The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 FWIW the meso model's are also in agreement with the GFS with some being even quicker to bring in the cold air right now. That's a bit concerning. They will be more useful at 00z though as most of them are at range right when they show the temp crash and tend to overdue the cold in these situations from what I remember in past events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12z Euro is doing like the Canadian but even more so - basically just drying the precip up once it gets down to the metro Philly are with just a little mix at the end. Am currently up to 41 now with dp 37. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Like if this comes to fruition, then there would be major icing concerns despite the daylight and warm temps leading into the changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Really 2 camps right now, you have the GFS/Meso Models bringing the cold air in faster and more dramatically(low to mid 20's as precip falls) vs CMC/Euro/NAM that are slower with the cold air and less intense(Upper 20's/low 30's). Who will come out on top? Those 2 solutions are vastly different outcomes wrt icing potential. I am leaning in the CMC/Euro/Nam camp right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NWS blend is not enthused with the icing potential really anywhere outside of NE PA: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Like if this comes to fruition, then there would be major icing concerns despite the daylight and warm temps leading into the changeover. I think that is based off the GFS (its next generation). The 12z 3k NAM does show a bit of icing over the metro area before drying it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18z NAM colder and more GFS like. Not quite as fast with the cold air arriving but definitely sped things up from 12z, however the intensity of the cold is still nothing like the GFS/Meso's. 3km NAM also not quite as cold. Also FWIW, the long range HRRR is very warm, basically all rain even up towards the lehigh valley. Pocono's though get a devastating ice storm on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: 18z NAM colder and more GFS like. Not quite as fast with the cold air arriving but definitely sped things up from 12z, however the intensity of the cold is still nothing like the GFS/Meso's. 3km NAM also not quite as cold. Also FWIW, the long range HRRR is very warm, basically all rain even up towards the lehigh valley. Pocono's though get a devastating ice storm on it. FWIW, Mt Holly will likely have egg on its face by Friday evening. No way in hell do you issue winter storm watches for Carbon and Monroe in this current situation and not include the LV. You live by the model, you die by the model. The NAM has a known warm bias in this range and they should already know this. The GFS cold should not be ignored and the Euro/HRRR still have no idea on to handle this storm event. Physical Geography plays a huge part in this current situation and anyone who lives between the S Mts (the fall line) and Blue Mts will see ice. 30+ years of historical weather/ geography experience is telling me how this will unfold in this situation. The fall line plays a big part, plain and simple. We will most likely go a winter storm warning issued on Friday afternoon, too late IMHO. The sad thing there are going to be a ton of accidents, especially on the untreated roads because drivers simply ignore advisories and heed warnings and watches. You cannot stop four wheel vehicles on flash frozen surfaces and the drivers in our area have not seen this possibility in many years. The other sad issue is that ice accumulation under .25 inch does not affect most properties or damages trees. However .25 to .5 inch of freezing rain on a flash frozen road surface will kill people. Its time to be proactive and not reactive. By the time they issue a warning, the roads will be full of drivers, especially trucks. The trees however will still be standing. This is is not my first time seeing this scenario unfold. A simple winter storm watch would have sufficed. No body hurt. Enough warning to get people off the roads by Friday evening. Sorry for the rant 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, Albedoman said: FWIW, Mt Holly will likely have egg on its face by Friday evening. No way in hell do you issue winter storm watches for Carbon and Monroe in this current situation and not include the LV. You live by the model, you die by the model. The NAM has a known warm bias in this range and they should already know this. The GFS cold should not be ignored and the Euro/HRRR still have no idea on to handle this storm event. Physical Geography plays a huge part in this current situation and anyone who lives between the S Mts (the fall line) and Blue Mts will see ice. 30+ years of historical weather/ geography experience is telling me how this will unfold in this situation. The fall line plays a big part, plain and simple. We will most likely go a winter storm warning issued on Friday afternoon, too late IMHO. The sad thing there are going to be a ton of accidents, especially on the untreated roads because drivers simply ignore advisories and heed warnings and watches. You cannot stop four wheel vehicles on flash frozen surfaces and the drivers in our area have not seen this possibility in many years. The other sad issue is that ice accumulation under .25 inch does not affect most properties or damages trees. However .25 to .5 inch