The Iceman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Unlike years past, we have basically all of Canada below normal temps, so plenty of cold air hanging out to the N. If Canada were void of cold, pretty easy to figure out things are bleak. But with all of that cold air still around, I really dont think we are done yet. Whether its next weekend, the PD weekend, or maybe sometime in March, we are going to have at least one more trackable large event. That cold air need to go somewhere...hopefully it continues getting funneled into the lower 48. There's really 2 camps for where that cold air wants to be dumped on the ensembles. The GEFS keeps the pac ridge along or just off the pacific coast through late month which would funnel it over the midwest into our area keeping us in the game but just needing some luck. GEPS/EPS/CMC-E all retrograde that ridge off the coast of the pacific and funnel the cold air into the west in which case means SE ridge for our area and early spring. GEFS has done pretty well long term this year but it's hard not to be pessimistic when all of the other guidance is pointing in the wrong direction. All going to depend on who is right with the MJO progression. A shift into 4 pretty much closes the blinds late month though it get's a little less hostile come March. Hope you're right that we get one more trackable event. Those of us in SE PA are really only 1 warning level event away from touching normal, I hope we can get there. A 2nd year Moderate-borderline strong Nina, that finishes with >20" of snow would pretty be abnormal. Honestly heading into the winter I said if I get into double digits, I'd be pretty content. We got there plus saw a warning level event and a high end advisory event so things definitely could be much worse like up in the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Unlike years past, we have basically all of Canada below normal temps, so plenty of cold air hanging out to the N. If Canada were void of cold, pretty easy to figure out things are bleak. But with all of that cold air still around, I really dont think we are done yet. Whether its next weekend, the PD weekend, or maybe sometime in March, we are going to have at least one more trackable large event. That cold air need to go somewhere...hopefully it continues getting funneled into the lower 48. This vs This Will determine our fate late month. Neither is particularly a classic look but we could still score something with the GEFS due to the cold air lurking nearby. If that gets dumped into the west like the other ensembles it's a shut the blinds look until March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, The Iceman said: There's really 2 camps for where that cold air wants to be dumped on the ensembles. The GEFS keeps the pac ridge along or just off the pacific coast through late month which would funnel it over the midwest into our area keeping us in the game but just needing some luck. GEPS/EPS/CMC-E all retrograde that ridge off the coast of the pacific and funnel the cold air into the west in which case means SE ridge for our area and early spring. GEFS has done pretty well long term this year but it's hard not to be pessimistic when all of the other guidance is pointing in the wrong direction. All going to depend on who is right with the MJO progression. A shift into 4 pretty much closes the blinds late month though it get's a little less hostile come March. Hope you're right that we get one more trackable event. Those of us in SE PA are really only 1 warning level event away from touching normal, I hope we can get there. A 2nd year Moderate-borderline strong Nina, that finishes with >20" of snow would pretty be abnormal. Honestly heading into the winter I said if I get into double digits, I'd be pretty content. We got there plus saw a warning level event and a high end advisory event so things definitely could be much worse like up in the Lehigh Valley. yep those pity flakes keep on falling. As I said before - Presidents day for the win. I see it on the models runs as they are choking on it now. They will get their act together in the next five days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 33 minutes ago, Albedoman said: yep those pity flakes keep on falling. As I said before - Presidents day for the win. I see it on the models runs as they are choking on it now. They will get their act together in the next five days No candy coating it our winter sucks. Need 19" to normal or another late February through early April early spring performance like 2018 to salvage numbers, or end with 1976 cold futility. It was oh so close to being a good one post December but the eastern North America trough was slightly too far east thus the big AC to NYC coastal score zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Another winter lacking clippers despite a strong arctic PV vortex delivering cold they tracked north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 An unusual elongated and strong polar vortex winter, is was cold because the elongation axis pointed in this direction. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-polar-vortex-unusual-weather-united-states-cold-forecast-pattern-fa/?fbclid=IwAR0oP-cuSyYz9wRLePS7_FOSefiTgn_UF_ghg0J4PPr4DpGjJlN2zLIGaYQ Trend should be milder times to close out February and the month of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 hours ago, RedSky said: An unusual elongated and strong polar vortex winter, is was cold because the elongation axis pointed in this direction. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-polar-vortex-unusual-weather-united-states-cold-forecast-pattern-fa/?fbclid=IwAR0oP-cuSyYz9wRLePS7_FOSefiTgn_UF_ghg0J4PPr4DpGjJlN2zLIGaYQ Trend should be milder times to close out February and the month of March. I hope so, I'm ready to put this one in the past and move on to fishing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 give me the 70's and sunshine now. Time for night time t storms to track. This winter appears to be a huge letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Time to start my lettuce plants inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Dropped down to 31 as a low this morning with some freezing fog/mist but as soon as it started getting light, the fog dissipated. Currently sunny with some scattered cirrus and 37 with dp 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 roads were not at all good this am here in the burbs. super icing and not treated in many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Bust out the suntan lotion Saturday!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 I'm not giving up on Sun night/Monday yet. ICON is a shitty model yes, but it shows how we can potentially win with this system. You look at 500 MB and the globals are all over the place with timing of both the NS and SS energy. This could be one that sneaks up inside 4 days as data is better sampled. Need that NS system to dig more like the ICON and the CMC to an extent. And need the SS to not hang back like the ICON. It's a fragile set up as Ralph would say because there is no blocking but there is still room for a snowy outcome. At the very least, may be able to score 1-2" on the N stream energy alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Beautiful day across the now snow less hills of Chester County....getting ready for the record elevation driven March wet snow event that will get my area to normal snow totals for the season. It will no doubt happen the week of March 12th when I head down to Florida for Phillies (or not) Spring Training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: Beautiful day across the now snow less hills of Chester County....getting ready for the record elevation driven March wet snow event that will get my area to normal snow totals for the season. It will no doubt happen the week of March 12th when I head down to Florida for Phillies (or not) Spring Training. Pipe dream. May as well go to the mountains where you have a better chance at a late season snow... 35F/Breezy at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Pipe dream. May as well go to the mountains where you have a better chance at a late season snow... 35F/Breezy at times It's like Morgantown (6 miles up the road from here) 1958 all over again - 50" in 1 day while Philly gets white rain....stay tuned - LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 hours ago, ChescoWx said: It's like Morgantown (6 miles up the road from here) 1958 all over again - 50" in 1 day while Philly gets white rain....stay tuned - LOL!!! Well to be accurate, Philly did get 11.4" of "white rain" in that storm! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Well to be accurate, Philly did get 11.4" of "white rain" in that storm! …And historic flooding ensued! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 If this turns into another NJ shore special, I might consider moving across the river to the Garden State: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If this turns into another NJ shore special, I might consider moving across the river to the Garden State: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Why not it’s Miller Time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If this turns into another NJ shore special, I might consider moving across the river to the Garden State: Nah just plan your surf fishing trips accordingly. And post vids of course! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: long live that fricking donut hole. WE take this in the LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 MA subforum going a little nuts over the 6z GFS....< 5% that happens. I'll be happy w/the cold blast Sunday, Superbowl, wings, beer and hopefully some snow showers... 25F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 hours ago, Albedoman said: long live that fricking donut hole. WE take this in the LV Euro and ICON keep the seasonal trend...NJ shore special, LV fringed. Delicate setup here all about timing of shortwaves. We are relying on forcing between the NS and stj late phase to throw precip into the region. I think we run the risk of this escaping quickly without any blocking much like the other systems this year. If we r going to get a flush warning level hit, we need a deeper dig in the NS, the stj sw needs to go negative by the Miss River or neutral at very best, and things need to slow down. There is time but need to see corrections over the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Well to be accurate, Philly did get 11.4" of "white rain" in that storm! We should never let facts in in the way of a good story....but the spirit is a lot of snow got lost without elevation to the dreaded white rain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 6z Euro moving toward GFS....for what it's worth with the potential SB/Valentines event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Agreed. Not that it's the same up top, but for now seems like best case end result will be a lesser version of 1/28-29 to these novice eyes. Again lots of moving parts and interactions that won't start to be well-modeled until tomorrow imo. Who do we have to speak to in order to get some blocking?! Is this still from our winter-for-Super Bowl sacrifices from '17-18? (Worth it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: We should never let facts in in the way of a good story....but the spirit is a lot of snow got lost without elevation to the dreaded white rain!! https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/spring-marks-anniversary-of-50-inch-snowstorm-in-pennsylvania/2010478/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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