The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I think the gfs is too cold. I’m not worried about ice at all down in the 95 corridor and even the surrounding burbs I think will be mostly ice free. Temps are going to hit 50. It’s going to have a hard time accreting even after temps fall below freezing. I think we at most see a coating of sleet at the end of the storm. Now areas n and w where temps will be closer to freezing during most of the precip, I’d be worried. Places like Lehigh Valley and out by Paul, I could definitely see a heavy ice event for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Also Sunday’s storm is dead in the water, the Great Lakes low acts as a kicker. Northern stream way too fast again screws everything up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6z Euro warms the column and keeps it rain into Philly metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I think the gfs is too cold. I’m not worried about ice at all down in the 95 corridor and even the surrounding burbs I think will be mostly ice free. Temps are going to hit 50. It’s going to have a hard time accreting even after temps fall below freezing. I think we at most see a coating of sleet at the end of the storm. Now areas n and w where temps will be closer to freezing during most of the precip, I’d be worried. Places like Lehigh Valley and out by Paul, I could definitely see a heavy ice event for you guys. That's what I've been thinking, even if the GFS is right. This isn't a typical ice storm set up for us. Usually the cold is already entrenched when precip moves in. But it's going to be warm and wet before any change over, I think it would be difficult for ice to accrete unless it was a prolonged icing event. But yeah, thinking this is a non-event in and around the city. Maybe some pingers and mangled flakes mixing in at the end, but right now the GFS is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Dense freezing fog here, temp @ 27F, visibility about 500 ft. Pretty cool, looks like very heavy snow at first glance, snow on the ground helps that effect. Gotta be some slickness on roads it would seem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, JTA66 said: That's what I've been thinking, even if the GFS is right. This isn't a typical ice storm set up for us. Usually the cold is already entrenched when precip moves in. But it's going to be warm and wet before any change over, I think it would be difficult for ice to accrete unless it was a prolonged icing event. But yeah, thinking this is a non-event in and around the city. Maybe some pingers and mangled flakes mixing in at the end, but right now the GFS is on its own. There are a couple more on the GFS long range including a pre-Valentine's scoot-by and on Valentine's Day frontal passage/apps runner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Dense freezing fog here, temp @ 27F, visibility about 500 ft. Pretty cool, looks like very heavy snow at first glance, snow on the ground helps that effect. Gotta be some slickness on roads it would seem. Roads are all still treated from the previous storm so there were no issues at least for me on the way into work and I take mostly all local roads, no highways. The walk to the car though was iffy, my walkway was very slick and my car was coated in ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Upon further glance, I think even most areas of Berks and Chester should be mostly ice free, maybe some slick spots up there but nothing devastating with power outage and tree damage. Now Central PA and the Pocono region is a much different story. That is where the biggest ice threat looks to be at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Dense freezing fog here, temp @ 27F, visibility about 500 ft. Pretty cool, looks like very heavy snow at first glance, snow on the ground helps that effect. Gotta be some slickness on roads it would seem. The car had a icy glaze but travel is fine around here. Maybe some leftover brine/salt from the weekend storm on the roads because I don't think they treated the roads this morning. At least I didn't see any trucks out... Fog/28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 IMHO sometimes too much info in the pin point forecasting is dangerous. This is a fine example of this in this mornings forecast as seen below. Wording of the forecast leads to believe there will be no problem driving around the the LV. Could not be further from the truth. For one, I am real glad the rainfall totals are up there but this is 80-100% strictly runoff event and not getting into the ground and recharging as the ground is still frozen. All this winter storm event will do is raise the stream levels to bankfull and minor road ponding. Any thawing of the first few inches of soil will have the door quickly slammed shut and be refrozen by Saturday morning. Worst of all, it appears Friday evening into Saturday will be accident central in the LV spreading south as the roads freeze up quickly after the frontal passage and any snow and sleet that does fall will get compacted down. Going to be a real ice skating rink for sure. The big race will be on going to actually how fast PADOT can place salt on the road before it freezes. With no brining available because of the heavy rain potential, only immediate salt placement is going to help. Timing will be everything and I would not want to be driving anywhere early Friday evening around here, especially on the rural roads. Even though this may be only an winter advisory level event, I would recommend MT Holly at least issue a winter storm watch to get the public aware of this severe road surface icing potential. This is one storm event that MT Holly needs to be on the precautionary side and actually accept being in err on it not happening rather than take a wait and see reactionary attitude. Residents in our area have not experienced this flash freeze potential situation in a dozen years or so. Timing is everything. To sum it up, there are way too many party goers on Friday night around here and I think they will be surprised how quickly the roads will turn to crap. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 31. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. High near 35. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 And the 12z NAM gives me 8 drops of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Mt. Holly had lofted a Dense fog advisory for the Philly metro area and also had a mention of freezing fog earlier (although where I am in Philly with below 32 temps currently at 30, it's freezing on the cars and colder surfaces. The streets and walks are treated but there was obviously some snow melt yesterday with the temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I mean look at the 12z NAM temps.. at 09z areas even up in the lehigh valley are still into the 40's Then as the "freezing rain" moves in, temps are still only 30-31 in the Lehigh Valley, that isn't going to accrete. Temps won't be into the mid 20's until the precip is just about over. Could the Lehigh Valley see a flash freeze? Maybe, but with it being during the daytime that would also be pretty unusual. I just do not see devastating ice storm in this set up for anywhere but NEPA into central PA. Untreated roads may be slick Friday morning in the Lehigh Valley but by Friday night, roads will have all been treated and mostly dried out. Philly and the Burbs, this is a purely rain event at this point. And FWIW the GFS isn't all that different, a tad colder so the "freezing rain" gets down into the Philly burbs but the same issues exist as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Latest NAM is in pretty good agreement now with GFS on timing of FROPA and ZR start as the 0c surface line starts to reach NW Chesco during the 7am hour on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 That 0.25" of ice would not be great here in NW Chesco and the LV IF the NAM is correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I mean look at the 12z NAM temps.. at 09z areas even up in the lehigh valley are still into the 40's Then as the "freezing rain" moves in, temps are still only 30-31 in the Lehigh Valley, that isn't going to accrete. Temps won't be into the mid 20's until the precip is just about over. Could the Lehigh Valley see a flash freeze? Maybe, but with it being during the daytime that would also be pretty unusual. I just do not see devastating ice storm in this set up for anywhere but NEPA into central PA. Untreated roads may be slick Friday morning in the Lehigh Valley but by Friday night, roads will have all been treated and mostly dried out. Philly and the Burbs, this is a purely rain event at this point. And FWIW the GFS isn't all that different, a tad colder so the "freezing rain" gets down into the Philly burbs but the same issues exist as the NAM. Both the 6z Euro and GFS even had temps in those ranges at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I'm almost to the point where I would punt the rest of winter in exchange for above average severe weather Spring and below normal Summer temps... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'm almost to the point where I would punt the rest of winter in exchange for above average severe weather Spring and below normal Summer temps... I’d like to see at least one Warning type criteria snowfall out here then yeah this cold and no snow is getting old here. I mean sit at 9.5” for season but that’s 3 snowfalls 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'm almost to the point where I would punt the rest of winter in exchange for above average severe weather Spring and below normal Summer temps... I give it till Presidents Day, then I begin to check out, unless the Local weatherpeople begin to scream about something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, penndotguy said: I’d like to see at least one Warning type criteria snowfall out here then yeah this cold and no snow is getting old here. I mean sit at 9.5” for season but that’s 3 snowfalls I'm just looking ahead to the next 7+ days and as far as snow it's kinda meh...which brings us to about Feb 10th. 32F/Still foggy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Don S thinks a milder second half of February time is running out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeNJWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Had a low of 13.7, with dense freezing fog this morning. It must not have been around long, because there was no accrual in the trees, unlike an event last week. The fog has since cleared out now, and 38.1 degrees. Some stats to round out January in the Sourlands: Mean Max: 36.8 Mean Min: 16.7 Mean temp: 27.1 Highest temp: 59.0 on 1/2 Lowest temp: 1.0 on 1/31 7 Days with a high below 32 (Lowest high 21.2) 28 Days with a low below 32 (10 in 0s) (8 in 10s) (10 in 20s) One day with a low of 32.1 There were several days where the high/low just missed criteria. Snowfall: 14.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Mt Holly thoughts on ice through 7PM Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Mt Holly morning AFD: As we go through Thursday night and Friday, the southeastward progression of the arctic front occurs and this will be key in the timing of the initial shallow cold air seeping eastward. A sharp temperature gradient will exist with this front, and at least a couple ripples of low pressure will be tracking along it. Along and north of the wave and west of the front, temperatures will drop rapidly supporting rain changing to freezing/frozen precipitation. The temperature drop could also start resulting in a rapid freeze-up across our western zones especially during the day. The model forecast soundings indicate the low levels quickly cool with a deep warm layer aloft gradually cooling with time. This points to a period of freezing rain then to sleet then to snow before ending. The guidance is trending faster with the colder air arriving, although the GFS still looks to be the coldest. We went ahead and sped up the colder air arriving and therefore a quicker changeover occurring. Some fog may occur for a time as the warmer air along with higher dew points move over especially lingering snowcover, although this may be limited due to the presence of a strong low- level jet. It looks like the guidance is coming into some better agreement, however there remains uncertainty regarding how quickly the low- level cold spreads southeastward during Friday. The greatest chance for a more prolonged period of freezing/frozen precipitation will be from the I-78 corridor northward. As are result, some accumulating ice is expected across these areas. Some snow/sleet accumulation is expected although the snow amounts look to be limited. This however will depend on how quickly the warm layer aloft erodes and how much moisture remains before ending. We continue to think this looks like an advisory level event for parts of our area, however amounts will depend on the cooling of the column and amount of precipitation falling after colder air arrives. There is an increasing chance now that the rain changes to some freezing rain, sleet and/or snow into the I-95 corridor and possibly to the coast before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Sun finally popped out and the fog lifted once the temps finally went above freezing. Bottomed out at 23 this morning and have briefly touched 40 but am currently partly sunny and 39 with dp 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS has sped up the cold air arrival and now has the change to non-liquid occurring during the 4am hour in NW Chester County 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Accumulated ZR and IP with the latest 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12z GFS still going with a somewhat prolonged icing situation to finish up with some snow. The Canadian is warming up around the metro Philly area and keeping it mostly rain with a little mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z GFS still going with a somewhat prolonged icing situation to finish up with some snow. The Canadian is warming up around the metro Philly area and keeping it mostly rain with a little mix. Let's hope for the Canadian!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Let's hope for the Canadian!!!! I am going to put my windshield cover back on my car later today once the car dries off some... just in case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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