of freezing rain on a flash frozen road surface will kill people. Its time to be proactive and not reactive. By the time they issue a warning, the roads will be full of drivers, especially trucks. The trees however will still be standing. This is is not my first time seeing this scenario unfold. A simple winter storm watch would have sufficed. No body hurt. Enough warning to get people off the roads by Friday evening. Sorry for the rant I think since the timing of that event is not until later tomorrow, the more immediate concern for any travel is the Dense fog and thus the advisory that goes into effect tonight (including the LV where Carbon and Monroe are not under that) - Quote Dense Fog Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 321 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 NJZ001-007>009-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-030930- /O.NEW.KPHI.FG.Y.0003.220203T0500Z-220203T1200Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh- Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 321 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. Near zero visibility possible at times. * WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Fog will generally overspread the advisory area from southeast to northwest. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. && $$ JEO Once they are closer to the winter weather event, they can loft a short-fused Advisory where necessary. This keeps the immediate hazards sequential. The icing event verbatim from the colder GFS (18z) doesn't appear to start until the early commute time where the fog will already be pretty rough by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 If that is indeed their concern, that is understandable. Thanks but Carbon and Monroe are under the fog advisory too? It comes down that Mt Holly really are still not sure on total ice accumulations. The confidence levels are not high for reaching winter warning ice accumulation levels but it is the flash freeze that changes the ball game. Thats my entire point and it should warrant at least a winter storm watch with mentioning in the watch that they are unsure of ice accumulations. . They can always drop it later periods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6abc 6pm ice map. Personally I think it will be minor unless you go far N/W... 38/light fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Albedoman said: If that is indeed their concern, that is understandable. Thanks but Carbon and Monroe are under the fog advisory too? It comes down that Mt Holly really are still not sure on total ice accumulations. The confidence levels are not high for reaching winter warning ice accumulation levels but it is the flash freeze that changes the ball game. Thats my entire point and it should warrant at least a winter storm watch with mentioning in the watch that they are unsure of ice accumulations. . They can always drop it later periods. Digging around the point-and-click up that way, those Winter Storm Watches are underneath the Dense Fog advisories and the ones "visible" further north were issued by NY (Binghamton FO). Since they are further north of you, they would get the icing a bit earlier and they are not set to go into effect until "late Thursday". The "flash freeze" afterwards may be something that impacts much of the area including down here in Philly metro, and it might be easier to do a wider Advisory when that time comes. Am thinking a couple more runs might help get the models into more agreement regarding the timing of the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Made it up to 46 today and it has clouded up and is 40 with dp 37. There is some fleeting stuff that has been appearing on the radar the past couple hours. 18z Euro still keeping it rain down in the Philly metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Albedoman said: FWIW, Mt Holly will likely have egg on its face by Friday evening. No way in hell do you issue winter storm watches for Carbon and Monroe in this current situation and not include the LV. You live by the model, you die by the model. The NAM has a known warm bias in this range and they should already know this. The GFS cold should not be ignored and the Euro/HRRR still have no idea on to handle this storm event. Physical Geography plays a huge part in this current situation and anyone who lives between the S Mts (the fall line) and Blue Mts will see ice. 30+ years of historical weather/ geography experience is telling me how this will unfold in this situation. The fall line plays a big part, plain and simple. We will most likely go a winter storm warning issued on Friday afternoon, too late IMHO. The sad thing there are going to be a ton of accidents, especially on the untreated roads because drivers simply ignore advisories and heed warnings and watches. You cannot stop four wheel vehicles on flash frozen surfaces and the drivers in our area have not seen this possibility in many years. The other sad issue is that ice accumulation under .25 inch does not affect most properties or damages trees. However .25 to .5 inch of freezing rain on a flash frozen road surface will kill people. Its time to be proactive and not reactive. By the time they issue a warning, the roads will be full of drivers, especially trucks. The trees however will still be standing. This is is not my first time seeing this scenario unfold. A simple winter storm watch would have sufficed. No body hurt. Enough warning to get people off the roads by Friday