snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5” on 0z euro NOT a “minor event” by Philly standards (and Kuchie has them at 9”)‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 313 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ012-015>019-021-PAZ070-071-104- 106-272200- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Middlesex- Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland- Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 313 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...The eastern shore of Maryland, northern and central Delaware, far southeastern Pennsylvania, and much of central and southern New Jersey. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin Friday evening in Delmarva and southern New Jersey, spreading northward overnight into Saturday morning. Snow may be heavy at times through early afternoon before diminishing late in the day. Winds may generate areas of blowing snow and low visibilities at times. The storm total snow forecast remains very uncertain, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 57 minutes ago, BBasile said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 313 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ012-015>019-021-PAZ070-071-104- 106-272200- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Middlesex- Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland- Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 313 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...The eastern shore of Maryland, northern and central Delaware, far southeastern Pennsylvania, and much of central and southern New Jersey. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin Friday evening in Delmarva and southern New Jersey, spreading northward overnight into Saturday morning. Snow may be heavy at times through early afternoon before diminishing late in the day. Winds may generate areas of blowing snow and low visibilities at times. The storm total snow forecast remains very uncertain, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. I came here to say this. I have to confess getting a notification on my phone saying WINTER STORM WATCH felt awesome. Just seeing that notification felt like progress in this desolate dry winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Mt. Holly's latest hot off the press - I thought the below tweet was hilarious! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The 6z GFS brought the low a bit west compared to the 0z and slowed it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM did the opposite of the GFS by speeding up the low in the 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 0z Euro pretty much stayed put compared to the earlier 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Got down to 9.8F this morning. Currently at 10.9F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Battle of the cutoffs for the 6zs. And as a quick obs, my low may end up being 13 (it's been wavering around that). Currently 14 with dp 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The 6z GFS brought the low a bit west compared to the 0z and slowed it down. At the surface very early on very wonky shoves surface low 200 miles west then jumps east. 12z should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: At the surface very early on very wonky shoves surface low 200 miles west then jumps east. 12z should be interesting The Euro and NAM were also doing that "hot potato" move of the low from one place to another earlier and it seems it might have to do with some "double-barrel" / pair of lows that were in play. The earliest depictions had some weak low strolling along the southern U.S. moving due east, and off the coast of FL, and then "something happens" and that low fades and a new low forms off the coast of the Carolinas... And somewhere along the line, there is this far-away interaction in the atmosphere between the remnants of the old low and the newly-formed one and then that whole mess gets dragged up the coast along the jetstream. You then see what I call a "sloppy" system of convection slapping around a core and periodically stretching and contracting and undulating just off the coast. I know that description probably sounds silly. But that is exactly what it "looks like" after running the animations over the past few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I was following a few thread on twitter and within one found this video. Light bulb clicked on …..Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The Euro and NAM were also doing that "hot potato" move of the low from one place to another earlier and it seems it might have to do with some "double-barrel" / pair of lows that were in play. The earliest depictions had some weak low strolling along the southern U.S. moving due east, and off the coast of FL, and then "something happens" and that low fades and a new low forms off the coast of the Carolinas... And somewhere along the line, there is this far-away interaction in the atmosphere between the remnants of the old low and the newly-formed one and then that whole mess gets dragged up the coast along the jetstream. You then see what I call a "sloppy" system of convection slapping around a core and periodically stretching and contracting and undulating just off the coast. I know that description probably sounds silly. But that is exactly what it "looks like" after running the animations over the past few days. Yes, in the past sometimes there is this pseudo low out ahead on the stalled baroclinic zone latches onto it thinking that’s the real storm it weakens scoots east then the real storm develops west abs takes over up the coast becoming the dominant storm. Almost like the models are chasing the wrong storm. All of that has to be resolved today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Suprised none of you have started a thread. I'm not on here enough and too much of a weenie to do so. Guess the question is now, does the GFS cave back to the JV modles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, SP said: I was following a few thread on twitter and within one found this video. Light bulb clicked on ….. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Thanks! What that basically does is get into the weeds about how "mother nature" "must come into equilibrium" and shows the mechanisms (and equations) to explain how that happens with "weather". Adjacent high pressure and low pressure will "move" to try to equalize and come to some sort of "steady state". Same goes for differing temperatures and humidity. I kind of compare that (as the "macro" application) with what goes on with the ideal gas law too - PV=nRT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Suprised none of you have started a thread. I'm not on here enough and too much of a weenie to do so. Guess the question is now, does the GFS cave back to the JV modles? In this forum, people are sometimes afraid to do it lest they jinx it! I know Paul did the last couple. You could go ahead and start one since we are a bit more then 2 days out from start time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 33 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Suprised none of you have started a thread. I'm not on here enough and too much of a weenie to do so. Guess the question is now, does the GFS cave back to the JV modles? Got a thread started--figured there's not much to jinx for us PA peeps. 8F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Thanks! What that basically does is get into the weeds about how "mother nature" "must come into equilibrium" and shows the mechanisms (and equations) to explain how that happens with "weather". Adjacent high pressure and low pressure will "move" to try to equalize and come to some sort of "steady state". Same goes for differing temperatures and humidity. I kind of compare that (as the "macro" application) with what goes on with the ideal gas law too - PV=nRT.Credit to follow Anthony and his group of contributors. Sure thing get into the weeds but its nice when something clicks every now and then….Ok, time to rest the brain.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, SP said: Credit to follow Anthony and his group of contributors. Sure thing get into the weeds but its nice when something clicks every now and then…. Ok, time to rest the brain. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk It's all calculus! I had to take 3 semesters in college as a chem major and in the case of these models, it's all multi-variable calculus (and then they add the statistics piece in). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeS127 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hey Everyone, Long time lurker. Something I noticed(and I’m sure others have too) all of the models that are showing a more easterly track(GFS,Euro etc.) have the low popping far OTS off the Florida coast. None of the Mesos have the low that far off the coast. Sorry if this is simple or has already been addressed but what is causing the dramatic difference in where the low sets up? Trying to learn. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Besides myself, who else is ready to start tracking next weekend? Several models and ens sniffing this potential and starting to fire up on a few ops as well now: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, NeS127 said: Hey Everyone, Long time lurker. Something I noticed(and I’m sure others have too) all of the models that are showing a more easterly track(GFS,Euro etc.) have the low popping far OTS off the Florida coast. None of the Mesos have the low that far off the coast. Sorry if this is simple or has already been addressed but what is causing the dramatic difference in where the low sets up? Trying to learn. Thanks! HM twitted about this last night, mostly likely because some models develop an area of convention off the FL coast. And yesterday when the 18z NAM was a miss, someone in the NE forum noted that blob of convection scoots off to the NE. Our storm forms and chases it, that's why the 18z NAM was a miss. Is it correct? Just another nowcasting ob to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Big transition back to -PNA and eastern ridging is now all but gone on LR ens. Pattern relax kicked to mid Feb now. A few very transient breaks in the BN temps but overall the +PNA is locked in as well as big EPO ridge. Some signs of AO trying to go negative also (went from a ++AO look on LR to neutral to now maybe -AO). Keep this pattern going with the base cold air source depicted and we keep tracking. Nothing stopping us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Besides myself, who else is ready to start tracking next weekend? Several models and ens sniffing this potential and starting to fire up on a few ops as well now: Meh, not interested in anything inside day 4 this year. 12z will be an apps runner rainstorm. Book it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 My First Forecast for this "event" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Meh, not interested in anything inside day 4 this year. 12z will be an apps runner rainstorm. Book it. Nope. Actually this look has improved. The midweek system is warmish and the sacrificial lamb that resets the pattern moving forward. King GFS is honking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Rather it be S and E with the H5 look depicted than a cutter for sure. Repeat of Jan 3....again? Shore points jackpot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 #1 Expected mild La Nina February #2 Weeklies were all over a mild hostile pattern and agreed #3 The top long rangers had a -PNA for the first half of the month What happened? What inside information does Weather World get? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS keeps showing February 2021 part deux is coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nope. Actually this look has improved. The midweek system is warmish and the sacrificial lamb that resets the pattern moving forward. King GFS is honking: I saw that over-running rain storm for earlier and the Feb 5 - 6 one looks like an ice storm nightmare for the Carolinas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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