ChescoWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 January was indeed a cold month here in Chester County. In fact we finished with an average temperature of just 26.6 degrees, our coldest January since the 26.2 average temp back in 2015. Overall it was the 35th coldest January since Chester County records began 129 years ago back in 1894. Snowfall wise we finished with 12.9" of snow which is 2.5" above normal. Precipitation (including liquid equivalent snow) was 3.81" which is 0.25" above normal. Seasonal snowfall stands at 12.9" which is 3.8" below our normal season to date snowfall through the end of January which is 16.7" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z gfs more snow less icy. We take. 18z GFS vs 18z Euro (from the Euro's last panel) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS continues to show better CAA and a long duration gradient wave event with the low tracking under the region. Was expecting the GFS to cave to other global guidance by now: Eta: alot of that in SE PA is sleet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GEFS strongly support the op. May be even slightly better for frozen. I will be honest. I cant remember a rain to fzra to sleet ending as snow before. Im sure it has happened several times. I just can't recall it.....probably because it just isn't a very common situation. Someone mentioned 1994. Interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS strongly support the op. May be even slightly better for frozen. I will be honest. I cant remember a rain to fzra to sleet ending as snow before. Im sure it has happened several times. I just can't recall it.....probably because it just isn't a very common situation. Someone mentioned 1994. Interesting. Cmc got colder and ukie also 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS strongly support the op. May be even slightly better for frozen. I will be honest. I cant remember a rain to fzra to sleet ending as snow before. Im sure it has happened several times. I just can't recall it.....probably because it just isn't a very common situation. Someone mentioned 1994. Interesting. Found this from March 2015 - slightly different but rain changing to snow with a frontal passage, wound up with 6 - 8" or more area wide. Obs thread was a fun read. Lots of hand wringing waiting for the change over, although not a lot of sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Picking a time frame for the 6z GFS & NAM and 0z EC, the NAM and EC are warmer and GFS continues with the ice threat. Euro has a double-low solution - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The key is the strength of that high. Gfs has it at 1044 while the euro and nam are weaker with it at 1040(ecm) and 1038(nam) respectively. Strength of that high is going to determine the outcome of frozen. I’m impressed the GFS is holding serve but still skeptical. Btw those TT snow maps are trash, here are the pivotal which don’t show sleet as snow. Don’t want anyone thinking they have a shot of a foot out of this thing. Could be 2-4” of sleet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: The key is the strength of that high. Gfs has it at 1044 while the euro and nam are weaker with it at 1040(ecm) and 1038(nam) respectively. Strength of that high is going to determine the outcome of frozen. I’m impressed the GFS is holding serve but still skeptical. Btw those TT snow maps are trash, here are the pivotal which don’t show sleet as snow. Don’t want anyone thinking they have a shot of a foot out of this thing. Could be 2-4” of sleet though. Sleet accums still count towards snowfall totals, but im sure you are already aware of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Appears in 2015 we saw something similar, at least according to my map lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6z Euro is similar to its 0z except the northern high is shifted a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z NAM at range says 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 12z NAM at range says It kinda stalls the low out for a few beats and then has it do a quarterback sneak over the CWA goal line. The northern high doesn't drop down as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 If nothing else, the GFS is a stubborn SOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Sunday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Glad to see Sunday is still there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 N&W and Lehigh Valley ice land on the 12z GFS 1.5" ice Allentown I couldn't imagine that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Last time an IP/FRZ rain event of this size was Valentine's storm 2007. Amazing what that did to I78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Need the GFS to be wrong and head north electricity is a needful thing, especially next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Hey @Ralph Wiggumcan you give me an update on this weekend? I'm out of the loop. I'm due to fly back in Friday but if it looks sketchy I am cool staying at extra day or two down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: Glad to see Sunday is still there King GFS led the way (albeit a touch overdone) and signaled the frozen end to Thursday-Friday and others now following. Thus, I tend to lean to the GFS for Sunday. Especially considering the usual progressive NAVGEM is on board. Laugh as you want, that is guidance with a good red flag. If you use these tools for guidance, things can be deciphered and figured out. Used verbatim then setting up to fail. Just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Need the GFS to be wrong and head north electricity is a needful thing, especially next weekend Euro is colder this run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Euro was a big shift towards the GFS. Models converging on a solution or more shifts S possible? Pretty interesting set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Routing for cold rain on Thurs/Fri and hope that snow comes on Sunday! I don't do ICE 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 no weekend snow or ice please. i already got shit from my manager when i was like "hey maybe it won't be safe for me to come in saturday morning if we get a bunch of frozen precip friday night" and he responded with "my app says rain" fml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 His app must be weatherbug, family tells me it's never wrong.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, RedSky said: His app must be weatherbug, family tells me it's never wrong.. Weather bug has to be the worst ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Weather bug has to be the worst ever. I betcha many of us started off using weatherbug then quickly realized it sucked and useless. Hoping for a ice storm Friday, it's been a while. Exploding transformers, cracking/creaking branches and limbs w/a shiny coating on everything ...the whole 9 yards. 38F/sunny 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ice storms cause damage so no one really needs to see that happen. I'm flying back 4 PM Friday. I'm gonna probably just stay down here til Monday I'm thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 37 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Ice storms cause damage so no one really needs to see that happen. I'm flying back 4 PM Friday. I'm gonna probably just stay down here til Monday I'm thinking So do blizzards, hurricanes, severe weather/t-storms, tornados, flooding etc. This is a weather board so you take/follow what mother nature throws your way... 38F 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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