Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: They're not really doing that well either. You could probably predict 1-2" for the local burbs/Tri state area and C-1" for the far burbs/Lehigh Valley. Nothing big either way. Bottom line this appears to be another annoying storm w/minor accumulations if any at all... 51F Thats an ens means qpf sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I think the north stream vort is going to pick the ocean low up sling it to Boston again and Cape May up the coast does well. Seasonal trend ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18z NAM look good at range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 ECM has gone toaster bath post the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I need that warmup with rain all the way up into VT next Thursday to GTFO!! Heading to Okemo next Friday for a short weekend ski trip with my son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said: What is DT seeing that the models are not? Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture. 17m · SUNDAY 90% of the MID ATLANTIC ( and southern New England) WILL SEE SNOW... with accumulations .... more later And the 10% who won’t see snow live in the SEPA snow hole (you know who you are). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Congrats Delaware and extreme S NJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Congrats Delaware and extreme S NJ: Winter is over after this weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6z GFS looks to be doing some cold frontal-type snow and then brushes S. Jersey whereas the 6z NAM is inland much of the time and does a rain/mix --> snow thing (6z Euro is still running at post time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6z EC sortof did the same thing as the GFS... And as an obs, I bottomed out at 32 this morning but rebounded up to a current partly sunny and 39 with dp 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 this wildfire condition is only going to get worse as the month goes on. The snow hole and drought conditions continue. Last weeks heavy rain only served to temporarily wet the litter floor and flood the local streams with very little ground/soil water recharge since the soils were tightly frozen. The base flows in the creek will start to rapidly fall in the next few weeks as water usage continues to rise. However, the soil horizon is starting to thaw out in the last few days as soil temps finally rise. We really need a stationary front over us for a week with lows riding up the front to put a dent in this drought condition . I just do see that chance with this progressive pattern that is for sure. .FIRE WEATHER... An unseasonably mild day is expected today, with highs mostly in the 50s. Following a midday to early afternoon frontal passage, dew point and RH values are likely to drop this afternoon. Minimum RH values of 35 to 40 percent are expected across most of central and southern New Jersey, far southeast PA, and Delmarva. In addition, as a dry cold front moves through today, winds will become breezy, with westerly gusts near 30 mph expected. This combination could lead to a modestly elevated risk of wildfire spread this afternoon, mainly south of the I-78 corridor where there is no snow cover in place. Fairly similar temperature, wind, and RH conditions are expected on Friday, though that day should not be quite as breezy with southwesterly gusts up to 25 mph. The combination of marginal RH values and fuels not having had much time to dry following recent precipitation should preclude a need for any Special Weather Statements. However, we will be coordinating with state partners and will monitor for any changes. https://www.drought.gov/location/18062 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Winter was over after last weekend Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, Albedoman said: this wildfire condition is only going to get worse as the month goes on. The snow hole and drought conditions continue. Last weeks heavy rain only served to temporarily wet the litter floor and flood the local streams with very little ground/soil water recharge since the soils were tightly frozen. The base flows in the creek will start to rapidly fall in the next few weeks as water usage continues to rise. However, the soil horizon is starting to thaw out in the last few days as soil temps finally rise. We really need a stationary front over us for a week with lows riding up the front to put a dent in this drought condition . I just do see that chance with this progressive pattern that is for sure. .FIRE WEATHER... An unseasonably mild day is expected today, with highs mostly in the 50s. Following a midday to early afternoon frontal passage, dew point and RH values are likely to drop this afternoon. Minimum RH values of 35 to 40 percent are expected across most of central and southern New Jersey, far southeast PA, and Delmarva. In addition, as a dry cold front moves through today, winds will become breezy, with westerly gusts near 30 mph expected. This combination could lead to a modestly elevated risk of wildfire spread this afternoon, mainly south of the I-78 corridor where there is no snow cover in place. Fairly similar temperature, wind, and RH conditions are expected on Friday, though that day should not be quite as breezy with southwesterly gusts up to 25 mph. The combination of marginal RH values and fuels not having had much time to dry following recent precipitation should preclude a need for any Special Weather Statements. However, we will be coordinating with state partners and will monitor for any changes. https://www.drought.gov/location/18062 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 At the very least, I think most of the forum will see a period of light snow this weekend even if it likely won't amount to much or anything. Enjoy it, because it very well could be the last snow we see until next winter. GEFS and CFS weeklies are ugly with a strong PV until around mid march. By mid march, you really need a potent system and a lot of luck to produce a decent snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: this wildfire condition is only going to get worse as the month goes on. The snow hole and drought conditions continue. Last weeks heavy rain only served to temporarily wet the litter floor and flood the local streams with very little ground/soil water recharge since the soils were tightly frozen. The base flows in the creek will start to rapidly fall in the next few weeks as water usage continues to rise. However, the soil horizon is starting to thaw out in the last few days as soil temps finally rise. We really need a stationary front over us for a week with lows riding up the front to put a dent in this drought condition . I just do see that chance with this progressive pattern that is for sure. Good Lord...you have too much time on your hands. 