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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Handful of RERs so far -

My high so far today has been 64 and it stayed overcast the entire day, so no sun to heat it up.  It's currently 64 and overcast with dp 60.

Still any severe threat for tonight? I was just getting the mail and it’s very gusty.

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1 hour ago, mattinpa said:

Still any severe threat for tonight? I was just getting the mail and it’s very gusty.

There's a Wind Advisory up for the entire state and I have been watching the line as it moves across and it looks like it has diminished a bit but then it might do its final downsloping as it approaches the area by maybe midnight, and re-fire into a stronger line.  SPC DY1 has us still as "marginal" -

And I agree that it has been pretty gusty the past couple hours but the temps have held in the mid-60s too.  It's currently 64 with dp a juicy 61.

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STS issued.

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
DEC003-PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-101-120300-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0323.211212T0201Z-211212T0300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
901 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  Southeastern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania...
  Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Western Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  South central Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 1000 PM EST.

* At 900 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Alpha to Rising Sun, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is
           possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Philadelphia, Allentown, Wilmington, Newark, Easton, West Chester,
  Bethlehem, Norristown, Chester, Pottstown, Phoenixville, Lansdale,
  West Norriton, Forks, East Norriton, Pennsville, Coatesville,
  Yeadon, Emmaus and Westtown.

This includes the following highways...
 Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 296 and 350.
 Northeast Extension between mile markers 21 and 52.
 Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 11.
 Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 7 and 23.
 Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 327 and 346.
 Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 59 and 76.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey near mile marker 0.
 Interstate 676 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 0.
 Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 19.
 Interstate 176 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 1 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This severe thunderstorm may contain little or no lightning. Do not
wait until you hear thunder before taking cover.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 7599 4011 7594 4014 7588 4018 7593
      4077 7526 4075 7519 4057 7519 4054 7507
      4042 7506 4040 7497 4028 7485 3985 7528
      3984 7536 3977 7546 3966 7551 3968 7579
      3972 7579 3972 7613
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 270DEG 31KT 4064 7518 3973 7607

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Davis

 

kdix_20211212_0159_BR_0.5.png

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5 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

That was quick, pretty much over with here. Just your typical squall line -- gusty winds and a 15-minute downpour. However I do hear sirens, so something in the neighborhood happened.

Same here. Expecting it to be pretty windy for the next couple of hours based on Mt. Holly's forecast discussion.

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On 12/10/2021 at 11:37 AM, The Iceman said:

12/19-20 may be something to watch for a thump to light rain event. Temps are marginal but with a strong high in quebec, the set up could easily yield a solid thump especially for NW areas but even 95 could see some accumulation with some slight adjustments mainly to the SE ridge. If the front on next thurs/fri can beat it down a bit more than progged, it may be the first real threat of the year. Still in the day 8-9 range so a lot can change obviously but something to keep an eye on.

 

On 12/10/2021 at 6:11 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Week of the 20th has some good potential. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see a larger storm somewhere in the East during that week leading up to Christmas. Southern energy rolling across, active PJ being forced South as the PNA pops briefly and ridging enters the eastern NAO region. 

Euro/GFS family of models all over this threat:

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

gfs_z500a_nhem_42.png

Big changes on the ens for the week of the 20th. The @The Iceman thump to rain on the 20th still possible but looks like models have moved this threat up in time to the 19th with vorts racing thru the flow. Not clear how much cold air will be available at the onset....setup seems very marginal for now but certainly something to watch.

The followup longwave pattern/system around the 21st/22nd holds potential and has me more intrigued as it is dependent on a rare Nina southern piece of energy meandering across the US via the STJ. Models are all over the place with the handling of that wave.....GEPS/CMC want to keep it in tact but zip it along the STJ with a zonal flow. The GEFS absorb the wave into the PJ and ride it to the West of us. GEFS do have some decent members that show the potential if the timing and wavelength play in our favor. The Euro is probably the closest in popping a big storm as it keeps the wave somewhat in tact and tries to amplify it via phasing along the Mid Atl coast....something a few of the GEFS portray. The EPS have it but not quite as enthused on the means tho I am sure there are some hits on the individual panels...haven't checked.

Lots will change and much is dependent on the PNA ridge popping and how deep the NAO ridging becomes and the location of said ridging.

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

gem_z500_vort_us_41.png

gfs-ens_z500a_us_40.png

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