The Iceman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You are punting our peak climo and snowiest month on Feb 3? Gutsy call. Good luck with that. MJO heads out of the cod and into phase 4 by mid month, good luck getting snow with that. There aren’t any real true threats up through mid month on the ensembles with the AO and NAO firmly positive despite the cold air delivery source from the -EPO and western ridge. Anything that amplifies will cut west and anything weaker will be shunted and sheared out south. Maybe we get lucky and one of these shortwaves in the southern and northern streams time together just right like the tues/weds “threat” but Nina February’s are historically warm and snowless for a reason. Once we lose the western ridge as the MJO heads into phase 4, I expect we are above normal the 2nd half of the month. Maybe punt was the wrong word as I suppose we could score a surprise advisory level snow from a northern stream dominant system while we have the -EPO/+PNA but I do not see anything worth honking about right now and the pattern is only going to get worse as the month progresses. If you see a time frame that you like, feel free to shout it out, outside of maybe a flukey advisory level system, I don’t see diddly but cold and dry until the western ridge breaks down and temps warm up. We really needed at least transient AO/NAO help the first half of the month and right now I’m not seeing it. Give me some reasons to have hope Ralph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Give me some reasons to have hope Ralph. He already did. It’s the beginning of February. All of the other stuff you posted, for the most part, is based on current modeling. Modeling, which I might add, has been dreadful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: I agree with Iceman. This has been the mother of donut holes for the LV. The LV has been screwed every way it can in this pattern, north south east and west and every model today continued to show the continuation of that fricking donut hole in s central pa in the 10-15 day models. I will hope for a Presidents day storm event because that is all I see right now. GFS and many of the GEFS ens members say mother nature has a way of averaging/balancing things out and to wait until after mid month before even considering writing Feb/winter off. This has been "on the radar" and quite a vigorous signal for a LR lead time for a few days now....consistently: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 And before anyone says ^^ it's too far West, its a fragile setup, etc keep in mind this is 10 days away and might vanish completely let alone be too tucked. Point is, dont take verbatim but know thay chances are still showing and we aren't in a close the blinds pattern by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and many of the GEFS ens members say mother nature has a way of averaging/balancing things out and to wait until after mid month before even considering writing Feb/winter off. This has been "on the radar" and quite a vigorous signal for a LR lead time for a few days now....consistently: 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: And before anyone says ^^ it's too far West, its a fragile setup, etc keep in mind this is 10 days away and might vanish completely let alone be too tucked. Point is, dont take verbatim but know thay chances are still showing and we aren't in a close the blinds pattern by any means. It's a lock. 1-2ft region wide. Screenshot this post. Enjoy your rainy evening there is one big one before spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, _AR_ said: It's a lock. 1-2ft region wide. Screenshot this post. Enjoy your rainy evening there is one big one before spring. I was begging to say that. 10 days out on the GFS is just complete fantasyland at this point. GFS has been pushing back these storms every five days. I still think the Presidents day maybe promising before the next major pattern change and hoping the AO tanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 53 minutes ago, Albedoman said: 10 days out on the GFS is just complete fantasyland at this point. 3 hours ago, Albedoman said: ...every model today continued to show the continuation of that fricking donut hole in s central pa in the 10-15 day models. So which one is it? You agree with Iceman to punt Feb based on the "10-15 day models" or is 10 days out complete fantasyland? Not following your reasoning tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Ok, here we go. Warm front winning the battle (for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So which one is it? You agree with Iceman to punt Feb based on the "10-15 day models" or is 10 days out complete fantasyland? Not following your reasoning tbh. I know you've been following weather for a long time but to think/follow any model 11 days out IMO is a waste of time if thinking fantasyland. Could it happen? Sure. But I would put odds on a limited event/bust. I could do better things w/my time. I'll grab interest if it's within 3-4 days of the storm but sure as hell not following for 10+ days. I'm more w/Iceman thinking this month will pretty much suck. Yeah, maybe a little event or two and no super torch then we ease into March where I really lose interest. Again, good stuff could happen (and I hope) but I would bet against it and we'll just go ho-hum into Spring and then dreaded Summer. Temps climbing/47F 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: this is how I feel with the models: So which one is it? You agree with Iceman to punt Feb based on the "10-15 day models" or is 10 days out complete fantasyland? Not following your reasoning tbh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 54 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I know you've been following weather for a long time but to think/follow any model 11 days out IMO is a waste of time if thinking fantasyland. Could it happen? Sure. But I would put odds on a limited event/bust. I could do better things w/my time. I'll grab interest if it's within 3-4 days of the storm but sure as hell not following for 10+ days. I'm more w/Iceman thinking this month will pretty much suck. Yeah, maybe a little event or two and no super torch then we ease into March where I really lose interest. Again, good stuff could happen (and I hope) but I would bet against it and we'll just go ho-hum into Spring and then dreaded Summer. Temps climbing/47F The same goes with thinking a model showing warm and rain in the long term is correct. Again, it’s February and climo favors cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, hazwoper said: He already did. It’s the beginning of February. All of the other stuff you posted, for the most part, is based on current modeling. Modeling, which I might add, has been dreadful. Ok lets throw out the current modeling because it “sucks” so let’s talk climatology since that’s basically Ralph’s main reason for not giving up hope since it’s “climatologically our snowiest month”. Of the top 25 largest Feb snowstorms that have occurred in Philadelphia history since 1950(since that’s all ENSO data goes back) how many of them occurred in a 2nd year moderate-borderline strong Nina? 0. What was the largest individual snowstorm in Philadelphia in those said years? 3.6”. All of those years were below normal average February in snowfall. Saying “oh feb isn’t over basically only because it is Feb. 3rd and it’s climatologically our snowiest month” is disingenuous without factoring in ENSO. Hey I like snow, hope we see a good threat come into the picture and that the models are wrong and the +PNA/-EPO stays around all month plus we get the transient blocking required for our huge snowstorms… but I don’t know why I’m getting sass for basically stating what historically happens in a 2nd year medium-strong Nina’s and the models now showing those very outcomes short and long term. Every threat will be “fragile” as Ralph says because we have no blocking. We know how “fragile” set up’s work 9 times out of 10 in these parts. It isn’t a close the blinds look because of the cold lurking nearby(for now), but it also isn’t an ideal pattern for warning level events by any stretch of the imagination and the pattern as currently modeled only degrades as we head into mid month which is typical of Nina climatology, especially in 2nd year Nina’s. As I said above, an advisory level event wouldn’t surprise me, but odds are against a warning level February snowstorm for the Philadelphia metro area and average monthly snowfall as it looks right now. Hopefully the models do a 180 and we see some blocking show up and I’m wrong and everyone ends up above average on the month. It’s a weather board meant for discussing long term prospects, sorry for sharing my opinion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Picked up 0.37" of rain so far today. Current temp 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Ok lets throw out the current modeling because it “sucks” so let’s talk climatology since that’s basically Ralph’s main reason for not giving up hope since it’s “climatologically our snowiest month”. Of the top 25 largest Feb snowstorms that have occurred in Philadelphia history since 1950(since that’s all ENSO data goes back) how many of them occurred in a 2nd year moderate-borderline strong Nina? 0. What was the largest individual snowstorm in Philadelphia in those said years? 3.6”. All of those years were below normal average February in snowfall. Saying “oh feb isn’t over basically only because it is Feb. 3rd and it’s climatologically our snowiest month” is disingenuous without factoring in ENSO. Hey I like snow, hope we see a good threat come into the picture and that the models are wrong and the +PNA/-EPO stays around all month plus we get the transient blocking required for our huge snowstorms… but I don’t know why I’m getting sass for basically stating what historically happens in a 2nd year medium-strong Nina’s and the models now showing those very outcomes short and long term. Every threat will be “fragile” as Ralph says because we have no blocking. We know how “fragile” set up’s work 9 times out of 10 in these parts. It isn’t a close the blinds look because of the cold lurking nearby(for now), but it also isn’t an ideal pattern for warning level events by any stretch of the imagination and the pattern as currently modeled only degrades as we head into mid month which is typical of Nina climatology, especially in 2nd year Nina’s. As I said above, an advisory level event wouldn’t surprise me, but odds are against a warning level February snowstorm for the Philadelphia metro area and average monthly snowfall as it looks right now. Hopefully the models do a 180 and we see some blocking show up and I’m wrong and everyone ends up above average on the month. It’s a weather board meant for discussing long term prospects, sorry for sharing my opinion. Why can't both be correct? Feb is our best shot for winter weather. And also, Nina winters just suck for us. It's hit or miss. Heck, I have over 1.5" of rain and it's 55°F right now. Winter's over, right? Models consistently show digital snow 10 days out. But Climo! Feh. This is a good discussion though. FWIW, I also hope you're wrong, @The Iceman. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Freezing at Williamsport, 53 degrees at my house. Wow, talk about a warm tongue of air? 150 miles makes a big difference. Its too bad we are on the wrong side all the time this year. I am glad we got some rain even though it just ponding on the surface ready to freeze solid by tomorrow night. The creeks are slightly out of their banks but that is because it is 100% runoff on frozen soils. It seems the rainfall and snow fall are useless right now except for the trout streams.. One thing I can really say however, the ski resorts are taking a royal ass kicking tonight. Many will probably shut down many trails early if the Valentines day storm chances busts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Agreed, we are just discussing. Thanks Iceman for the stats above. I said it way back in Nov and I am sticking to it. The odds for a larger storm this year are higher than normal. Solar min lag finally caught up, record widespread cold to the N in Canada and Siberia, a locked in EPO ridge and CPF at times. These are some of the things which make me believe Feb will pull a wild card storm. For the life of me I cannot see N and W burbs ending this much BN in snowfall. Maybe BN overall at the end still, but with all that cold around still, we are in a good spot. Late year Nina often show decent Atl blocking like we saw way back in the beginning of the year. Sandwich of a +NAO inbetween -NAO phases. If we had a puke PAC and we were going into the 2nd week of Feb and Canada was void of cold air, the we are probably closing the blinds and canceling winter. That stuff takes weeks to recover. There have already been several larger storms....some off the coast, some hitting S and E, some hitting New England. Yes, progressive systems so no KU yet. But if blocking in the Atl does pop up which I feel it should based on the pattern progression, odds for 1 or 2 more larger systems exists. But even with the lack of a big ticket storm or even a KU if blocking shows up, we aren't done just yet. To get where many have gotten this year in a Nina is extraordinary. I think we are all going to share in that soon. But to that. I also understand where some folks are at. Frustrating being BN and seeing other areas repeatedly getting pounded and near or AN. Nature has a keen way of balancing out. Keep the cold air source and the parade of vorts with the TPV on our side of the hemispheric near Baffin Bay and I will take my chances with all else factored in attm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Temp has risen to 52 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Warm air is winning the early rounds here in Berks. The temp has risen 14 degrees since 9 p.m. to the current 57. The freezing rain advisory kicks in a few hours, lol. I suspect that will disappear before ever going into effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 55f/dp54 just 1.5 hrs away in Scranton it’s 30f crazy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 How is it 55F? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: How is it 55F? It's 55F here and 54F in Quakertown...Philly probably gets to upper 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 30F/Frz rain State College, and 37F Harrisburg. Colder air on the move.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 The twenty foot wide drift outside is still holding 9" deep lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: It's 55F here and 54F in Quakertown...Philly probably gets to upper 50's. Right now 34 here in Tamaqua and 57 in Reading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: Right now 34 here in Tamaqua and 57 in Reading... That's an impressive difference for being not that far away from each other... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Ended up with 0.43" of rain yesterday with a non-diurnal high of 51 around 11:30 pm last night. Have 0.20" additional rain this morning (total 0.63 for the 2-day event) with current temp 54 and dp the same. Am in a brief precipitation lull at the moment with scattered returns nearby on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 I'm at 1.9" of rain so far. I'm going to have a legit skating rink in my back yard when the freeze hits. Currently 38°F, down from a high of 55. Look at that crash, almost 20° in ~1.5 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sibbley Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2.13 inches of rain so far. Back to 38F, shot up to 51F about 4AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Currently 56F and light drizzle, that warm tongue was definitely stronger than progged and I kind of expected that last night as I heard some wind gusts outside. Euro verifying actually pretty well right now wrt ice. GFS was way overdone with the progression of cold air. Pretty crazy gradient going on right now though, looks like close to a 20 degree drop 30 miles away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 At 4am I was at 55f now sit at 36f at 7am she’s a dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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