hazwoper Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 ^ that would be a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 NAM would be an absolute crusher HECS. Snow (albeit light to start) breaks out for parts of SE PA Friday morning. This is how much falls before the low is even north of South Carolina 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 18z NAM ends just before it delivers a historic blizzard to the area. Damn what a good look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This has huge bust all over it if we look at other events in somewhat recent history. Man I'm just gonna go work out, maybe run some errands. We'll evaluate at 0z. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Yes the legendary pre-snow on the NAM and that track I new it wouldn't let us down. Ending the current NAM is a mistake save the program at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 That overrunning depicted on the NAM is something you see on all the big ones, snow always breaks out early with that to lay the base and then the big dog comes up. Snow for over 24 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: This has huge bust all over it if we look at other events in somewhat recent history. Man I'm just gonna go work out, maybe run some errands. We'll evaluate at 0z. Thank you! I hope all is well in Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, and look forward to your insights when you feel the time is right to make science upon us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, Zeus said: I wish you had stayed in NE. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, wkd said: I wish you had stayed in NE. j/k I wish I knew who you are. j/k In all seriousness, I share the sentiment -- a widespread win of a storm would be deluxe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Zeus said: Thank you! I hope all is well in Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, and look forward to your insights when you feel the time is right to make science upon us. I'm sorry you're upset Zeus. There's been similarly tracked storms with similar setups that didn't pan out. I'm a traditional Miller A guy, I don't like Miller Bs and they tend to not play out well IMBY. God bless you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I'm sorry you're upset Zeus. There's been similarly tracked storms with similar setups that didn't pan out. I'm a traditional Miller A guy, I don't like Miller Bs and they tend to not play out well IMBY. God bless you The NAM depicts a Miller A FYI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I'm sorry you're upset Zeus. There's been similarly tracked storms with similar setups that didn't pan out. I'm a traditional Miller A guy, I don't like Miller Bs and they tend to not play out well IMBY. God bless you Yes; it is I who is upset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Zeus said: Thank you! I hope all is well in Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, and look forward to your insights when you feel the time is right to make science upon us. No need to feed the troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Dream said: No need to feed the troll I think I love him 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Newman said: That overrunning depicted on the NAM is something you see on all the big ones, snow always breaks out early with that to lay the base and then the big dog comes up. Snow for over 24 hours If I recall, that happened with the Jan '96 blizzard (and no, I'm not suggesting we're looking at a redux of that storm here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, JTA66 said: If I recall, that happened with the Jan '96 blizzard (and no, I'm not suggesting we're looking at a redux of that storm here). PD II was a SWIFE overrunning event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 '96 was just massive, it started around 2:00AM Sunday snowed till Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 NWS model blend (NBM) accumulated snowfall (Jan 29th - 31st) looks interesting where that has the heaviest being set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 52 minutes ago, Newman said: That overrunning depicted on the NAM is something you see on all the big ones, snow always breaks out early with that to lay the base and then the big dog comes up. Snow for over 24 hours Last February’s storm was a textbook example of that. In Allentown it started snowing at around noon on Sunday, the heavy bands came all day Monday, and on Tuesday and Wednesday we picked up a few more inches as the low sat and spun to the east. The last flakes were at around 11 on Wednesday morning. That’s 71 hours from start to finish, and it was snowing for about 90% of that time frame. It’s easily up there with my favorite storms of all time, despite being stuck at work from Monday morning through Tuesday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, LVblizzard said: Last February’s storm was a textbook example of that. In Allentown it started snowing at around noon on Sunday, the heavy bands came all day Monday, and on Tuesday and Wednesday we picked up a few more inches as the low sat and spun to the east. The last flakes were at around 11 on Wednesday morning. That’s 71 hours from start to finish, and it was snowing for about 90% of that time frame. It’s easily up there with my favorite storms of all time, despite being stuck at work from Monday morning through Tuesday evening. Me too. First major snowstorm in my new house and I was lucky enough to WFH all last Feb, so I just got to sit in my home office and stare out the window as it built up in my back yard. I really hope for a repeat this year so that my new dog can experience it for the first time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Last February’s storm was a textbook example of that. In Allentown it started snowing at around noon on Sunday, the heavy bands came all day Monday, and on Tuesday and Wednesday we picked up a few more inches as the low sat and spun to the east. The last flakes were at around 11 on Wednesday morning. That’s 71 hours from start to finish, and it was snowing for about 90% of that time frame. It’s easily up there with my favorite storms of all time, despite being stuck at work from Monday morning through Tuesday evening. yes that was a nice storm event. I like your summation so far on facebook but I am