RedSky Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Newman said: The NW Philly burbs and parts of South Central PA have been the screw hole all winter thus far The middle finger storm had a big part in that hole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Very 1994 ice storm look on the 12z GFS 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: Very 1994 ice storm look on the 12z GFS Not a fan of ice like I am snow. Maybe this can trend even more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Newman said: The NW Philly burbs and parts of South Central PA have been the screw hole all winter thus far 21 minutes ago, Newman said: The NW Philly burbs and parts of South Central PA have been the screw hole all winter thus far Yep, seen here for sure. It happens though and we still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Shades of 07 on that last GFS run. Would be 2 large sleet events back to back. However, there is still time to bring more snow into the equation especially N and W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS on it's own right now though which is my one concern. CMC/UKMET both are too far north for everyone besides N and W and would be mostly rain for the philly metro area. GFS leading the way or is it overdoing the cold? How often do we see plain rain changing to freezing rain which is what the GFS depicts? You would think it would be more sleet than rain if the cold press is that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Sounds like a good time to bust out the generators and give em a tune. Too early to call but that does not look good verbatim... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The Vanilla ice ice baby run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The beginning of it is showing up on the last panel of the 12z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 No ice worries on the ECM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: No ice worries on the ECM We have seen a tendency for the ECM to be too far NW in the last few weeks as I'm sure you painfully remember however, the GFS was too far SE in the previous system. The results ended up being somewhat in the middle of those 2 models and that's where I think we are headed again. Ice threat for the interior but mainly rain around 95 and the Philly metro area/NJ. But hey I'm just some random weenie that tries to forecast for fun. Won't be surprised if the 18z GFS trends a bit further N as none of the other globals budged at 12z. But who knows, maybe it scores the coup and most of us see some frozen out of this. I think I have more interest in the 2/7 time period for some frozen over a majority of the area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, RedSky said: No ice worries on the ECM Glenn wasn't the least bit concerned during his 11am forecast. Pretty much, "It may turn to a little mix before ending." Not saying he's correct but he didn't seem like it was much of a possible event... 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The beginning of it is showing up on the last panel of the 12z NAM. Look at that banana high!! Pressing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn wasn't the least bit concerned during his 11am forecast. Pretty much, "It may turn to a little mix before ending." Not saying he's correct but he didn't seem like it was much of a possible event... 31F Yeah, I dont think most of us here actually believe the GFS. It was just concerning to see it double down the way it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 Look at that banana high!! Pressing too Looks like a pear with a big bite out of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah, I dont think most of us here actually believe the GFS. It was just concerning to see it double down the way it did. Hell, if I receive a little mix and 1" of snow at the tail end I'll be happy. Always enjoy rain changing to mix/snow events...total nightmare the other way around. 32F 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: No ice worries on the ECM Euro made a big move to the GFS. Has sleet. Key is it made a move towards the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I enjoyed the euro's coastal hugger day 7-8 that brought rain to snow in Jersey, rain in Boston, SECS to Philly and nearby burbs, yet screwed the far NW burbs and Lehigh Valley...sure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Did you see the run Albedo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The middle finger storm. The hoochie warm wet mess. The euro day 7-8 bag of rock salt for the NW crowds wounds. No way we get it three times right? "Not with three barrels it can't, not with three!" Old Quint lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 hours ago, Newman said: The NW Philly burbs and parts of South Central PA have been the screw hole all winter thus far The 1 foot line is a bit off as we will finish January with an above snowfall month here (12.9") in NW Chester County and just under 4" below seasonal norms to date...but for sure more to the north and south so a real relative snow hole!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS is exact opposite on the day 7 storm and hits the NW crowd, something has to give eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Hell, if I receive a little mix and 1" of snow at the tail end I'll be happy. Always enjoy rain changing to mix/snow events...total nightmare the other way around. 32F Agreed in this area it is pretty rare to go the rain to ice to snow route..the cold air will certainly be drilling in by the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 22 minutes ago, RedSky said: The middle finger storm. The hoochie warm wet mess. The euro day 7-8 bag of rock salt for the NW crowds wounds. No way we get it three times right? "Not with three barrels it can't, not with three!" Old Quint lol I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet then to wet snow for the LV. Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards. This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too. Speaking of snow drought- can you see the donut hole for us in this map? truly amazing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet then to wet snow for the LV. Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards. This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too. Speaking of snow drought- can you see the donut hole for us in this map? truly amazing. That’s insane isn’t it? Although I kinda remember a similar winter with same results but can’t think of the year off hand maybe 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 45 minutes ago, Albedoman said: This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. And the state ran out of consumer (and road) salt! I had to go on a work trip to Baltimore in January '94 during one of what became ~17 ice storms that season, and planned to take Amtrak but drive to the station and park in their garage, so eased on down to 30th St. Station and thankfully decided against getting on I-76 otherwise I would have been trapped there for 8 hours, because the ramps iced up and cars/trucks were stuck and blocked it so no on could get on or off. When I got down to Baltimore, they only had rain and plenty of salt, so I brought back 2 bags of halite in my luggage. 1994 (January 19) was also the last time KPHL recorded a below 0 temp (-5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The NAM and GFS 18zs (GFS is still running too). NAM has a little more antecedent rain and appears a tick faster compared to the 12z. Edit to add in the Canadian... running slower than the American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z gfs more snow less icy. We take. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Freezing fog in the forecast tomorrow night major psyched for this the pogonip cometh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: Freezing fog in the forecast tomorrow night major psyched for this the pogonip cometh Back in the old days when I had a morning paper route (5:30am) my huffy and I hit the asphalt many times because of freezing fog...quite deceptive. 20F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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