evening. Sorry for the rant I respectfully disagree. I really don’t think it will be that severe. Even the gfs now has temps in the upper 20s/low 30s during most freezing rain and I just don’t think it will accrete after temps being in the 40s overnight with plain rain. By the time temps get into the mid 20s which you really would need for accretion, it looks to change over to a period of sleet. I’m just not seeing it but will admit if I am wrong. Also storms over by noon up in the Lehigh valley so I don’t think Friday night is much of a concern. If anything it would be Friday morning. I think Monroe/Pocono region is more at risk for severe ice and they are currently under a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I respectfully disagree. I really don’t think it will be that severe. Even the gfs now has temps in the upper 20s/low 30s during most freezing rain and I just don’t think it will accrete after temps being in the 40s overnight with plain rain. By the time temps get into the mid 20s which you really would need for accretion, it looks to change over to a period of sleet. I’m just not seeing it but will admit if I am wrong. Also storms over by noon up in the Lehigh valley so I don’t think Friday night is much of a concern. If anything it would be Friday morning. I think Monroe/Pocono region is more at risk for severe ice and they are currently under a watch. this is why I am concerned The surface temps are are way too cold and this is my proof. The rain and dense fog will not do anything as the it will be cloudy and fog sublimates the snow which affects the air temps and keeps the air much cooler. Weather model air temps do not accurately depict the entire picture of what the surface temps are. Many people will be surprised how quick the flash freeze will occur. This graph says it all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 ^You're a worrywart. If it's not a drought it's soil temp which is barely below freezing at 29F (and will rise overnight) and I don't drive my car to/from work on the soil/grass...worry about the fog more so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: ^You're a worrywart. If it's not a drought it's soil temp which is barely below freezing at 29F (and will rise overnight) and I don't drive my car to/from work on the soil/grass...worry about the fog more so. If the roads were icy that could be an option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: If the roads were icy that could be an option. Lol...possibly, in my younger years. My point is if soil is 29F (and will rise overnight/tomorrow)...the (black) roads hold the heat and are warmer. Most people don't give two hoots if the grass/trees get .1" of ice. All they care about is road conditions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 56 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Lol...possibly, in my younger years. My point is if soil is 29F (and will rise overnight/tomorrow)...the (black) roads hold the heat and are warmer. Most people don't give two hoots if the grass/trees get .1" of ice. All they care about is road conditions.. Yeah the whole setup is kind of unusual. Normally it's warm rain, then cold air coming in and rain changing to snow with maybe some sleet along the way. We usually get freezing rain from warm air coming in over antecedent cold air. Then there's the issue of how much precip will be left once the cold air gets here (for SEPA anyway). We should have a better idea of the details and timing by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Yeah the whole setup is kind of unusual. Normally it's warm rain, then cold air coming in and rain changing to snow with maybe some sleet along the way. We usually get freezing rain from warm air coming in over antecedent cold air. Then there's the issue of how much precip will be left once the cold air gets here (for SEPA anyway). We should have a better idea of the details and timing by tomorrow afternoon. From my experience, usually the cold takes longer to move in or the precip moves out quicker than expected...or the total screwjob, both. 38F/Fog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: From my experience, usually the cold takes longer to move in or the precip moves out quicker than expected...or the total screwjob, both. 38F/Fog 39 and fog here. The weather will be what it will be and we'll deal with it, I imagine. Debating whether to cover the snow pile tomorrow, lol. Probably should have done it today, the warm fog is eating it and the snowpack in general. Still mostly total coverage, but I'm pretty sure there won't be any left (snow pack) by Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Took a sick day today. Work can get along just fine without me for a day, and driving out there is nasty right now. Got 1/3 the way in and tapped out; apparently, reflective road markings haven't been in the budget for a while up here. Greasy roads + invisible lane markings + rain and heavy fog + reckless drivers + semis on the turnpike = yeah that's a big fat NOPE from me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Maybe things will be different in the Poconos, but down here it feels like our typical cold air chasing precip nonevent. Enjoy your day off, Mike! Light rain, 38F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Nice trends in the overnight model runs! Even if this occurs it's a non issue except for a tree branch somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I only remember one ice storm that happened and