48F 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: At the very least, I think most of the forum will see a period of light snow this weekend even if it likely won't amount to much or anything. Enjoy it, because it very well could be the last snow we see until next winter. GEFS and CFS weeklies are ugly with a strong PV until around mid march. By mid march, you really need a potent system and a lot of luck to produce a decent snowstorm. At the very least we'll have cold weather for the SB with clouds and possibly a little snow. Imagine if the SB fell on Sat instead w/temps in the mid/upper 50s w/sun, that would suck! Certainly not football weather... 47F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 12z ICON is a 15-18 hour storm, snows all day on Sunday into sunday night, haven't seen the snow total maps but it's got to be 6-10" from upper bucks/montco S and E. Only problem is that it's the ICON showing this...blind squirrel has got to find a nut once in awhile right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 I blinked, but I think the 12z GFS had a blue pixel over us for a few seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: That's the @hazwoper nightmare storm. Don't rub it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Still in the market for snow for the next 2 months or so, but as someone who spends a lot of time outside, I am enjoying this spring preview right now. Hit the firewood lotto a couple of weeks ago, a neighbor behind the woods out back had some trees taken down and I arranged for the tree people to leave some behind, including oak, hotdiggitydog! A little disturbing that a lot of oaks seem to be biting the dust though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Watching Glenn during his 11am broadcast, his top 3 priorities currently: 1. Will Simmons get traded by the 3pm NBA trade deadline? 2. The Super Bowl 3. The lame ass weekend event which will melt and not cause any impact 53F/ Some solid (25mph+) wind gust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: this wildfire condition is only going to get worse as the month goes on. The snow hole and drought conditions continue. Last weeks heavy rain only served to temporarily wet the litter floor and flood the local streams with very little ground/soil water recharge since the soils were tightly frozen. The base flows in the creek will start to rapidly fall in the next few weeks as water usage continues to rise. However, the soil horizon is starting to thaw out in the last few days as soil temps finally rise. We really need a stationary front over us for a week with lows riding up the front to put a dent in this drought condition . I just do see that chance with this progressive pattern that is for sure. . No such drought worries here in Chester County with above normal January and February precipitation so far this year! Ground is sopping wet where not frozen YTD w.e. = 5.23" normal thru yesterday 4.65" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: At the very least we'll have cold weather for the SB with clouds and possibly a little snow. Imagine if the SB fell on Sat instead w/temps in the mid/upper 50s w/sun, that would suck! Certainly not football weather... 47F Heatwave going on in California to boot! Sortof like the training camp time of year. 27 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: That's the @hazwoper nightmare storm. Don't rub it in! Drought buster! For the weekend - 12z GFS seems to be "seeing" some kind of other low out there and does a slide, although tossing some pity flakes back over the area. The NAM outright shows 2 different systems for a double whammy. Currently up to 52 now with dp 30 and lots of cumulus that I haven't seen in awhile. Have mainly had cirrus the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Good Lord...you have too much time on your hands. 48F He reminds me of the guy in Aliens who kept shouting, "That's it, game over man, game over!!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: At the very least, I think most of the forum will see a period of light snow this weekend even if it likely won't amount to much or anything. Enjoy it, because it very well could be the last snow we see until next winter. GEFS and CFS weeklies are ugly with a strong PV until around mid march. By mid march, you really need a potent system and a lot of luck to produce a decent snowstorm. Its over. Huge hemispheric push of warmth coming to the Arctic circle by the 20th as per the mid atl thread. Good luck re-establishing the cold air source. Im not even so sure PA sees a flake this weekend tbh....it is slipping away completely on most guidance. But I do agree finally, the blinds look like they are about to shut. Modoki Nino next year ftmfw!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: 12z ICON is a 15-18 hour storm, snows all day on Sunday into sunday night, haven't seen the snow total maps but it's got to be 6-10" from upper bucks/montco S and E. Only problem is that it's the ICON showing this...blind squirrel has got to find a nut once in awhile right?? ICON sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 You know things are bleak when even Anthony in the NYC forum is ready to pull the plug on winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: He reminds me of the guy in Aliens who kept shouting, "That's it, game over man, game over!!" Yep, so true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: You know things are bleak when even Anthony in the NYC forum is ready to pull the plug on winter. Bring on severe season....I surrender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, JTA66 said: You know things are bleak when even Anthony in the NYC forum is ready to pull the plug on winter. Not only that but he's a huge Mets fan w/a MLB strike going on....possible bridge jumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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