric push of warmth coming to the Arctic circle by the 20th as per the mid atl thread. Good luck re-establishing the cold air source. Im not even so sure PA sees a flake this weekend tbh....it is slipping away completely on most guidance. But I do agree finally, the blinds look like they are about to shut. Modoki Nino next year ftmfw!!! 

Yep writing was on the wall last week, but it was far enough out in guidance time that it could have reversed... not the case unfortunately as all guidance now progresses the MJO through 4-6 and by the time we get to 7, winter is over and there will be no cold air left to recover. I'm going to actually LOL though if we get a great coastal track in this time period that is all rain because the cold air has left the continent. Kind of like what the GFS shows long range.. Just one final shot in the nuts as Winter 21-22 progresses into spring.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_56.png

 

This winter definitely could have been worse down our way though. Not too many 2nd year mod-strong nina's even have 1 warning level event so we at least lucked out there unlike further N. And the SNJ/DE folks actually had a good winter snow wise when they are usually on the short end of things typically. Hope you are right wrt it being a Modoki Nino next year. I'll take active SS with seasonable cold and take our chances. Seems like we are well overdue for a winter of sustained Atlantic blocking as well and not just a couple weeks followed by endless +AO/+NAO. 

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No warnings imby this year, just advisories. But that’s okay. I had such little expectations heading into this winter that it still feels like a bit of an over achiever. At least there were events to track and the ground was white at times.

I still think we’ll get a minor stat-padder or two in March, so historically this winter will end up looking better than it actually was.

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7 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

It says "mainly on grassy surfaces" - your favorite kind!

Oh, believe me I know, that's why I took the "under". I don't count snow in my yearly total which doesn't stick to paved surfaces. Underproductive snow (doesn't stick to paved surfaces) is kinda like a foul HR in baseball. They both look great in the air and falling but fail eventually which makes the final product null and void...

33F

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23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Oh, believe me I know, that's why I took the "under". I don't count snow in my yearly total which doesn't stick to paved surfaces. Underproductive snow (doesn't stick to paved surfaces) is kinda like a foul HR in baseball. They both look great in the air and falling but fail eventually which makes the final product null and void...

33F

What's the equivalent in snow for Richie Ashburn hitting the same fan twice (with 2 separate foul balls) in the same at bat? I think most Phillies fans know that story even if it is from 1957. Pretty funny, since she survived it. They were carrying her away on a stretcher when he hit her the second time (there was a game delay while they attended to her after the 1st one).

Eta - here's a possibility, Feb. 5th and 9th, 2010?

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7 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

What's the equivalent in snow for Richie Ashburn hitting the same fan twice (with 2 separate foul balls) in the same at bat? I think most Phillies fans know that story even if it is from 1957. Pretty funny, since she survived it. They were carrying her away on a stretcher when he hit her the second time (there was a game delay while they attended to her after the 1st one).

Eta - here's a possibility, Feb. 5th and 9th, 2010?

I don't think there's a equivalent to Ashburn pegging the woman twice on back-back pitches although Feb 5 and 9th would be the closest I can think of also. Broke her nose on the first foul and broke a bone in her leg while being taken away on a stretcher on the next pitch. Man, that's just nuts...we would need two 30"+ blizzards within a week to even come close.

36F

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17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm hugging the NAM idgaf 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_23.png

LOL  The Euro & GFS have a similar "double low" thing going but the Euro has less than half the precip that the NAM shows, but is midway between the NAM and GFS's whiff.

I think something is going to happen but it's dependent on whatever antecedent snow might make it to the ground before the larger system gears up.

 

floop-ecmwf_full-2022021106.sn10_acc.us_ma-6z-feb13-14-storm-02112022.gif

floop-gfs-2022021106.sn10_acc.us_ma-6z-feb13-14-storm-02112022.gif

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