concerned that the storm bombs out past the BM leaving us with scraps this time. The last storm barreled through in this progressive pattern which hints this storm may only slow down once gets near LI. I think tonight's OZ Nam run will tells us if the storm will have enough energy before it hits the benchmark to throw bands off the ocean and toward eastern PA. Nothing better than having orographic lifting from east to west which is good for us in the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I hate this new GFS program why can't it at least give a fake storm before it pulls the rug 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 35 minutes ago, RedSky said: I hate this new GFS program why can't it at least give a fake storm before it pulls the rug 500hPa improved on it, don't worry about the surface depiction. It's catching up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GEFS are not helping at all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The GEFS had the storm a week and a half ago off the coast until like 2 days before. It ended up tracking straight through PA. This happens time and time again with its SE bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: GEFS are not helping at all The trend so far could be what prompted Mt. Holly's Long Term AFD - Quote .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main concern for the weekend continues to be the low pressure system that will move through the area beginning during the day on Friday before moving out on Saturday. Following the low exiting the region, cold and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday. Model guidance continues to depict the center of the low remaining off the coast and passing to the east. The ECMWF shows a trend further to the west that brings the center of the low closer to the coast. Energy from a shortwave trough arrives downstream sooner and causes the surface low to deepen sooner in the Euro relative to the GFS. If this scenario were to occur, impacts would be higher across the region. However, the operational GFS to this point has been representative of the model consensus. The surface low remains fairly far offshore and will pass relatively quickly to the north as it rapidly deepens. In either case, this event can largely be expected to be snow only across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, Newman said: 500hPa improved on it, don't worry about the surface depiction. It's catching up Still leaning to a substantial SECS+ storm I like the ECM/NAM duo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 hours ago, Blue Dream said: No need to feed the troll I am not a troll. I am a person...tyia. Everyone get their popcorn ready folks, the magic hour will soon be among us. We've currently got the best model showing a modest storm and the rest showing mega storms. Someone have to give! Stay tuned y'all!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The 18z GFS snow map (10:1 & Kuchera) and GEFS depth (it doesn't go "regional" to show a zoom for inches on the map). Snapshot was what appeared to be the max time frame for accums. And as an obs, I did get up to 41 as a high today but that is history. Currently down to 30 with a plummeting dp at 17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Philly Inquirer has a hilarious article about this storm. A couple excerpts (I have a sub but it may be paywalled - sometimes with a couple free reads) - https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-forecast-philadelphia-weather-winter-storm-20220125.html Quote Models are seeing a possible snowstorm for Philly Friday into Saturday. Oh, you’re skeptical? "It's going to be a strong storm," a forecaster said. But how much for Philly remains very much up in the air. Sledders at Belmont Plateau, in Fairmount Park, as snow fell earlier this month. So far, threats have outweighed actual snow.ALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer by Anthony R. Wood Updated 3 hours ago A significant snowfall is possible Friday night into Saturday in the Philly region, and the chances are excellent that if you’ve been around here you heard something similar last week, and the week before that, and the week before that. Sarah Johnson, a lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, is among those who have noticed that storms keep popping up on the computer models, then poofing out, leaving the immediate Philadelphia area with not much more than road-salt residue and that vague taste of the sea in the air. In the latest iteration, during the last few days the models have creamed then erased — erased and then creamed — parts of the Northeast megapolis with anywhere from 2 inches to 2 feet of snow, with the higher fantasy amounts in New England. By late Tuesday, it was all but certain that something major would ignite off the coast. “It’s going to be a strong storm,” said Johnson’s colleague Patrick O’Hara. It wasn’t at all certain, however, what it would mean for Philly. Snow was “likely” Friday night, the weather service said, with a “chance” that it continues Saturday. However, the agency hadn’t yet ventured an accumulation guess. (snip tweet) The Pacific disturbance expected to be a key player had just entered North America and wouldn’t be well-sampled by the U.S. observation network until sometime Wednesday, O’Hara said, thus the models are going to be doing a lot of recalculating. Virtual unreality Computer models never will be able to fully capture and predict the state of the atmosphere. But in years past meteorologists such as NBC10′s Glenn Schwartz have championed and counted on the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts — or Euro — as the gold standard and a critical forecast tool. Not this year. “I, along with many others, have been shocked at its poor performance this winter,” said Schwartz. He said that in some instances the Euro has been playing catch-up with its American counterpart. In this case, the two models have flip-flopped, adding more uncertainty to the forecast. Tony Gigi, a former weather service meteorologist who now helps the philly.wx weather-discussion board, suggested that the Euro seems to have performed well in predicting the behavior of the upper atmosphere, but PennDot doesn’t plow up there. More at link.... Pretty much sums it up in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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