Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Well from the Inkie article I posted upthread, including the rest of Tony Gigi's (rainshadow when he posted here) comment - I think this Euro run might be a bit out to lunch (with a lot of obvious extrapolation going on because it's the 6z), so will have to see what the 12z does with more data. I think I also read that the NAM and the Euro also tend to overamplify phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Dream said: I'm in Yardley/Morrisville area which looks to be on the cusp Oops, I have you confused with a different poster, 3-6 will verify. I had you out in Bensalem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: Oops, I have you confused with a different poster, 3-6 will verify. I had you out in Bensalem. Looks like there will be some really sharp cut offs for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: I think I also read that the NAM and the Euro also tend to overamplify phasing. Well everyone always made fun of the NAM and being "NAM'd". But they did finally fix it so it's not as bad as it used to be in the past and is more tempered. However there seems to be a new physical law - "conservation of the amp" and the Euro has become the keeper of the over-amperage (and is now the new NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yeah the GFS is most reliable and has been most consistent in recent years I find. At this point I'd expect the euro to show a 3-6" storm around Philly at 12z until it has not much going at all by 0z, and the GFS holds course. The Facebook weathermen will get grilled since they all shared the clown maps. They have done alot of harm to the public trust this winter, lots of unhappy people in their FB comments lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ignore the snow accumulation and precip maps, but check out the temp and humidity maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 While this upcoming storm won't be denting any Top 25 list our here in the Western Burbs - below for your viewing pleasure are our Top 25 January Snowstorms Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" - factoid this is the same annual snowfall as Chicago IL: East Nantmeal Twp. Total Seasonal Snowfall to Date Winter Season 2021-22 (7.1") / January 23 (0.2")/ January 20 (0.3") / January 7 (4.3")/ January 16 (2.3") Snow totals by season: 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0") . Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and your #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 source for Facebook Weather at the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Anyone have a 500MB map of the Euro ensemble. Yesterday there was a 50/50 HP, or I guess you call it a 50/50 ridge. I'd like to see if it's location changed any causing the eastward movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Yeah the GFS is most reliable and has been most consistent in recent years I find. At this point I'd expect the euro to show a 3-6" storm around Philly at 12z until it has not much going at all by 0z, and the GFS holds course. The Facebook weathermen will get grilled since they all shared the clown maps. They have done alot of harm to the public trust this winter, lots of unhappy people in their FB comments lol It depends how you run a page - My Chester County Weather Facebook page has since launch in October grown to over 3,100 members. I update them constantly with the clown maps....but I always pound home the maps are not a forecast....simple guidance for the professionals to use as one of their tools to make a forecast. Now if someone is out there saying a model map = a forecast then they may have some issues - my group - some may not be happy but they all seem to love the local non-philly focus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Ignore the snow accumulation and precip maps, but check out the temp and humidity maps. I don't think anyone is doubting that it is going to be a strong and juicy storm. It's been honked about for at least a week or more, with hints early on that it would bomb out. The issue is the dynamics of the digging trough that will drive it's path and how far from the coast it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Anyone have a 500MB map of the Euro ensemble. Yesterday there was a 50/50 HP, or I guess you call it a 50/50 ridge. I'd like to see if it's location changed any causing the eastward movement Did a couple frames. The pulled out view is kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Well, the 12z NAM has suckered me back in…low is more tucked with more expansive precip. Big stripe of 2 feet+ from south Jersey to New England. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Been a long time since we got NAMED 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: Been a long time since we got NAMED Yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Did a couple frames. The pulled out view is kinda cool. Man I'd like to see that with longitude and latitude. I lifted this from the NYC forum, @Doorman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Well, the 12z NAM has suckered me back in…low is more tucked with more expansive precip. Big stripe of 2 feet+ from south Jersey to New England. The 12z NAM was doing the same kind of hopscotch moves as the 6z Euro where it started with a weak low going OTS and then suddenly inhaled some nitro that yanked the low back towards the coast and started crawling up it and then shoved it out some and yanked it back in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Man I'd like to see that with longitude and latitude. I lifted this from the NYC forum, @Doorman You may be able to generate a loop from this - https://ocean.weather.gov/unified_analysis.php (ETA - it looks like the time frame lets you set multiple days but it appears to have the current day as the end point) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 I propose a new addition to the weenie handbook: When the Euro and NAM are on their own, tell yourself it's 2002 and the old E/E rule will save us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 31 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Well, the 12z NAM has suckered me back in…low is more tucked with more expansive precip. Big stripe of 2 feet+ from south Jersey to New England. cmon hold on to your poker face a little longer. This is an OTS storm. For the LV, 1-3 inches thats it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Wwiper models.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Man I'd like to see that with longitude and latitude. I lifted this from the NYC forum, @Doorman Found where WPC does some surface map forecasts - https://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps Am attaching their b/w day 4 snapshot (for Jan. 29) where you do see the 50/50 High (at least briefly). The lat/lon lines are there but you have to carefully follow them... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Found where WPC does some surface map forecasts - https://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps Am attaching their b/w day 4 snapshot (for Jan. 29) where you do see the 50/50 High (at least briefly). The lat/lon lines are there but you have to carefully follow them... Yeah you can see it gets nudged out of the way but it looks like it prevents it from being a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Yeah you can see it gets nudged out of the way but it looks like it prevents it from being a complete miss. Did an annotation to show the lat/lon. (I blame you for this! ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Did an annotation to show the lat/lon. (I blame you for this! ) Damn, I was off on that. Thanks, still hanging in there which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I think 1-3-18 may be a good analog. Coastal scraper where snj get nailed. I’ll be shocked it the euro ends up being correct. 2-4” N and west 4-8” along 95 and 8-12”+ down by the shore, king gfs won’t be denied imo. Still solid event than what we’ve seen so far, just hope it doesn’t slip further east and make it solely a SNE storm. Hopefully we see that NW trend as we get closer but overnight runs we’re not encouraging except the euro. Who knows I think they are flying recon later on to ingest into the models but thae results from that could go either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12z GFS back to a scrape job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:15 PM, JTA66 said: Made it to 49F. Don't look now but the NAM just took away the SE snowstorm this weekend. Who knows if it's on to something. But if it is, it's another reminder not to get too invested in anything beyond 36-48hrs this winter. I'm just gonna bump this and leave it here. About 72hrs to go, maybe we can still get some light snows out of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It really is amazing how the King Euro has fallen....but what really surprises me is how slow it is to react to the changes. The other models start east and the Euro continues to double down on the error. That said it will go east with the 12z that is the new model pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 GEFS 12z throws a little sumpin sumpin back to I95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: It really is amazing how the King Euro has fallen....but what really surprises me is how slow it is to react to the changes. The other models start east and the Euro continues to double down on the error. That said it will go east with the 12z that is the new model pattern. Here is what I am doing a WAG about - We know the NAM was made to be a more detailed convective model vs the globals (GFS and Euro). And it seems to me that the Euro programmers were maybe possibly trying to tweak the Euro to attempt to pick up the same kind of convective features that the NAM focuses on (but the NAM limits doing that to the latter mid-range to short-range time frame) and then rolls that into its global programming to make it sortof an "all-in-one" type of model... And if that is actually the case, then it's not working too well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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