Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The 12 Euro is all spastic. It seems to follow the Canadian at the same time frame but when you loop a range, it keeps jerking the low east and west like a tug-o-war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ukie's been holding steady with the position with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This is tough I would disregard the euro but it has NAM support and there's still time to salvage what would be the biggest snow on the PA side for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 GFS is king. It's been king for years. All hail the almighty GFS whether we like the outcome or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: This is tough I would disregard the euro but it has NAM support and there's still time to salvage what would be the biggest snow on the PA side for the winter. This is optimistic of you. It looks to be in a great spot off OBX but then goes wide right. I don't know I think we're toast, but would love the 4-5" storm to verify. So frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: Euro was actually slightly better with trough orientation then 6z but the double barrel elongated low dried the western flank I was looking more closely at the 12z Euro and 12 NAM and they both have the double-barrel lows that sortof become like a Pushi-pullyu. Am wondering if there's something like convective feedback going on considering it seems there was a consensus that the storm would undergo bombogenesis at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 46 minutes ago, Lady Di said: This is optimistic of you. It looks to be in a great spot off OBX but then goes wide right. I don't know I think we're toast, but would love the 4-5" storm to verify. So frustrating. I tried. Giving it through 0z runs to see if the eastern momentum has ceased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 38 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I was looking more closely at the 12z Euro and 12 NAM and they both have the double-barrel lows that sortof become like a Pushi-pullyu. Am wondering if there's something like convective feedback going on considering it seems there was a consensus that the storm would undergo bombogenesis at some point. Could be convective feedback yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Wow, it appears I hit this moving target in the bullseye. No biting for me. It appears another use of the leaf blower for this snow event. Gotta charge up the battery. LMAO +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I do not believe we get jack crap. OTS or hits Long island Boston area. The cards are not in play at this time. That storm has to be at least 150 miles more sw and wrapped around and amped like hell. The best storms are down at the BM at the Chesapeake Bay. Furthermore, the mid range models are so far off in this PA jet progressive pattern that it is scary. When the Nam shows it at the 60 hour mark, I will bite at it. Until then time to just watch the mood flakes fall tonight. Honestly this weather pattern is equal to the volatility of todays stock market activity - and thats bad. I might as well be reading the futures in the market for our... Monday at 05:09 PM 1,934 replies 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Meh I'll give it until 00z tonight before throwing in the towel but this one looks like a dud for pretty much everyone except the coast. Seasonal trend wins again. At least it will get warm soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Albedoman said: Wow, it appears I hit this moving target in the bullseye. No biting for me. It appears another use of the leaf blower for this snow event. Gotta charge up the battery. LMAO +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I do not believe we get jack crap. OTS or hits Long island Boston area. The cards are not in play at this time. That storm has to be at least 150 miles more sw and wrapped around and amped like hell. The best storms are down at the BM at the Chesapeake Bay. Furthermore, the mid range models are so far off in this PA jet progressive pattern that it is scary. When the Nam shows it at the 60 hour mark, I will bite at it. Until then time to just watch the mood flakes fall tonight. Honestly this weather pattern is equal to the volatility of todays stock market activity - and thats bad. I might as well be reading the futures in the market for our... Monday at 05:09 PM 1,934 replies 2 When are the water restrictions coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 28 minutes ago, Albedoman said: Wow, it appears I hit this moving target in the bullseye. No biting for me. It appears another use of the leaf blower for this snow event. Gotta charge up the battery. LMAO +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I do not believe we get jack crap. OTS or hits Long island Boston area. The cards are not in play at this time. That storm has to be at least 150 miles more sw and wrapped around and amped like hell. The best storms are down at the BM at the Chesapeake Bay. Furthermore, the mid range models are so far off in this PA jet progressive pattern that it is scary. When the Nam shows it at the 60 hour mark, I will bite at it. Until then time to just watch the mood flakes fall tonight. Honestly this weather pattern is equal to the volatility of todays stock market activity - and thats bad. I might as well be reading the futures in the market for our... Monday at 05:09 PM 1,934 replies 2 And yet you had absolutely no sound scientific evidence to back up your argument. Congrats on your lucky guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 24 minutes ago, The Iceman said: When are the water restrictions coming? Too early to say. If the La Nina takes its time breaking down, sometime in May. Still can get late April rains to kill the potential drought though but Feb and March are not looking good right now for any huge precip event. All it takes though is one good snowfall storm event of 12-18 inches in Feb to provide us with a good recharge. Lets hope this happens by Valentines Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: And yet you had absolutely no sound scientific evidence to back up your argument. Congrats on your lucky guess. TBF you don't need to be scientific to know that Miller B's set to dump 2' of snow in PHL usually don't work out. Probably 4 out of 5 times. So I mean, assuming the GFS was correct all along gives you an 80% chance of being correct probably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: TBF you don't need to be scientific to know that Miller B's set to dump 2' of snow in PHL usually don't work out. Probably 4 out of 5 times. So I mean, assuming the GFS was correct all along gives you an 80% chance of being correct probably. I've seen numerous Miller Bs dump in our subforum. WTF are you talking about? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If you think Miller B's don't have high bust potential, that is on you. 2' storms are rare regardless. We did get a 2' Miller B in 2010 and 2016 so I guess we are due for a 6 year 2' Miller B but you're not getting it this time it appears. Edit: Here's a fresh article I found lol https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-forecast-philadelphia-weather-winter-storm-20220125.html Sometimes that “B” can stand for bust around here as they often blow up too far north and-or east to affect Philadelphia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM looks poor. This one is about done I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: If you think Miller B's don't have high bust potential, that is on you. 2' storms are rare regardless. We did get a 2' Miller B in 2010 and 2016 so I guess we are due for a 6 year 2' Miller B but you're not getting it this time it appears. Edit: Here's a fresh article I found lol https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-forecast-philadelphia-weather-winter-storm-20220125.html Sometimes that “B” can stand for bust around here as they often blow up too far north and-or east to affect Philadelphia. I’m sure Paul could update this thread with even more Miller Bs that have hit us hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM = another Carolina crusher...winter of yore down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18z NAM looks to be moving to the GFS without all the junky feedback (but then it's the 18z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I’m sure Paul could update this thread with even more Miller Bs that have hit us hard. I never said we don't get big Miller B's just that they tease us on models then many times have not panned out. The Philadelphia Inquirer apparently agrees with that so if you think that's wrong, I guess call them up and dispute it lol. Regardless, we always understood there was a pattern towards the end of the month that showed potential. We got there, then never had model consensus. At least we understood that. These instaface weather folks cherry pick the craziest kuchera they can find, share it to tens or hundreds of thousands of people and get their hopes up, and then if it doesn't happen those people get upset and I feel bad for them. Those instaface cherry pickers are the great downfall to weather IMHO and I've had enough of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 No comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The NAM is so bad you just can't take it seriously... 27F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/20/2022 at 1:24 PM, MacChump said: my goal this winter is to not even so much as *pick up* a snow shovel and so far so good looked sketchy for a bit yesterday but feeling ok now 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yeah I know the back story but to ease the pain some here is possibly why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: No comment. The jump emoji crashed and was unavailable, not joking either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: No comment. Comment: That snow hole is getting bigger every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Feels sorry for Boston it's suppose to snow there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: Feels sorry for Boston it's suppose to snow there Reading through their thread, they’re somewhere between denial/bargaining stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Yeah I know the back story but to ease the pain some here is possibly why. The Euro has had the low looking like this - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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