that was in 1994. the one most of us remember. Back in the seventies there was one that I recall, but only bus ride to high school. I remember the trees that had frozen glaze being highlighted by the sun, quite a remarkable sight. Ice storms are so rare, really doubted this ever verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I only remember one ice storm that happened and that was in 1994. the one most of us remember. Back in the seventies there was one that I recall, but only bus ride to high school. I remember the trees that had frozen glaze being highlighted by the sun, quite a remarkable sight. Ice storms are so rare, really doubted this ever verifying. We had one in 2014 I believe. Friends in Chester County were without power for nearly a week. But yes, we really need a CAD set up for ice around here which this isn’t. As Forky pointed out in the NYC forum, in our current set up, the Apps are acting like a dam slowing down the CAA into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: We had one in 2014 I believe. Friends in Chester County were without power for nearly a week. I remember there was one that I thought was 10 years ago but this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 These rain to ice events are super rare around SE PA. I only remember it once back in the 80s tbh. So not surprised in the least to see the threat fizzle to a huge nothingburger down this way. Slow times ahead on the ens. Maybe a calm before we get into a late winter roller coaster pattern? Or will we simply prove that dirty groundhog wrong with an early flip to spring? Been doing some deep research and looking ahead to the summer outlook and must say it is shaping up to be a scorcher where we kiss triple digits a handful of times. Get ready. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I only remember one ice storm that happened and that was in 1994. the one most of us remember. Back in the seventies there was one that I recall, but only bus ride to high school. I remember the trees that had frozen glaze being highlighted by the sun, quite a remarkable sight. Ice storms are so rare, really doubted this ever verifying. Back around 1977 was what I call the "glacial" year. I was in high school at the time riding 2 SEPTA buses to get to school and had to get off one of the bus lines ("H" bus) and walk to the top of the hill where the route ran at the time (since changed), and then get back on because the bus couldn't go up without sliding back down. There were also times when the bus never came and only finally showed up late or was detoured, and we had to find where to get on. That was the year of the layering (long johns, turtle necks, wool sweaters, double socks, puffy down jackets, and so forth). In fact, just found this from the Inky about that year - specifically January - https://www.inquirer.com/philly/blogs/weather/Very-Big-Chill-The-month-that-froze-Philly.html Quote Very Big Chill: The month that froze Philly January 1977 remains unmatched for cold in local records. by Tony Wood Published Jan 26, 2017 On this date 40 years ago, the temperature didn't get above freezing – and that ended up being the second-warmest day of the month. January 1977 went on to become the coldest month in Philadelphia's period of record, dating to 1874. All 31 days finished with below-normal temperatures, climaxing on the 17th, when the high was 8 and the low got down to 4 below zero. The average temperature was 31 degrees below the normal for the date. Cold was widespread across the county, straining energy supplies and locking ships in ice. "January was an extraordinary month weatherwise across the United States." -Monthly Weather Review — The monthly average temperature for January 1977 in Philadelphia, 20, set a standard for any month in the period of recordkeeping. I remember counting something like 17 ice storms in 1993 - 1994 (starting I think in December and going through to March). It was a nightmare but also agree that it is not a common event here (thankfully). One of those ice storms took down an old red cedar tree at my mother's house, between her property and her neighbor's (it had been there when we had moved there in 1968). It was at least 30ft tall and the way it was positioned, it uprooted and fell forward across the front, landing on the central walkway and some of the front hedges, and extended partway into the street. Luckily the way it fell, it was in between the parked cars. She also lost power during that storm. I think it's because Philly metro is "relatively close" to the ocean when compared to some of the places like western NC, that tend to get some nasty ice storms on a more regular basis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: These rain to ice events are super rare around SE PA. I only remember it once back in the 80s tbh. So not surprised in the least to see the threat fizzle to a huge nothingburger down this way. Slow times ahead on the ens. Maybe a calm before we get into a late winter roller coaster pattern? Or will we simply prove that dirty groundhog wrong with an early flip to spring? Been doing some deep research and looking ahead to the summer outlook and must say it is shaping up to be a scorcher where we kiss triple digits a handful of times. Get ready. ^^But with this said, enso is shaping up early to be very favorable next fall into the early part of winter, so next winter may be very nice. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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